Venezuela hurtles towards unfree elections
July 22, 2024
Venezuela heads to the polls on Sunday, in watershed presidential election. Voters are angry at Nicolás Maduro’s government, and massively favor an opposition bid for change. But in a context of political repression and violence, the election is not free and fair, and nobody expects things to play out linearly.
Possibilities to thwart the results include last minute disqualification of opposition candidate Edmundo González or massive fraud, though either option could trigger street unrest, reports AFP. Experts say a transition is difficult without an immunity agreement for Maduro.
International support from the U.S. could create a legal off-ramp for Maduro and allies, “so that if the president loses, he will agree to give up power,” wrote Roberto Patiño in a New York Times op-ed last week. “It is an opportunity that won’t come around again anytime soon, and the window to seize it is rapidly closing.”
“At this point Maduro has no good options,” Geoff Ramsey, a Venezuela expert at the Atlantic Council told the Financial Times. “His least bad may be to ban the opposition and move forward with a sham election but that will likely provoke an international backlash.”
More Venezuela
Analysts and opposition leaders say Venezuela’s electoral authorities have made organizational decisions aimed at confusing voters and creating obstacles to a free presidential organization, reports Reuters. (See last Friday’s briefs.)
Venezuela’s ballot features 38 political parties. “They make the election feel legitimate and democratic, even though the electoral process has already been considered far from fair,” reports the New York Times. The confusing ballot features pictures of incumbent Nicolás Maduro prominently and multiple times, one of the many ways the government is skewing Sunday’s election in its favor, according to analysts.
In the absence of an independent electoral authority, thousands of opposition supporters are organizing grassroots efforts to mobilize and support voters in the election, reports the Associated Press. “The Unitary Platform coalition hopes the mere presence of large numbers of watchful voters outside polling places will neutralize some ruling party strategies that in the past left them without representatives inside the facilities, kept them away from vote counts and rendered them voiceless in the event of irregularities.”
Maduro said Friday that Venezuela would face a “bloodbath” and “civil war” if he is not reelected. (Infobae)
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva urged Venezuela's government to respect the result of the presidential election, saying he was "scared" by Maduro’s bloodbath remarks, reports Reuters. "I have told Maduro that the only chance for Venezuela to return to normality is to have a widely respected electoral process," Lula said.
There are serious doubts over whether Maduro would accept an electoral loss — “the Biden administration is particularly concerned that the Maduro government could claim victory without verifiable results,” reports the New York Times.
Opposition leader María Corina Machado’s security chief was released from jail last week, a day after he was arrested on charges of gender violence. “Venezuela's opposition has repeatedly denounced arrests and other moves by the authorities that they say are meant to harm its election campaign and prevent a fair election,” reports Reuters.
It was just the latest in a series of logistical headaches faced by the opposition campaign, in the midst of government harassment that includes arresting local vendors who provide services such as food or sound equipment, reports the Washington Post.
In Guyana’s Essequibo region, residents are warily watching Venezuela’s electoral process: while there haven’t been new developments regarding Venezuela’s claim of Guyana’s territory, analysts say that Maduro could fabricate a crisis in order to drum up support or in order to overturn a negative election result. (Guardian)
In the midst of electoral uncertainty, Venezuela’s long catastrophic economy has experienced a measure of improvement — estimates peg this year’s growth rate at 4.2%, reports El País.
Regional Relations
Venezuela is “a model for digital authoritarianism and an exporter of democratic backsliding to the rest of the Americas,” according to a new report from the Atlantic Council.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said Friday that his administration was putting together “a proposal to join” the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s flagship infrastructure and investment project. (South China Morning Post)
Mexican president-elect Claudia Sheinbaum criticized U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump for his “rude” language after he gave a speech recounting his past negotiations with incoming economy minister Marcelo Ebrard. The comments mark a potentially tense relationship, reports Bloomberg.
Current Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador called Trump “a friend” and said he would write to the former U.S. president to warn him against pledging to close the border or blaming migrants for bringing drugs into the United States, reports the Associated Press.
Mexico
Sheinbaum’s cabinet picks have confirmed continuity with the outgoing López Obrador administration — this month she announced that current welfare and labour ministers, who manage more than $30 billion of annual spending for social programs central to the ruling Morena party’s popularity, will stay on, reports the Financial Times.
Most Mexicans feel the country’s justice system is broken — but the reform championed by AMLO focuses on the wrong issue, how judges are chosen. The government’s “proposal will do nothing to address the true bottleneck in Mexico’s justice system: prosecutors’ willingness and capacity to investigate,” argues Human Rights Watch researcher Tyler Mattiace in Americas Quarterly.
Guatemala
“The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Turk, said on Friday that democracy in Guatemala "remains in danger," despite election winner Bernardo Arevalo assuming the presidency this year after a post-electoral crisis.” — Reuters
Migration
Panama's government expects to start deportation flights for migrants crossing the Darién gap within two to three months, according to the country’s new migration chief. (Reuters)
At least 40 people died after a boat carrying about 80 Haitian migrants caught fire last week. (Reuters, New York Times) The tragedy was apparently triggered by matches used in a Vodou ceremony, reports the Miami Herald.
Haiti
Haitian Prime Minister Gary Conille enjoys support among individual members of the presidential council that named him to the post, but his relation with them as a group has become increasingly strained since he took office in June: last week a dinner hosted by a member of the presidential council “erupted into a near fight
between Conille and the head of one of the sectors represented on the council,
Claude Joseph, a former foreign minister and former prime minister,” reports the Miami Herald.
The U.S.’s ambassador to the U.N. arrived in Haiti today and will push the presidential council to advance towards elections in order to have an elected government by February 2026. “Though the presidential council has started the process of forming a nine-member Provisional Electoral Council, there has been conflict and criticism already over how the members will be chosen,” reports the Miami Herald.
Colombia
Colombian President Gustavo Petro inaugurated a new session of Congress on Saturday, and promised to propose legislation aimed at overhauling the health sector and to pursue labor reform, reports the Associated Press.
The AQ podcast looks at Petro’s government so far, “trying to separate rhetoric from reality, understand areas where his government has been successful and identify challenges and risks in his remaining two years in office.”
Argentina
Argentine President Javier Milei’s market honeymoon is ending, according to the Financial Times. “Investors are concerned that controlling inflation at all costs is now distracting from the other ingredients for Argentina’s long-term recovery: the removal of currency controls, accumulation of reserves and access to international capital markets.”
Milei’s sister and main advisor, Karina, apologized to France after Vice President Victoria Villarruel called the European country "colonialist" and its people "hypocrites" in an argument over alleged racist chants by Argentine footballers, reports the Buenos Aires Times. The episode comes as Milei gears up to travel to France for the 2024 Olympics.
Last week ruling Libertad Avanza lawmakers visited individuals convicted and sentenced to jail time for crimes against humanity committed during Argentina's brutal 1976-1983 military dictatorship — including Alfredo Astiz, convicted in the case of two French nuns who were killed after he infiltrated Madres de Plaza de Mayo. (El País, Buenos Aires Times, Perfil)
Brazil
The Brazilian government’s push for a National Care Policy has put women’s caregiving burden on the public agenda — Brazilian Report.
Varî Vãti Marubo is well past 100 years old, and may be the oldest person still living deep in the Amazon rainforest, reports the New York Times.
Peru
A record 54 parties have filed paperwork to participate in Peru’s 2026 presidential elections. The sheer number “raises the risk that candidates with very little popular support may face off in a second-round election, fueling uncertainty,” reports Bloomberg.
Among the candidates is former President Alberto Fujimori, though he is legally barred from running. Fujimori was convicted in 2009 of involvement in the killing of 25 Peruvians during his administration in 1992, has three convictions on corruption charges and owes about $15 million to the Treasury, reports AFP.
Peruvian President Dina Boluarte, "not only maintained constant communication" with police and military commanders who killed dozens of protesters in 2022, but "decided to promote officials who had played key roles during these operations," according to a new Amnesty International report. (Reuters)
Thank you to Jordi Amaral and Arianna Kohan for their amazing work on the Latin American Daily Briefing during my break.