Venezuela’s upcoming elections
July 12, 2024
Venezuela will head to the polls to elect a new president on July 28, in what could be the country’s freest and fairest elections in over a decade. In Foreign Policy, Christopher Sabatini chronicles the efforts the Maduro government has taken to turn the upcoming elections - “one which represents the best possibility for Venezuelans’ hopes for change in recent memory” - in its favor and discredit any potential unfavorable outcome, despite outcry from the opposition and the international community.
Some actions taken by the government include Maduro’s face appearing 13 times on the ballot, compared to the other nine candidates, whose faces show up once or twice, explains AP News. The government also disqualified popular opposition candidate Maria Corina Machado from running, and later disqualified her chosen successor, Corina Yoris, as well. Former diplomat Edmundo González Urrutia will represent the unified opposition on the ballot.
The Washington Post editorial board calls for increased and constant attention from the international community in calling for a free and fair election, arguing that “This might be Venezuela’s last, and best, chance to end a generation of misrule.”
“For better or worse, the election scheduled for July 28 will change Venezuela, with outsized implications for the United States and the entire Western Hemisphere,” write Andrés Gluski and Susan Segal in Americas Quarterly, noting previous (and potentially ongoing) negotiations with the U.S. regarding the lifting of sanctions on the Venezuelan oil sector. “July 28 now looks like an inevitable transition to something else,” they say, laying out possible scenarios depending on the electoral outcome. CSIS’ Ryan Berg and Alexandra Winkler deep dive into four potential scenarios before, after, and during election day.
The Economist emphasizes the closeness of this election, which stands to end over a decade of increasingly undemocratic rule of the country.
More Venezuela
Yesterday, the U.S. Treasury Department designated the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua as a transnational criminal organization and imposed sanctions on the group, says Reuters. Colombian police, alongside the U.S. Embassy in Colombia, announced up to a $12 million reward for “information leading to the arrests and/or convictions in any country” of the group’s leaders, according to El País.
Brazil
Federal police have issued five preliminary arrest warrants for a “criminal organization” that allegedly operated from within Brazil’s intelligence agency during the Bolsonaro administration to illegally spy on legislators, journalists, and members of the judiciary, reports AP News.
According to the Guardian, the long-standing investigation found that the agency was used to spy on political rivals and/or those who sought to uphold the country’s democratic institutions.
Mexico
President-Elect Claudia Sheinbaum has chosen Lazaro Cardenas to be her chief of staff once she takes office. Cardenas, a former congressman and governor, is “an icon of the Mexican left,” says Reuters.
The Guardian highlights the slow but steady decline of state-owned oil company Pemex, and notes how government efforts to increase the company’s productivity have come at the expense of certain renewable energy initiatives.
Climate expert and President-Elect Claudia Sheinbaum has the opportunity to push for an energy transition, but her platform may not be compatible with the policies of her mentor, outgoing president Andrés Manuel López Obrador, says the Washington Post.
Haiti
In the Miami Herald, Jennie Murray argues in favor of adjustments to the U.S. immigration system, including pausing deportations to Haiti, to help Haitians fleeing their country’s crisis.
Uruguay
The country’s fiscal deficit, registered at 4.4%, is comparable to levels from 2019 when the previous administration held office, reports MercoPress. The failure by the current administration to improve certain economic indicators, of which the fiscal deficit was a primary campaign promise, could affect the outcome of the upcoming presidential elections.
Guatemala
A new report by the Inter-American Dialogue outlines specific actions the Arévalo administration can take to improve democratic measures in the country.
Argentina
In the Foreign Policy Latin America Brief, Catherine Osborn assesses President Milei’s “predictably unpredictable” administration during his past seven months in office.