El País notes two of the main hurdles facing Venezuela’s opposition movement ahead of Sunday’s elections: mobilizing the population and preventing electoral fraud, and ensuring that the military recognizes the results of the election.
In Journal of Democracy, Paola Bautista de Aleman assesses four reasons why opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia could win the election despite concerns over a free and fair voting process, citing a unified strength the opposition has not had in years, and a strong citizen desire for change.
In Americas Quarterly, pollster Félix Seijas Rodríguez notes how polls ahead of Sunday’s election are strongly inclined towards an opposition victory, in contrast to previous elections where the ruling Chavista movement was heavily favored.
As Caracas Chronicles reports, more and more women are playing prominent roles in Venezuelan politics, despite the predominant machista culture in the country.
María Corina Machado, leader of the opposition movement, declared that she and opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia would be “willing to ensure a peaceful transition” and engage in negotiations with the Maduro administration in the event of an electoral victory, according to El País.
The Wall Street Journal chronicles how the Venezuelan government is targeting dissidents not only within the country’s borders, but those living in entirely different countries, as well.
The U.S. Institute of Peace outlines various roles the U.S. could play in reaching a solution to Venezuela’s multiple crises and achieving a peaceful and effective transition of power in the country.
Reuters profiles Maria Corina Machado, the leader of the Venezuelan opposition whose presidential candidacy was disqualified following a ban on holding public office for 15 years by the Maduro-controlled Supreme Court.
In a new Wilson Center policy brief, Francisco Monaldi outlines how U.S. sanctions are impacting Venezuela’s oil industry, and argues that the U.S. should continue its “pragmatic” policy of licenses for foreign oil companies to operate in Venezuela, regardless of the electoral outcome, to help boost oil production.
Brazil
Nine ministries and two other federal agencies were the targets of a hacker attack in Brazil last night, according to Folha. There is still no defined timeline for the restoration of the affected systems, which included the ministries of Management, Finance, Indigenous Peoples, Planning and Budget, Development, Industry, Commerce and Services, Entrepreneurship, Micro and Small Business, Social Security, Racial Equality, Women, the Brazilian Mint, and Coaf (Financial Activities Control Council).
Regional Relations
The Brazilian Report notes the potential shift in Brazil-Venezuela relations under Brazilian President Lula, as Lula demonstrated a closeness to Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, reversing the antagonistic posture of former President Jair Bolsonaro. The outcome of Sunday’s elections in Venezuela, however, could affect the relationship between the two countries.
Energy
Bolivia has begun receiving oil and refined products from Russia amid a fuel shortage, highlighting Russia’s expansion across the region, reports Reuters. Brazil, Venezuela, Jamaica, and Cuba are also recipients of Russian fuel.
The outcome of Venezuela’s elections have the potential to significantly impact global energy transition and climate goals, considering the country’s large oil supply, despite decades of mismanagement of the sector, writes Luisa Palacios in Americas Quarterly. There is also the possibility that the elections result in a lifting of U.S. sanctions on the sector, which would improve productivity.
Mexico
A decline in domestic crude supply, with supply at its lowest amount in over four decades, may impede Mexico’s goal of achieving energy independence as it may be forced to import crude from other countries, says Reuters.
Last week, Mexico city almost unanimously passed a law to address and criminalize transfemicide, or the killing of a trans woman because of her gender, a crime accompanied by a prison sentence of up to 70 years, reports the Guardian. The decision represents a “watershed” moment for the country and the region.
Archaeologist-turned-forensic scientist Roxana Enríquez Farias, through the Mexican Forensic Anthropology Team, helps lead the search for the bodies of those disappeared over the course of Mexico’s history, filling a gap that has been left by the federal government, writes Amy Reed-Sandoval in the New Yorker.
In Foreign Policy, Connor Pfeiffer and Ryan Berg argue that the U.S. should see Mexico as a strategic partner in the region and internationally, especially as the northern country seeks to curtail China’s regional and global influence.
Argentina
Argentina’s “CC” rating from credit rating agency Fitch indicates that the company believes “a restructuring or default of some kind on the bonds” is likely, despite President Javier Milei’s assurances to the contrary, says MercoPress.
According to the Buenos Aires Times, cryptocurrency usage in Argentina is incredibly high, given the country’s economic and social factors, including limited accessibility to foreign currency. A Forbes study indicated that “Argentina has the highest cryptocurrency adoption rate of any country in the Western Hemisphere.”
Milei will arrive in France today to meet with his counterpart and attend the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games, reports AP news. The meeting between the two heads of state will likely include a discussion over recent racist chants by the Argentine national soccer team, aimed towards the French.