U.S. negotiating oil for deportations deal with Maduro
May 22, 2025
The U.S. “Trump administration is quietly negotiating a high-stakes deal with the Nicolás Maduro regime to allow Chevron to continue exporting Venezuelan oil to the U.S. in exchange for Caracas accepting the return of thousands of Venezuelan migrants likely to lose their legal status in the coming weeks,” according to the Miami Herald.
It is unclear how close the two sides are to finalizing a deal, but the Miami Herald says sources agree that “President Donald Trump’s special envoy, Richard Grenell, has been leading behind-the-scenes discussions with key figures in the Maduro government,” reports the Miami Herald.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a social media post that a Venezuela oil-export license will expire next week. The statement contradicts statements by Grenell, who negotiated the release of a U.S. citizen detained by Venezuela’s government, and said yesterdaythat the U.S. would be extending Chevron’s waiver by 60 days, reports Bloomberg. (See yesterday’s post.)
Regional Relations
Democratic nations Brazil, India, and South Africa, should resurrect a dormant diplomatic space, the IBSA Dialogue Forum, to increase their leverage in BRICS, and strengthen their multilateral approach in the bloc which is teetering on the edge of becoming a Chinese-led anti-West group, argues Oliver Stuenkel in Foreign Policy. (Via Latin America Risk Report.)
The U.S. Trump administration’s “policy of ignoring human rights undermines its ability to lead morally and simultaneously damages its fundamental long-term strategic advantages. A region that faces repression alongside corruption and institutional decay becomes inherently unstable,” argues former U.S. ambassador to the OAS Frank O. Mora in Americas Quarterly.
Trump’s efforts to obtain concessions from Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino are “weakening an ally and rolling the dice on what comes next,” argues Will Freeman in the New York Times. “A politically, economically and socially unstable Panama would be worrying for the United States. If it puts the canal at risk, it could lead to disaster.”
Panama
A top union leader involved in protests against Mulino scaled the fence of the Bolivian embassy to seek asylum yesterday, authorities said, following the arrest of a colleague, reports AFP.
Panama’s new canal dam plan puts thousands of villagers at risk, prompting protests over mass displacement, reports Al Jazeera.
Deportations
“The United States should offer to bring back and hear the asylum claims of approximately 200 third-country nationals, including children, who were wrongfully expelled to Costa Rica in February,” Human Rights Watch said in a new report. “Costa Rica should also refuse future transfers of third-country nationals expelled from the US.”
El Salvador
The CECOT prison in El Salvador has become a political human zoo, argues Carolina Miranda in the Washington Post. “The grotesque images that have emerged from CECOT, like the human zoos that preceded it, are about presenting a barely contained savagery, reinforcing the idea that some people don’t qualify as fully human.”
Brazil
A New York Times investigation found that Russia has, for years, “used Brazil as a launchpad for its most elite intelligence officers, known as illegals. In an audacious and far-reaching operation, the spies shed their Russian pasts … The goal was not to spy on Brazil, but to become Brazilian. Once cloaked in credible back stories, they would set off for the United States, Europe or the Middle East and begin working in earnest. The Russians essentially turned Brazil into an assembly line for deep-cover operatives”
Investigators unraveling the Kremlin spying operation “suspect that K.G.B. operatives, working undercover in Brazil during the last years of the Soviet Union, may have filed birth certificates in the names of fictitious newborns — hoping that a future generation of spies would someday claim them and continue the fight against the West,” reports the New York Times. “If true, it would represent an extraordinary level of foresight and mission commitment by intelligence officers during a time of great upheaval and unpredictability in the world.”
As the demand for supercomputer facilities rises, fuelled by the AI boom, Brazil is attracting more and more tech companies, reports the Guardian. “Datacentres use vast amounts of energy and water to cool their supercomputers. Nevertheless, public authorities are greenlighting their construction in cities that have persistently suffered from drought.”
Mexico
The two Mexico City officials killed on Tuesday were assassinated in a carefully planned and professionally executed attack, using a clean weapon and three stolen vehicles with fake license plates to cover their tracks, reports El País.
Argentina
At least 82 people were injured, and at least four were arrested yesterday, in a the latest police crackdown against weekly pensioner protest outside of Argentina’s national Congress. One of the people arrested was a photojournalist,present at the protest in order to document how security forces implement Security Minister Bullrich’s questioned protocol for the Argentine chapter of Amnesty International, reports the Buenos Aires Herald.
“Keep an eye on these protests. They signal real problems for Milei going into the mid-terms,” according to James Bosworth. (Latin America Risk Report)
Yesterday, Argentina’s President Javier Milei has issued a new presidential decree with further prevention measures to stop people in the country from striking, reports the Buenos Aires Herald.
Argentina’s government will transform the Human Rights Secretariat into a sub-secretariat, cutting 40% of the organization’s structure and 30% of its staff to reduce public spending, reports EFE.
The Milei administration is angling for a much-needed cash infusion by creating a “new regime” to loosen large swathes of reporting requirements and restrictions on common transactions, aimed at getting people to spend undeclared cash savings, reports the Buenos Aires Herald.
Among other things, Milei’s austerity measures have causes a shortage in license plates, reports Bloomberg.
Colombia
The United Nations human rights office in Colombia warned that five Indigenous groups in a storied mountain range face “physical and cultural” extinction, a critical threat that stems from armed groups fighting over their territory and insufficient state protection, reports the Associated Press.
"It hasn't been easy to govern in a country that has a racial State with a government that also practices racism and patriarchy," Colombian Vice President Francia Márquez said in a conference. She said she had come to Gustavo Petro's government "with many hopes," but has faced obstacles and hurdles, including a lack of financing for her governmental agenda, reports Silla Vacía.
How ecotourism helped a small Colombian town recover from war - Guardian
Peru
The case of a forced sterilization carried out in Peru in the 1990s will be heard by the Inter-American Court of Human Rights, 28 years after the procedure – one of many thousands – resulted in a woman’s death, reports the Guardian.
Culture Corner
“A new museum dedicated to the artist Frida Kahlo’s life and work, Museo Casa Kahlo, will open this fall in Coyoacán, Mexico City,” reports the New York Times.