Milei wins in Argentina
Nov. 20, 2023
Libertarian firebrand Javier Milei resoundingly won Argentina’s runoff election, yesterday, with nearly 56 percent of the vote. He beat Peronist Sergio Massa by nearly 12 points, and conceded defeat early yesterday evening, before official results were released. Milei won a majority in nearly all of the country’s provinces, a significant shift from the more evenly divided results in the general election. (Infobae)
It is the third electoral upset in the country’s protracted 2023 electoral cycle: pollsters had predicted a far narrower victory for Milei, well within the margin of error as of the last published polls.
While Milei had moved to temper his more extreme proposals in recent weeks, aiming at more moderate voters, yesterday he said his victory marks the beginning of Argentina's "reconstruction" and said "the situation is critical, the changes needed are drastic, there is no room for gradualism." In his speech last night, Milei also warned that resistance to his measures must occur within the framework of legality, a potential indicator that he would move to break up protests.
It is a leap into the unknown, and a repudiation of the current Peronist government, which presides over 142 percent inflation, which particularly afflicts the 40 percent of the country that lives in poverty. Massa, as Minister of Economy, faced a particularly uphill challenge promising change as representative of the movement that has governed for 16 of the past 20 years. Argentina hasn’t had economic growth in a decade, and even formal workers are below the poverty line, notes the Washington Post.
“Milei managed, in this depressing context, to light the spark of representation in a wide swath of citizens,” writes Carlos Pagni in La Nación. “He did not take the time to explain to those voters that he knew how bad they felt. He preferred to speak, shout, insult, gesticulate, like someone who feels like them. He knew how to connect with a climate of the time and, in a typical operation of the populist impulse, he captured the public's restlessness to redirect it towards the leadership. Towards what he called, repeating a word that expressed both the fascism of Benito Mussolini and Podemos, of Pablo Iglesias, caste.”
Milei was able to buttress his second-place finish in October’s general election with the votes of the conservative Juntos por el Cambio (JxC) coalition which did not make the runoff against Massa. The results simultaneously indicate a deep-seated anger at the political status quo and a visceral rejection of the Kirchner-led Peronists who have governed the country for most of the past twenty years. It is a major victory for former President Mauricio Macri who rapidly pivoted after his coalition came in third in October. (See last Wednesday’s post.)
In his first press appearances this morning, Milei has already promised to privatize the state oil company and public television, radio and news agency. (La Nación) He has been tight-lipped about his economic plan — while he maintains he will keep his campaign promises, dollarization (and the elimination of the Central Bank) were rumored internally to be more long-term projects than immediate policy proposals. (La Política Online)
But the transition period until Dec. 10 could be one of extreme economic volatility, particularly if widespread belief that dollarization could happen sparks a run on the peso, notes Al Jazeera. Panic could push the country over the edge to hyperinflation. A number of short-term price controls and subsidies have end-dates this week, and will further inflame inflation.
Milei’s Libertad Avanza has few of its own seats in Congress — though he will likely form an alliance with parts of the JxC. Yesterday he proffered an olive branch, of sorts, to politicians of the “caste” he has so often cursed against: “I want to tell all Argentines and all political leaders and all those who want to join the new Argentina: You’re going to be welcome,” he said. (New York Times)
Argentina’s economy has been further afflicted by a multi-year drought, but better rains are expected to boost next year’s harvest and the country’s finances could also receive an assist from a new gas pipeline and rising global demands for lithium. (Reuters)
(See also Associated Press)
More Argentina
Milei has promised to cut down on cabinet posts — he will have 8 ministries, compared to the current 18. (Infobae)
Regional Relations
Milei’s fiery rhetoric echos that of far-right leaders around the world, particularly that of former U.S. President Donald Trump. Milei received effusive congratulations from international right-wing leaders, including Trump, former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro, Spanish Vox leader Santiago Abascal and former Colombian president Iván Duque. Colombian President Gustavo Petro decried the “far right” victory, and was mocked by Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele. (Infobae)
While most countries in the region condemned Hamas’s initial attack against Israel, “their harsh response to the Israeli offensive in Gaza has only been equalled by that of Arab- and Muslim-majority countries,” reports Responsible Statecraft. “Experts who spoke with RS said it mostly comes down to three factors: Latin America’s increasing independence from the U.S.; the rise of left-wing and indigenous movements; and the presence of large Arab diasporas in much of the region.”
Jacobin traces the history of regional of solidarity with Palestine.
The U.S. State Department called Nicaragua’s formal withdrawal from the Organization of American States on Sunday “another step away from democracy,” reports the Associated Press.
Guatemala
Guatemala’s Attorney General’s office formally requested Friday that President-elect Bernardo Arévalo and others be stripped of their immunity so it can investigate them for allegedly encouraging the student occupation of the country’s only public university, reports the Associated Press. (See Friday’s post.)
In a statement on Saturday, the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights and its Office of the Special Rapporteur for Freedom of Expression, condemned the attorney general's office's "incessant improper actions and interference."
"These threaten the democratic order, the ongoing presidential transition process and the individual and collective exercise of civil and political liberties in the country," the statement said. (Reuters)
Ecuador
Ecuadorean lawmakers elected a conservative president on Friday, part of a new congressional alliance between president-elect Daniel Noboa and former president Rafael Correa’s leftist movement. The deal is part of "a great union to move the country forward," Noboa said last week. (Reuters)
Dominican Republic
At least 21 people have died in the Dominican Republic after heavy rain over the weekend which displaced thousands of residents, officials say. (BBC)
Brazil
Soaring temperatures last week in Brazil topped 40 centigrades last week — and feels-like temperatures reached a staggering 59.7C in Rio de Janeiro on Saturday. The record-breaking temperatures hit the poor the hardest, reports the Guardian.