Repression in Caracas and Oil for U.S.
Jan. 7, 2026
Venezuela’s government has deployed armed militias to patrol streets, operate checkpoints and check people’s phones in a crackdown to consolidate interim president Delcy Rodríguez’s authority after the U.S. attacked Caracas and extracted President Nicolás Maduro, reports the Guardian.
A 90-day emergency order from the Venezuelan government appears to order the police to “immediately search and capture” anyone who supports “the armed attack by the United States,” among other directives that would further crack down on civil liberties in a country already under authoritarian rule, reports the New York Times.
Paramilitary groups known as colectivos criss-crossed the capital with motorbikes and assault rifles yesterday in a show of force to stifle any dissent or perception of a power vacuum. They have set up checkpoints around the capital to interrogate people and have been searching their phones for anything that could be interpreted as support for the U.S. attacks. At least two people have been arrested for celebrating Maduro’s capture. (New York Times, Washington Post)
At least 14 journalists and media workers were detained Monday — including 11 working for international outlets, according to the National Press Workers Union. Most, the union said, were held for several hours and later released, but several reported that military counterintelligence officers searched their phones, according to the Washington Post.
Venezuela’s interim president Delcy Rodríguez faces an existential balancing act: cooperating with the Trump administration while staying loyal to her Chavista base, writes José Enrique Arrioja in Americas Quarterly.
Yesterday Rodríguez declared seven days of mourning in honor of members of the country’s military who died in the US military operation. (Guardian)
“Political scientists say the outcomes of political crises like these depend on whether a government’s coalition can remain united,” writes Amanda Taub in the New York Times. “If leaders can convince enough crucial elites that loyalty is still the best way to promote their material interests and protect them from harm, then their coalitions can often hold, even in the face of coups, popular uprisings or foreign military incursions.”
The Trump administration has put Venezuela’s hardline interior minister, Diosdado Cabello, on notice that he could be at the top of its target list unless he helps Rodríguez meet U.S. demands and keep order, reports Reuters.
“U.S. officials are especially concerned that Cabello, given his record of repression and history of rivalry with Rodriguez, could play the spoiler and are seeking to force his cooperation even as they look for ways to eventually push him out of power and into exile,” according to Reuters.
The United States is also pressuring the interim Venezuelan government to expel official advisers from China, Russia, Cuba and Iran, reports the New York Times.
Drill, Baby, Drill
U.S. President Donald Trump said Venezuela will be “turning over” 30 to 50 millioned barrels of sanctioned oil to the U.S. “This Oil will be sold at its Market Price, and that money will be controlled by me, as President of the United States of America, to ensure it is used to benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States!” Trump said in a social media post. (Guardian)
The transfer would be the start of Trump’s plan to exploit Venezuela’s vast oil reserves under threat of a naval blockade. Based on his claim and at current market prices, Venezuela would be relinquishing between $1.8 and $3 billion worth of oil. It is unclear if the country would receive anything in return for the transfer, reports the New York Times.
The agreement is a strong sign that the Venezuelan government is responding to Trump’s demand that they open up to U.S. oil companies or risk more military intervention, reports Reuters.
Venezuela has millions of barrels of oil loaded on tankers and in storage tanks that it has been unable to ship due to the blockade imposed by Trump, reports the Guardian.
Venezuela could lose the bulk of its oil export revenues this year if the U.S. blockade stays in place, according to internal government estimates, a scenario that would set off a humanitarian crisis, reports the New York Times.
Since the Jan. 3 attack on Venezuela, Trump has said U.S. oil companies will invest and lift the country out of a long-standing economic crisis. But leading US oil businesses such as Exxon and Chevron have not commented on the plan, notes the Guardian.
Industry experts are skeptical of Trump’s prediction that US big oil firms will rapidly invest tens of billions of dollars to fix Venezuelan infrastructure and ramp up production after Maduro’s ouster, saying companies will seek an “iron-clad guarantee” that the US federal government will fully reimburse them for the cost of rebuilding Venezuela’s oil market, reports the Guardian, separately.
But, because the country is capable of producing large amounts of what is known as extra heavy oil, even a modest revival of the Venezuelan industry has the potential to shake up the oil markets, reports the New York Times.
Maduro In Court
Venezuela’s deposed despot, Nicolás Maduro, declared himself a prisoner of war in a U.S. court on Monday, a status that the last Latin American leader seized by U.S. forces, Gen. Manuel Antonio Noriega, also claimed, reports the New York Times.
Maduro is being represented by Barry Pollack, a top-tier US trial lawyer who spent years representing Julian Assange, eventually securing the WikiLeaks founder’s release from prison in the UK in 2024, reports the Guardian.
Maduro and loyalist lawmakers back in Venezuela have been flashing the V for victory sign with their hands — part of a pre-organized plan and aimed to accompany the narrative that he is a kidnapped president, according to Venezuela’s Communication Minister. (Efecto Cocuyo)
More Donroe Doctrine
Opposition leader María Corina Machado plans to return to Venezuela as soon as possible, and praised Trump’s “historical actions,” though he dismissed her leadership relevance at this time. (Guardian)
She emphasized her support for Trump in an interview with Fox News yesterday: “I do want to say today, on behalf of the Venezuelan people, how grateful we are for his courageous mission,” Machado said, adding that she and the Venezuelan people want to “share” the Nobel Peace prize with Trump. (Washington Post)
Trump’s stance has disappointed MCM supporters, who hoped Maduro’s ouster would pave the way for her return, but nonetheless many argue this is an initial step towards transition, reports the Guardian, separately.
Senior U.S. officials, including Rubio, had persuaded Trump that Venezuela could be further destabilized if the United States tried to back the opposition. A classified C.I.A. intelligence analysis reflected that view, reports the New York Times.
Maduro’s ouster at the hands of U.S. troops has put European leaders in a bind as well, they have mostly opted to welcome the end of Maduro’s rule, while avoiding explicitly endorsing how it came about, according to the Guardian.
Latin American nations were more critical at an emergency meeting of the Organization of the American States, yesterday, where several countries, including Brazil, Mexico and Colombia, strongly condemned the U.S. military action in Venezuela. (New York Times)
Trump accused Maduro of imitating the U.S. president’s signature hip-swaying and stiff arm-waving. “Trump’s comments appeared designed to add to Maduro’s humiliation a day after his arraignment hearing at a federal court in Manhattan” and come after media reports that the deposed Venezuelan leader’s habit of dancing at rallies helped goad the U.S. into abducting him, reports the Guardian.
Dominica and Antigua and Barbuda said that they had agreed to start receiving foreign nationals seeking asylum in the United States — third-country refugees. The announcements came after the United States imposed travel restrictions and visa bans, which took effect on Jan. 1, on the two countries, notes the New York Times.
Cuba
With widespread power outages, medicine shortages and rising food prices, experts say Cuba’s economy has never been worse — and now its lifeline of Venezuelan oil is under threat. (New York Times)
Both Trump and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio “made clear over the weekend that the collapse of Cuba’s communist government was not only a likely side benefit of Maduro’s ouster but a goal,” reports the Washington Post.
“The Trump administration’s view for months has been that taking down Maduro is the best and easiest way to overthrow the Cuban government,” Fulton Armstrong, a former US national intelligence officer for Latin America, told the Financial Times. “But they have never explained how they’d get from the present to their imaginary future. The pieces of the puzzle to make that picture just aren’t on the table”.
Regional
“In 2025, environmental crimes spread into corners of the Amazon Basin that had so far largely escaped the rampant plunder of the forest and its inhabitants by criminal networks and regional elites over the past decade,” reports InSight Crime, looking at how “over the past decade, organized crime has played an increasingly central role in the climate crisis facing the Amazon, and addressing it must be a priority.”
Just beyond Argentina’s maritime frontier, hundreds of foreign vessels – known as the distant-water fishing fleet – are descending on Mile 201, a largely ungoverned strip of the high seas in the South Atlantic, where a Chinese-dominated flotilla big enough to be seen from space yearly pillages the rich marine life in the area, reports the Guardian.
Mexico
Trump’s rhetoric, including his suggestion over the weekend that Washington may have to “do something” about cartels that are “running Mexico,” is reviving fears in Mexico City that the United States may act unilaterally against Mexico in the wake of the intervention in Venezuela, reports Politico.
Behind the west’s huge appetite for avocados lies the dark reality of environmental destruction and Indigenous exploitation in Mexico, writes Claudia Ignacio Álvarez, an Indigenous Purépecha human rights defender in Michoacán. (Guardian)