Milei disrupts Argentina's politics
Aug. 14, 2023
Libertarian Javier Milei was the most voted candidate in Argentina’s open primaries yesterday — signaling a major challenge to the political establishment by a vast number of citizens angered by an ever growing poverty rate and systematic economic crises.
The PASO effectively serves as a massive opinion poll ahead of October’s general election, but also gives an added push to the day’s winner, in this case an “outsider” who has promised to end the “political caste” and who thanked his “four legged children” in his victory speech.
Nonetheless, the results — essentially a three-way tie — leave a wide open election for October, with a likely second round in November, and significant uncertainty over how the large number citizens who abstained yesterday might impact results.
Milei came in first, but less than two points ahead of the combined results of the conservative Juntos por el Cambio coalition, and less than three ahead of the governing Unión por la Patria — a “thirds” scenario predicted by Vice President Cristina Ferández de Kirchner in May.
The major incognito moving forward is whether Milei will continue growing in voter support, or whether voters seeking to avoid an outsider president coalesce around another candidate. (Infobae)
Milei obtained victory in 16 of Argentina’s 24 provinces, defeating traditional Peronist strongholds across the country. JxC won in only three provinces, including Buenos Aires city, and UxP in 5, including Buenos Aires province. (The Road to the Casa Rosada) Milei’s victory is all the more impressive for his lack of party machinery, notes Mario Wainfeld in Página 12.
Thirty percent of voters abstained from voting yesterday — a record number in a presidential race, and in keeping with provincial elections this year that indicate significant rejection of the political status quo. Blank and null votes remained at historically regular levels, 4.73% yesterday. (Cenital)
Hawkish Patricia Bullrich beat the more centrist Horacio Rodríguez Larreta for the Juntos por el Cambio ticket, part of a general rightward swing among voters. It is unclear whether Rodríguez Larreta’s 11.29% voters will cast their votes for Bullrich in October, or migrate to other political spaces. Bullrich will have a difficult time increasing votes in the general election — her natural base overlaps with Milei, who is unlikely to lose voters in October.
Voters particularly punished the governing Unión por la Patria, which lost more than 20% since the 2019 primaries. But the opposition Juntos por el Cambio also lost support (especially in Cordoba province) and came in with a combined 3% less than in 2019. JxC lost more than 10 percent of support since the legislative elections of 2021, notes Ignacio Fidanza in La Política Online.
“Milei has pitched himself as the radical change that the collapsing Argentine economy needs,” reports the New York Times. He believes the country’s Central Bank should be abolished, doesn’t believe in climate change, wants to legalize the sale of human organs and loosen gun regulations. (Associated Press)
“Other parts of the “chainsaw plan” include eliminating 11 government ministries, reducing government spending by 15% of the country’s GDP, and privatizing or closing down state companies and agencies, among other austerity measures,” reports the Buenos Aires Herald.
It’s too soon to know whether Milei will overturn Argentina’s political status quo, or scare people into supporting the major coalitions that have dominated the past two decades. But analysts are pointing to a major political earthquake, a potential paradigm shift responding to deep-seated frustration at a political system that has no answers for too many citizens.
Public opinion analyst Shila Vilker, writing before the results, emphasized voter apathy “explained by the democratic failure to solve citizen issues and problems.” The result is reticence to support the system and its actors, she wrote in Newsweek.
Yesterday’s results indicate “too many people perceive that, as things are, it is very difficult to live in Argentina,” writes journalist Ernesto Tenenbaum in Infobae, comparing Milei to the rise of Juan Perón in 1946, but a leadership that would move the country in the opposite direction.
“You don't need a doctorate in sociology to notice that Argentine society is splintered, broken into a thousand pieces after a decade of stagnation, of an economy that doesn't work, nor does it resolve, nor does it show a way out, of a polarized political configuration that already it is of no use to anyone, from years of pandemic and inflation,” writes José Natanson in El Diplo, likening the results to a dagger blow by society to the democratic system.
Regional Relations
A U.S. congressional delegation including Democratic Representatives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Nydia Velázquez, as well as Senator Bernie Sanders’ chief-of-staff, begins a tour of three Latin American countries today. They will visit Brazil, Chile and Colombia, where they will meet with the country’s progressive presidents, and hold discussions with government officials, fellow lawmakers and civil society groups. (Politico)
The trip seeks to “promote a U.S.-Latin American relationship based on mutual respect, understanding and a commitment to cooperation,” reports El País. Along with “peace and democracy,” the environment is one of the trip’s three priorities. The visit is sponsored by the Center for Economic and Policy Research.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said “he hopes for the United States to want to invest in Brazil so the two countries can work to ‘drive the energy transition forward,’” reports Reuters.
Hedge-fund billionaire Paul Singer’s relationship to U.S. Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito “illuminates how U.S. law enables vulture funds to deepen immiseration across the Global South,” writes James North at Truthdig.
Haiti
“Killings, kidnappings, and sexual violence by criminal groups in and around Haiti’s capital, Port-au-Prince, have increased dramatically since the start of 2023 with a weak to non-existent state response,” Human Rights Watch said in a new report that “documents abuses committed by criminal groups and state inaction in four metropolitan Port-au-Prince communes” in the first four months of the year.
Haiti’s gangs have put the country’s musicians in a bind: perform for the criminals and be accused of collusion, or jeopardize loved ones by refusing to perform, reports the Miami Herald, which notes that Haitian “artists have long been a major influence in pacifying a volatile landscape and in political campaigns.”
Brazil
Thiago Menezes Flausino, who was killed in a police operation in Rio de Janeiro last week, is the ninth child to die in a shooting this year in the city. The case has sparked outrage, even in a city used to police violence, reports the Guardian. (See last Wednesday’s briefs.)
Brazil’s federal police “alleged former President Jair Bolsonaro received cash from the nearly $70,000 sale of two luxury watches he received as gifts from Saudi Arabia while in office,” reports the Associated Press. Officers raided the homes and offices of people purportedly involved in the case, Friday, including a four-star army general.
El Salvador
As El Salvador’s government cracks down on independent media "an expanding network of social media influencers are “acting as a megaphone” for President Nayib Bukele who has harnessed the flood of content, “slowly turning his Central American nation into an informational echo chamber,” reports the Associated Press.
Chile
Chilean Social Development Minister Giorgio Jackson resigned Friday, another blow to President Gabriel Boric, who loses a close confidant in the cabinet amid an ongoing corruption scandal affecting the administration’s ability to pass reforms, reports Bloomberg.
Ecuador
Journalist Christian Zurita will run for president in Ecuador, taking the place of Fernando Villavicencio who was assassinated last week, reports AFP. (See Thursday’s post.)
“The horror of the latest trauma etched on to the public consciousness, the country’s first political assassination, seems to be a defining sign of the times,” reports the Guardian. (See Friday’s post.)
Several presidential candidates promised iron fist policies against crime during a debate last night in which a podium was left empty for Villavicencio. (Reuters)
Thousands of Ecuadorian soldiers and police have been involved in a dawn operation to move notorious gang leader “Fito,” who is accused of threatening Villavicencio before his murder, to a maximum security jail, reports the BBC.
Venezuela
Venezuela's top prosecutor launched an investigation on Sunday into death threats against Delsa Solorzano, a presidential hopeful competing in an opposition primary in October. Solorzano, the head of the Citizen Encounter party, said said that death threats sent via social media were attributed to Colombia’s National Liberation Army (ELN). (Reuters)
Migration
“Nicaraguan labor represents 16% of the labor market in Costa Rica and is mainly focused on agriculture, construction, commerce and domestic work,” reports EFE, noting that the labor rights of Nicaraguan migrants are less respected than those of their Costa Rican counterparts. (Via Americas Migration Brief.)
El Estímulo highlights the importance of regularization and integration for Venezuelans in Costa Rica, noting high rates of underemployment.
Honduras
The IMF announced “a staff-level agreement with Honduras for a 36-month credit facility for about $830 million to support the country's economic reform policies,” reports Reuters.