Show Me the Tally Sheets
July 31, 2024
Anti-government protests continued in Venezuela yesterday as the government of Nicolás Maduro maintains its refusal to release detailed election results. Venezuela’s electoral authority claims Maduro won his second reelection on Sunday, but opposition parties say the data they have accessed through independent monitors shows a landslide win for Edmundo González. Stores around the country were closed today and public transportation limited, reports Reuters.
Human Rights Watch said it has received 20 credible reports of protest related deaths.
The United Nations Human Rights Council expressed concern about a potential wave of repression against opposition leaders. Yesterday Freddy Superlano and two people were kidnapped, possibly by the SEBIN intelligence agency. Yesterday Attorney General Tarek William Saab announced an investigation against the main opposition leader, María Corina Machado, linking her to an alleged cyberattack against the electoral system on Sunday. Jorge Rodríguez, head of the government-loyal congress, called for Machado and González’s arrest today, saying “fascism is not forgiven.” (Infobae)
Yesterday Saab said 749 protesters were arrested Monday. The Venezuela-based human rights organization Foro Penal reported yesterday that 11 people, including two minors, had been killed in unrest related to the election. (Associated Press, see yesterday’s post.) Families in Caracas said four more people, not included in Foro Penal’s count, were killed at protests, reports the New York Times. The Ministry of Defense said that a soldier also died after being shot in the neck, and 48 police officers and soldiers were injured. (See Runrun.es for more details.)
Maduro on Wednesday presented a writ of protection request (amparo) to the electoral section of the country’s Supreme Court.
International pressure on Venezuela for vote count
The international community is pressuring Venezuela’s government to release detailed results of Sunday’s presidential election. Yesterday Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and U.S. President Joe Biden jointly called on Venezuela to release “full, transparent, and detailed voting data at the polling station level by the Venezuelan electoral authorities." (AFP)
Since taking office in 2023, Lula has maintained a conciliatory stance towards Maduro, an approach aimed at pushing for democratization through mediation, rather than the international isolation favored by right-wing governments in the region. Yesterday he maintained this stance, telling Brazilian media that disagreement over the results is “normal” and could be “resolved” by releasing polling-station-level voting data and ultimately determined by courts. (Globo)
This morning Colombian President Gustavo Petro called for transparency and peace, also noting the deleterious effect of U.S. sanctions on the Venezuelan economy. He called for an agreement between the government and the opposition under the auspices of the United Nations. (Efecto Cocuyo)
Mexican president-elect Claudia Sheinbaum called for transparency, and President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said yesterday that the results must be made public.(Infobae) Today AMLO said there was no evidence of fraud, but that full results must be made public. (El País)
Former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet, who also headed the UN’s Human Rights office until 2022, called for full transparency regarding the election results. On Sunday the current Chilean president, Gabriel Boric, said the country would only recognize credible results. (Efe)
Outside of the region a growing chorus of voices has joined calls for full results, including Norway’s Foreign Ministry (which mediated negotiations between Maduro and the opposition), Bernie Sanders, and the Socialist International. The EU failed to put out a united statement (reportedly blocked by Hungary) but chief diplomat Josep Borrell published a statement in his own name saying “credible reports from domestic and international observers indicate that the elections were marred by numerous flaws and irregularities.” (Politico)
Yesterday evening the Carter Center, one of the only observation groups permitted by the Venezuelan government, released a critical report — after having first removed its personnel from Venezuela: “The electoral authority’s failure to announce disaggregated results by polling station constitutes a serious breach of electoral principles,” the Carter Center said. The group, which had a technical mission of 17 experts spread out in four cities across Venezuela, added that the election did not meet international standards and “cannot be considered democratic.” (Associated Press)
“In the limited number of polling centers they visited, Carter Center observer teams noted the desire of the Venezuelan people to participate in a democratic election process, as demonstrated through their active participation as polling staff, party witnesses, and citizen observers. However, their efforts were undermined by the CNE's complete lack of transparency in announcing the results.”
Past efforts at negotiating an orderly transition have foundered on intransigence by the Maduro coalition, argues David Smilde in Responsible Statecraft. “However, having sunk to a new low in international and national credibility as a result of Sunday’s election and the way the government has (mis)handled it, perhaps the coalition could be open to renewed efforts at negotiation.”
Tallies
The Plataforma Unida Democrática opposition coalition said it has now gathered tally sheets corresponding to 81.21 percent of the polling machines — according to the data they have posted, González obtained 67 percent, a landslide over Maduro’s 30 percent. The data comes from printouts from individual voting machines, obtained by polling monitors not only for PUD, but also other candidates, reports David Smilde in Responsible Statecraft.
The results differ wildly from the electoral authority’s announcement putting Maduro in the lead on Sunday. The CNE has not released any detailed data supporting it’s initial announcement. (Associated Press)
More Venezuela
A Caracas-based civil society-run parallel vote tabulation initiative — which remains anonymous due to threats against members — uses official tallies from “a representative sample of local voting centers” to extrapolate results, and puts González’s share of the vote at 66 percent. (Washington Post, Globo)
“A former U.S. Green Beret who organized a failed crossborder raid in 2020 to remove President Nicolas Maduro has been arrested in New York,” reports the Associated Press.
Migration
United States-Mexico border arrests plummeted about 30 percent this month, raising prospects that the Biden administration’s temporary ban on asylum could be lifted soon, reports the Associated Press.
“Republicans blame Vice President Kamala Harris for the surge of migrants into the United States over the past several years. But a review of her involvement shows a more nuanced record,” reports the New York Times.