Sheinbaum keeps her cool
March 5, 2025
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said her country would respond to U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war with retaliatory tariffs. While Canada and China responded immediately with counter measures, Mexico will announced specific policies and targeted products on Sunday, “a delay that suggests Mexico hopes to de-escalate,” reports the Associated Press. Sheinbaum said the government is “going to wait” because she had planned to speak to Trump this week.
Yesterday U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick said in a video posted to X that he was on the phone “all day” with Mexican and Canadian authorities. Lutnick said it appeared the government was going to “work something out” with the trade partners, a deal that could be announced today. (Associated Press)
Lutnick said a partial resolution with Canada and Mexico would be possible, adding that they needed to do more on the fentanyl front. "I think there'll be some movement. It will not eliminate the tariffs ... but it might modify the tariffs somewhat," he said. (Reuters)
But “few analysts or politicians elsewhere buy the White House’s complaints about illicit drug and human trafficking across its borders as legitimate grounds for the punitive tariffs,” notes Ishaan Tharoor in the Washington Post.
Indeed, Sheinbaum has spent the past six weeks demonstrating what full cooperation with U.S. demands looks like, “essentially everything Donald Trump demanded and more,” writes James Bosworth at Latin America Risk Report.
She sent thousands of troops to Mexico’s border with the U.S., and carried out a major crackdown on drug cartels. She extradited 29 alleged gang leaders to the U.S. “Sheinbaum bent further than anyone had expected to show the Trump administration that her government was serious about meeting U.S. demands,” reports the New York Times.
Mexican officials told the New York Times “that they had reached a limit on what they were able to offer in an effort to avoid the tariffs, and that it was unclear what more Mexico could have done on security. They cautioned, though, that they still had very little understanding of what else Mr. Trump might want.”
In reality, the tariff measures show a logic that exceeds Trump’s demands on migration and fentanyl: government statements on tariffs indicate “a White House committed to a wholesale reorganization of the United States’ trading relationships,” writes Brian Winter in Americas Quarterly.
More Trade War
China's new tariffs on U.S. farm goods are poised to reshape global trade flows, reports Reuters. Meat and soy exports to China from Latin America, particularly Brazil and Argentina could surge.
“The risk for the United States is that other countries are learning that Trump doesn’t respond to concessions; he breaks his end of the deal and demands more. It’s how he did business for decades,” writes Bosworth. “However, unlike the business world, where Trump could just move on to burning a new business partner, international relations really is a series of repeated games with the same actors. Trump can’t burn Mexico and move on. Mexico remains the US’s neighbor.” (Latin America Risk Report)
Chinese company sells Panama ports after Trump’s pressure
Yesterday a Hong Kong-based conglomerate announced the sale of its controlling stake in a subsidiary that operates ports near the Panama Canal to a consortium including BlackRock Inc.
CK Hutchinson’s move effectively puts ports on either end of the Panama Canal under U.S. company control, in the wake of U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to take over the Panama Canal to thwart alleged Chinese influence in the management of the waterway, critical for U.S. shipping. (Associated Press)
“The deal – one month after US secretary of state Marco Rubio’s visit to Panama City – represents a swift and significant victory for the US president’s aggressive negotiations towards Panama,” according to the Guardian.
While CK Hutchinson and Panama’s government said the move was unrelated to Trump’s threats, the Hong Kong-based company has been under growing pressure as Panama sought to placate the U.S. government. Panama audited the company’s operations at the canal and the country’s comptroller general arguing that the concession to operate the ports is not fair. Panama’s attorney general recently called the contract unconstitutional, reports the Washington Post.
The deal will give the BlackRock consortium control over 43 ports in 23 countries, including the ports of Balboa and Cristobal, located at either end of the Panama Canal. Other ports are in Mexico, the Netherlands, Egypt, Australia, Pakistan and elsewhere.
“The deal is also an indication of the spoils available to American companies as the Trump administration pursues its America First foreign policy. And for some historians, it brings up memories of the outsize power that Wall Street banks have had in Latin America,” reports the New York Times.
Regional Relations
Uruguay’s new Orsi administration will no longer recognize Venezuelan opposition leader Edmundo González Urrutia as winner of last year’s presidential elections, but Foreign Minister Mario Lubetkin emphasized that Montevideo will not recognize Nicolás Maduro either. (MercoPress)
The next OAS leader will be chosen by secret ballot next week — “so far, two main candidacies have emerged that reflect key divisions within the institution and the region more broadly—divisions that have weakened the OAS to the point that its survival is far from guaranteed. More than a leadership contest, the March election will be a defining moment for the institution’s future,” writes Rubén M. Perina in Americas Quarterly.
“Uruguay, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, and Colombia have endorsed Suriname's Foreign Minister, Albert Ramdin, as their candidate for OAS Secretary General, reports MercoPress.
Colombia
Colombian President Gustavo Petro announced a new voluntary eradication strategy that would pay coca producers in the violence-riven Catatumbo region to plant coffee or cacao instead. (El País)
“The Wayuu, the largest Indigenous group in Colombia, are facing the dual threats of climate change-driven droughts and floods. Scientists warn that more severe, prolonged drought periods punctuated by flashes of torrential rain are only getting more common as the world warms. Aside from damaging people’s homes, they are also draining water sources, destroying crops, and increasing health risks from waterborne diseases. Many Wayuu families are forced to migrate in search of essential resources, putting even more pressure on already overcrowded urban areas,” reports the Associated Press.
Mexico
Disappearance of eight young people and the silence of three states highlights opacity of crime in Mexico, according to El País.
Migration
A new U.S. Trump administration policy effectively paused all pending immigration applications filed by migrants already living in the United States. It adds to changes by the new government that directly impact migrants who have received legal entry and stay in the United States from categorical parole programs established under the Biden administration, explains the Aula Blog.
El Salvador
The first construction works on El Salvador’s Pacific Airport, a signature infrastructure of President Nayib Bukele, have displaced 225 families from the communities of Condadillo and Flor de Mangle, in the municipality of Conchagua, La Unión, reports El Faro.
Guatemala
Virginia Laparra, a Guatemalan anti-corruption prosecutor forced into exile after being pursued by the country’s conservative elite, told the Guardian that leaving the country was the only way to save her life but was only “a little bit less than death”.
Honduras
“Cultivation of coca for cocaine production continued to spread to new municipalities in Honduras in 2024, suggesting that what may have started as an experiment is now an established business,” reports InSight Crime.
Argentina
Argentine President Javier Milei is betting on a “mano dura” discourse as he attempts to escape the $Libra cryptocurrency scandal. Yesterday he proposed lowering the age of criminal responsibility to 10. (El País)
Peru
After the Peruvian Attorney General’s office ordered the search of the home of Interior Minister Juan José Santiváñez, who is under investigation for abuse of power, President Dina Boluarte accused what she called “the bad press” of collaborating with the Attorney General’s office to carry out a coup against her government. The Committee to Protect Journalists called on Boluarte to retract her accusations that news outlets are trying to destabilize her government, and to show greater tolerance of criticism in the media.
Carnival
An ode to Rio de Janeiro’s Carnival celebrations - Associated Press
Trinidad and Tobago’s steel band competition, held this year amid escalating violence, celebrates an instrument born out of colonial resistance, reports the Guardian.