Venezuela deal expected today
Oct. 17, 2023
Venezuela’s Maduro government and members of the political opposition are scheduled to sign an agreement on electoral conditions for next year’s presidential election, paving the way for U.S. sanctions relief. (See yesterday’s briefs.)
Norway’s foreign ministry announced on social media yesterday that Venezuela’s government and opposition would meet in Bridgetown, Barbados, today to “restart the dialogue and negotiation process” which broke down in November last year. U.S. officials are expected to attend. (Guardian)
The Washington Post reported yesterday that under the new deal, President Nicolás Maduro would agree to a process for lifting bans on opposition candidates running for president: “The deal, which follows multiple attempts at negotiation between the Maduro government and opposition, would be the most significant progress in Venezuela’s political stalemate in years. It also suggests a willingness on behalf of the Biden administration to provide incentives to Maduro in the hopes of ensuring free and fair presidential elections in 2024.”
The sanctions will be reimposed if Maduro fails to stick to the terms of the agreement, according to the Associated Press. Nonetheless, some in the opposition are skeptical that Maduro will follow through, reports Reuters.
The announcement comes less than a week ahead of opposition primaries in Venezuela, aimed at fielding a unity candidate against Maduro. Polls suggest María Corina Machado will win the primaries. She is officially banned from holding office in Venezuela, and today’s deal would, reportedly, entail lifting the ban, according to Reuters.
Maduro is likely run for a third presidential term next year, easing of sanctions would give his government a financial lifeline to drum up support, reports Bloomberg.
More Venezuela
“UN Secretary-General António Guterres has given the green light for the UN to start administering a new fund worth hundreds of millions of dollars to address emergency needs in Venezuela,” according to The New Humanitarian.
Guatemalan protester killed
Guatemala’s interior minister resigned after a protester was killed in clashes with an armed group, yesterday. A government statement said some 50 people carrying firearms, wooden planks and stones, tried to dissolve a protest in Malacatan, and 11 people were detained for their role in the violence, reports Reuters. Soy 502 reports an intense shooting.
Indigenous-led protests, including road blocks, have called for the resignation of attorney general Consuelo Porras for the past two weeks, in response to efforts to overturn the victory of anti-corruption president-elect Bernardo Arévalo.
Separately a community in Totonicapán detained ten Guatemalan soldiers who sought to disrupt protests, reports Prensa Libre.
More Guatemala
“ Citizens are in the streets protecting democracy and making sure the world continues to pay attention to the fact that the country’s ruling elite want to halt the transition of power. As a result, this moment has the potential to be a success story for citizen activism on the ground and democracy advocates internationally,” argues James Bosworth in World Politics Review.
Colombia
Colombia’s government signed a three-month cease-fire agreement with the FARC-EMC rebel group, and formally initiated peace talks. The dissident FARC group is currently Colombia’s third largest armed group, with around 3,500 members, reports the Associated Press.
Regional Relations
Israel suspended security exports to Colombia in an escalating diplomatic spat with President Gustavo Petro who has compared Israel’s siege of Gaza to the actions of Nazi Germany, reports the Associated Press. Petro has doubled down on his criticism and suggested that his country may need to suspend diplomatic relations with Israel.
Yesterday, “Colombia’s foreign minister, Álvaro Leyva Durán, joined the quarrel, condemning the Israeli ambassador’s “mindless boorishness” towards Petro and hinting that he should leave his post,” reports the Guardian.
An estimated 22 Argentine citizens are believed to be among the hostages held by Hamas in Gaza. (Página 12)
Chile has always been at the forefront of China's relations with Latin American and Caribbean countries, Chinese President Xi Jinping said earlier today in Beijing, when meeting with Chile's President Gabriel Boric, reports Reuters.
Boric’s visit to China is significant, and demonstrates a long-term strategic commitment between the two countries beyond changing politics, write Francisco Urdinez and María Montt in Americas Quarterly.
Mexico will provide aid to Cuba, including providing it with oil, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said yesterday. (Reuters)
Mexico
“The Sinaloa cartel, the leading exporter of fentanyl to the U.S., is prohibiting the production and trafficking of the illegal opioid in its territory after coming under increasing pressure from U.S. law enforcement, cartel members say,” according to the Wall Street Journal.
Argentina
Buenos Aires’ sprawling metropolitan area is critical to understanding the current paradigm of Argentine politics and its potential demise, according to journalist Carlos Pagni’s best-selling book, El nudo: por qué el conurbano bonaerense modela la política argentina, which delves deep into the region’s history and its political relevance, I write in a review for Americas Quarterly.
Argentines frustrated and overwhelmed by years of economic woes are pinning their hopes on firebrand liberatrian Javier Milei in Sunday’s presidential election, reports the Associated Press.
Milei has promised to shut down the country’s main science agency, the National Scientific and Technical Research Council (CONICET), which provides funding for about 12,000 researchers at 300 institutions across Argentina. Scientists are on edge, and the move could push brain drain in the country, reports Nature.
Brazil
Former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro instigated “a wilful and premeditated coup attempt” that sought to plunge Latin America’s largest democracy into political mayhem and perhaps even civil war, according to a congressional inquiry investigating the 8 January riots. (Guardian)
“The Amazon rainforest, where a fifth of the world’s freshwater flows, is reeling from a powerful drought that shows no sign of abating,” reports the New York Times. “Likely made worse by global warming and deforestation, the drought has fueled large wildfires that have made the air hazardous for millions of people, including Indigenous communities, while also drying out major rivers at a record pace.”
The water level at a major river port in Brazil’s Amazon rainforest has hit its lowest point in at least 121 years, reports Reuters.
Ecuador
Conventional wisdom is Ecuadorean president-elect Daniel Noboa will not have a stellar time in office (though it will be short). Latin America Risk Report explores some factors that could make him successful. (See yesterday’s post.)