Ecuador assassination is a turning point
Aug. 11, 2023
The assassination of Ecuadorean presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio on Wednesday “marked a dramatic turning point for a nation that a few years ago seemed an island of security in a violent region,” according to the New York Times. (See yesterday’s post.)
Ecuador is dealing with a surge in violent crime linked to criminal gangs, which has transformed the country from one Latin Americas safest into one of its most murderous, in just a few years.
But the killing “also reflected the how crime and politics have become entwined in the country, which sits sandwiched between the world’s two biggest cocaine exporters,” reports the Guardian.
The attack against an anti-corruption candidate was clearly aimed at derailing the Aug. 20 snap general election, according to President Guillermo Lasso. He said the U.S. FBI will assist in the investigation to find the culprits.
The gunman, who was shot and detained by authorities at the scene, died in police custody. “The man had a tattoo associated with the Latin Kings, a gang founded by Puerto Ricans in the United States in the 1950s that today has affiliates in several countries. The Ecuadoran chapter is one of several criminal groups fighting for control of cities and prisons,” reports the Washington Post.
The vote will proceed as scheduled, with military security to protect polling stations. The two-month state of emergency Lasso declared this wee declared will prohibit large gatherings, potentially barring candidates from rallies.
But militarization will only make the problem worst, argues Jorge Núñez in the Guardian. “The government has little political power over police and security policy. … The government needs to recognise the role of the state in the production of prison and street violence – and reorient its strategy. The “war on drugs” is not the answer.”
Argentina’s primaries
Argentina heads to the polls on Sunday — voters will participate in the open, simultaneous and obligatory primaries (PASO). While most political coalitions are not actually fielding competing candidates, the results of the PASO are a critical test of voter intent and a strong showing can significantly influence the October general election. Regardless of the winner, the general field of front-runners indicates a rightward shift for Argentina under the next government.
The end of the campaign has been dominated by the killing of a girl in a drive-by robbery in Buenos Aires — which has caused widespread outrage, and could either increase support for mano-dura candidates or voter abstention. The economy is a major issue, with over 100% interanual inflation, and a rapidly weakening currency. Nearly half the country’s population is poor, and food insecurity is rising. (EFE) A political activist died yesterday while being detained by police in Buenos Aires. (See below and yesterday’s briefs.)
Polls vary widely — and are less than trustworthy — though many indicate a virtual tie in the total votes between the governing Unión por la Patria coalition and the conservative Juntos por el Cambio coalition, with the libertarian Libertad Avanza in close third.
Centrist Horacio Rodríguez Larreta is dueling against the hawkish Patricia Bullrich for the JxC nomination — polls put them in a virtual tie of approximately 16% each. The results of this race could redefine the space founded by former President Mauricio Macri, who supports Bullrich.
UxP’s mostly unity candidate, Economy Minister Sergio Massa, is likely to be the most voted candidate on Sunday (a relevant metric ahead of October), with polls putting his support between 25 and 28%. Leftist government supporters are throwing their weight behind social movement leader Juan Grabois, who is expected to obtain about 6% on Sunday, though rumors indicate he might have a stronger showing — strengthening his hand as a progressive interlocutor within the Peronist movement.
Outsider candidate Javier Milei, who has been compared to Donald Trump, Jair Bolsonaro and José Kast, is likely to be the second most voted candidate on Sunday. While most analysts believe he will not win the election in October, widespread anger at the political establishment and apathy could well fuel an outsider upset.
There is an unusually high number of undecided voters, and blank votes and abstentions are expected to be high. It is very likely that there will be no majority winner in October’s election, meaning there will be a runoff vote in November.
(Reuters, El País, Associated Press, Bloomberg)
More on the candidates at AS/COA and Americas Quarterly
More Argentina
A political activist died of a heart attack while being detained by police at a protest by the Buenos Aires Obelisk, yesterday. “Witnesses described how one police officer knelt on (the protester)’s neck while another placed a knee on his head,” reports the Buenos Aires Herald. A journalist filming the scene is recorded exhorting police to stop because the victim is red and “having an attack.”
The death could spark anger against Rodríguez Larreta, who is mayor of Buenos Aires. (Associated Press)
Brazil
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva unveiled a $350 billion infrastructure investment program this morning, aimed at bolstering the country’s economy and fostering a green transition, reports Bloomberg.
Regional
Scientists have confirmed reefs in Panama, Colombia, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Mexico and six countries in the Caribbean, including the Bahamas and Cuba, are suffering significant bleaching. The news has provoked concerns of a global event, reports the Guardian.
Haiti
Haiti’s “prison system is a black box, routinely holding suspects in pretrial detention for prolonged periods — often for longer than their potential maximum sentences — without charging or trying them,” reports the Washington Post.
Mexico
Mexico’s poverty rate declined from 49.9% of the population in 2018 to 43.5% in 2022, according to newly published government data. (Reuters)
Mexico’s government said it will launch a military-run airline, made possible by the purchase of the brand of the defunct Mexicana de Aviación. President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has increasingly militarized traditionally civilian-led duties in the aviation sector. Administration of the Mexico City International Airport was handed to the navy this week, reports Reuters.
Chile
Chilean President Gabriel Boric said he would oppose a proposal from conservative leaders in Congress to allow private lithium concessions. Under Boric's April plan, future lithium contracts would only be issued as public-private partnerships under the government's control, reports Reuters.
Poverty in Chile reached a historic low. Income poverty was 6.5% in 2022, down from 10.5% in 2020. (See yesterday’s Chile Update.)
Chile’s Constitutional Council, dominated by right-wing politicians, submitted more than 1,000 amendments to the preliminary Constitution draft prepared by a Commission of Experts. Right wing commission members — who have the majority — have promised to eliminate abortion and undermine public education and health. (See yesterday’s Chile Update.)
Colombia
Colombia’s electoral authority asked the country’s tax agency to turn over information on President Gustavo Petro’s former campaign manager, reports Bloomberg. Petro’s presidential campaign is being investigated for potential mismatches between revenue and expenses reported to the electoral authority, in the midst of allegations of illegal financing.
Venezuela
The mass arrest of 33 people at an LGBT club in Venezuela provoked public backlash, and increased concern over the Maduro government’s courting of anti-gay religious groups, reports Al Jazeera.