Political battle lines redrawn ahead of Argentina's runoff
Nov. 15, 2023
Argentina’s runoff election on Sunday pits the chameleonic Peronist Sergio Massa against firebrand libertarian Javier Milei. While it is superficially a revamped version of the perennial battle between Peronism (in its many guises) and opponents, the battle lines have been redrawn in ways that make for surprising bedfellows.
Milei’s meteoric rise in just a few years was fueled by anger at the political establishment — what he calls the “caste.” But following the October first round, he joined forces with the Juntos por el Cambio conservative coalition, headed by former President Mauricio Macri. The move has made Milei “the mainstream conservatives' best shot at clinging onto power,” though it has also detonated an identify crisis that threatens to destroy the coalition, reports Reuters.
Milei could ride to victory on a wave of anti-government rejection — indeed, the latest data put inflation at 143%. But his extreme positions, particularly questioning democratic institutions and denying the atrocities of the last dictatorship — have alienated centrists. Many prominent critics of the government say Milei is a line in the sand.
The only vote in favor of democracy is in favor of Massa, writes Perfil editor Jorge Fontevecchia in a strongly worded endorsement that calls on readers to overcome (for him merited) visceral anti-peronism and political nihilism.
Looming behind Milei, and strengthening fears that the country’s “democratic pact” is at stake is his vice presidential candidate Victoria Villarruel, a dictatorship apologist who would spearhead a Milei administration’s security and defense areas. Yesterday she said she would dismantle a memorial museum housed in a former clandestine detention center where victims were held before being thrown alive out of airplanes into the Rio de la Plata. (El País)
She was absent at Milei’s campaign close, yesterday, and instead held a rally featuring a newly minted personal logo — a V stylized as a checkmark. Rumors are swirling that she is seen as the eventual leader should Milei prove emotionally unstable. (Perfil, La Política Online)
Pollsters, burned by successive surprise results in the first stages of this electoral cycle, are wary about making predictions about Sunday’s results, though the last polls published last week have the candidates neck to neck with a slight advantage for Milei. (Reuters)
Milei set the stage for potential challenges to the results, this week, with unsubstantiated allegations of fraud in the October first round. Milei’s Libertad Avanza alleged its ballots were tampered with at polling stations, and has insisted on self-distributing ballots on Sunday. The party has not filed formal complaints through the justice system, and critics say Milei’s strategy mimics that of Donald Trump in the United States and Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil. (El País)
Electoral authorities categorically denied the possibility of large-scale fraud in the election. (La Nación)
More Argentina
“Argentina’s election has quickly become a testing ground for A.I. in campaigns, with the two candidates and their supporters employing the technology to doctor existing images and videos and create others from scratch,” reports the New York Times. “A.I.’s prominent role in Argentina’s campaign and the political debate it has set off underscore the technology’s growing prevalence and show that, with its expanding power and falling cost, it is now likely to be a factor in many democratic elections around the globe.”
Regional
“Cartels are taking unprecedented control over daily life in Indigenous communities on the Mexico-Guatemala border. Amid increasing violence, many affected communities view the cartels as an existential threat—but also fear the prospect of a militarized international response,” reports Americas Quarterly.
Colombia
The high-profile kidnapping of the father of iconic footballer Luís Díaz has drawn public attention in Colombia to ongoing criminal actions committed by ELN despite a supposed ceasefire with the government, reports Pirate Wire Services.
ELN actions are again stirring up public debate (and trauma) over kinapping in Colombia, reports El País. The country’s largest remaining armed guerrilla force refuses to give up the practice, a ”recurring obstacle in attempts to negotiate a peace agreement.”
In certain rural areas of Colombia, “criminal groups often represent one of the few economic opportunities, using the promise of wealth –or force, if necessary – to recruit youth into their ranks. These recruitment practices perpetuate violence by strengthening armed groups,” a cycle the Petro government hopes to break with its beleaguered “Total Peace” plan, reports InSight Crime.
The Amazónico restaurant in Colombia’s Putumayo region aims to rescue Indigenous culinary traditions and introduce them to new audiences, reports the Guardian.
El Salvador
International media coverage of El Salvador this year has frequently involved articles marveling at President Nayib Bukele’s iron-fist policies. Though they note the tragic human rights cost, it is also important to understand that the “Bukele Method” also rests authoritarian concentration of power and repression of critics, I write in Cenital, part of a dossier of articles on the subject.
Bukele’s policies have created a “tropical gulag,” said Cristosal’s Noah Bullock in an interview with Cenital. Separately, El Faro’s José Luis Sanz writes that Bukele persecutes journalism because it challenges his victorious narrative.
And Juan Elman and I analyze why fears of real regional contagion are overblown — though the discursive impact has been significant. (Cenital)
Costa Rica
Costa Rica’s restorative justice model “enables a judge to recommend punishments other than prison time. It’s a brand of restorative justice that keeps certain convicts out of jail and gives both victims and perpetrators space to make amends and restitution,” reports El País, positing the approach as an “anti-Bukele.”
Honduras
Honduran President Xiomara Castro took steps in the direction of punitive populism, with a state of exception targeting gangs, but while the government has made mass arrests, it “has not incarcerated massive numbers of people, and the rate of prosecutions has remained relatively low,” writes Jennifer Ávila in El Faro.
A government attempt to force an interim-attorney general in the face of Congressional paralysis in the selection for the post has set the stage for deeper conflict, reports El Faro.
“The imposition of a government-aligned interim AG is also the most recent of signals that the political conditions for the prize international project in Honduras —Castro’s promise of a U.N.-backed anti-corruption commission called CICIH— may be fading.” (El Faro)
Nicaragua
The Organization of American States said last week that it will continue closely monitoring Nicaragua’s democracy and human rights record even after the country’s imminent exit from the regional body later this month, reports the Associated Press.
Mexico
Drought in Mexico is “being felt in the form of mass protests, economic threats, and increasing attention by the leading candidates in the country’s presidential race,” reports Americas Quarterly.
Jesús Ociel Baena “was a beacon for Mexico’s queer population, and their death this week has sent shock waves through an embattled community,” reports the Guardian. (See yesterday’s post.)