Maduro digs in

Aug. 1, 2024

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro seems determined to wait out the national and international outrage over official election results that gave him a second reelection on Sunday evening.

Repression is increasing: there have been at least 20 deaths related to anti-government protests this week. Opposition leader María Corina Machado said at least 11 people have been disappeared, and 177 arbitrarily detained. The government announced yesterday that over 1,000 people have been arrested in relation to post-election unrest. (Infobae, Efecto Cocuyo)

Venezuelan rights group Provea said lawyers have been blocked from defending people who were detained at protests, and that family members are not being able to see relatives who are arrested.

In a press conference yesterday Maduro accused Machado and his challenger in Sunday’s elections, Edmundo González, of having “blood on their hands” and vowed they would “never, never, never attain political power.” (Infobae)

Venezuelan security forces are detaining volunteer observers who monitored the presidential election, according to opposition leaders. Maduro has encouraged Venezuelans to report protesters who dispute the claim that he won, reports the Washington Post.

The electoral authority has not released detailed vote tallies and opposition counts based on electronic voting machine printouts indicate that a Maduro win is a mathematical impossibility. (See yesterday’s briefs.)

Amid growing international calls for authorities to make public the detailed results, Maduro took the case to Venezuela’s Supreme Court (the judges of which he has appointed and which earlier this week congratulated him on his electoral victory), yesterday. He called on all parties to submit their results to the tribunal, a move critics say would allow him to sidestep calls to publish detailed voting results.

The Carter Center, which sent a delegation to Venezuela to monitor the election, criticized Maduro’s audit request, saying the court would not provide an independent review, reports the Associated Press.

International efforts led by the U.S., Brazil, Colombia and Mexico are reportedly focusing on negotiating a pact between the government and the opposition that would give either side immunity from judicial persecution — essentially an offramp for Maduro. (El País)

Earlier today Reuters reported that “Maduro has requested a phone call with his Brazilian counterpart Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva”.

In the meantime Venezuela’s isolation is growing. International flights are increasingly limited and Caracas’ streets were empty as people sought to avoid turbulence, reports the Guardian.

“He’s counting on being able to wait this out and people will get tired of demonstrating,” Wilson Center fellow Cynthia Arnson told the Associated Press. “The problem is the country is in a death spiral and there’s no chance the economy will be able to recover without the legitimacy that comes from a fair election.”

More Venezuela

• Today Brazil “took over administration of the Argentine and Peruvian embassies in Venezuela after those countries' diplomats were expelled over their criticism” of the election results, reports Reuters.

• An effort to pass an OAS resolution calling on Venezuela to publish results and submit to international verification foundered yesterday — though no country voted against, Brazil and Colombia were joined by several Caribbean nations in abstaining. Mexico refused to attend the meeting. (Diario.ar)

• As Venezuela’s electoral standoff moves into uncharted territory, Maduro has dug in his heels, hindered by the lack of an offramp for him and associates, reports the Associated Press.

Guatemala

• Guatemalan attorney general Consuelo Porras accused President Bernardo Arévalo of seeing to take over the Public Ministry. Yesterday she asked the country’s Constitutional Court to oust government officials and prosecute Arévalo. Porras sought to block Arévalo’s election, and has been sanctioned by the U.S. (Prensa Libre, Soy 502)

Mexico

• Mexico’s ruling MORENA coalition is angling to advance with a series of controversial reforms proposed by President Andrés Manuel López Obrador — including judicial changes that would make judges elected — ahead of the end of his mandate in two months. (Bloomberg)

Regional Relations

• Elon Musk’s criticisms of Maduro fit the tech mogul’s pattern “of denouncing leftist ideals and socialism,” notes the New York Times.

• Brazil’s Bolsonaristas “remain focused on the United States. They are hopeful that changing international conditions will place their movement on surer footing: first to survive the judicial onslaught that threatens many of them, and then to retake power,” writes Vincent Bevins in the New York Times Magazine.

Bolivia

• Bolivian transportation unions started a national strike yesterday to protest fuel shortages. (Reuters)

Haiti

• Kenyan security forces in Haiti started to secure town of Ganthier from violent gangs — but tanks rolled out in less than 24 hours, gang members immediately returned and “what should have been a mission that inspired confidence in what an armed international force could mean for restoring security in Haiti is instead underscoring its shortcomings as a small, under-resourced effort,” reports the Miami Herald.

Argentina

• Argentina’s government said it will use AI for citizen security, but experts say the plan to “predict future crimes” could threaten human rights, reports the Guardian.

Uruguay

• “Google’s plans to build a datacentre in Uruguay have angered environmentalists, who say the project will release thousands of tonnes of carbon dioxide and hazardous waste,” reports the Guardian.