Regional relations - news roundup
July 10, 2024
“If Washington is genuinely concerned about losing influence to Beijing in Latin America, why has it relegated so much of its relationship with the region to a military institution such as SouthCom?” ask Laura Tedesco and Rut Diamint in Americas Quarterly. The authors argue that the U.S. Southern Command is seeking to fill the gap of the U.S.’ lack of political and economic engagement with the region, placing undue and unnecessary emphasis on the U.S. military.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva traveled to Bolivia for the first time in his third administration to meet with his counterpart Luis Arce, reports MercoPress. The two leaders discussed security issues including human trafficking and migration, as well as for shared healthcare access. President Lula also rejected allegations that the recent coup in Bolivia was staged by Arce himself in order to gain electoral support, says El País.
For the first time in 28 years, the joint declaration issued by Mercosur members did not mention Argentina’s sovereignty claim over the Malvinas Islands, in a notable rebuke against President Milei’s decision to not attend the bloc summit in Paraguay. (Buenos Aires Herald)
Latin American markets could be affected by a Donald Trump win in November, assesses Reuters. Mexico’s deep economic relationship with the U.S. and the issue of U.S. sanctions on Venezuela are both areas that could be impacted. Trump’s personal relationship with El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele and Argentina’s Javier Milei could also play a role in U.S. policy towards the region.
In Americas Quarterly, Eduardo Levy Yeyati argues in favor of artificial intelligence (AI) adoption in Latin America, believing it could “equalize wages downward while further reducing labor’s share of income.” However, he notes that the region is not currently prepared for widespread AI adoption, highlighting “rigid and outdated education systems, below-average math and reading scores, scarce and unequal digital connectivity, and limited vocational training and reskilling programs due to widespread precarity and informality.”
Also in Americas Quarterly, Lucia Dammert highlights the increasing entanglement between organized crime and politics in the region, noting that corruption, lack of transparency, and fragile institutions are key characteristics for criminal organizations to continue growing.
Migration
More than nine hundred thousand migrants, of the total ~2.5 million registered by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) in 2023, came from just six countries in Latin America. “Push factors—including organized crime-fueled violence and extortion and a lack of economic opportunities—combined with the pull of a strong U.S. labor market, make it unlikely migration flows will decrease substantially in the near future,” write Will Freeman, Steven Holmes, and Sabine Baumgartner for Council on Foreign Relations.
A New York Times article chronicles the journey, fraught with economic hardships and danger, of one family as they traveled from Venezuela to New York City over the course of a year.
Venezuela
The New York Times reports on the situation of Venezuelan citizens who have fled their country, and are now encountering difficulties registering to vote in Venezuela’s upcoming elections. “The government’s tactics are tantamount to sweeping electoral fraud, election experts say.”
AP News offers an overview on the logistics of Venezuela’s upcoming elections.
Mexico
Over 20 former heads of state from Latin America have rejected outgoing Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s proposed judicial reform, reports Animal Político. AMLO’s successor, Claudia Sheinbaum, has indicated that she would continue to push for the reform once she takes office.
Intentional homicides have increased 2 percent in the first semester in Mexico when compared to the same period last year, according to La Jornada. It is the first time in six years that this figure has increased.
Argentina
On Tuesday, Argentina’s independence day, Milei signed a long-delayed 10-point pact with provincial governors in an effort to rally support for his economic plans, says Reuters.
Argentina’s independence day, celebrated July 9, saw both President Javier Milei and Vice President Victoria Villarruel riding through the City of Buenos Aires on an Army tank, reports MercoPress.
Cointelegraph reports a surge in crypto adoption in Argentina amid a 276% inflation rate. Interestingly, analysts note that Argentines tend to purchase stablecoins like USDT and just hold them in their accounts, rather than spending them.
Regional
Will Freeman analyzes the differences in democratic capabilities at the national and subnational levels across Latin America. Organized crime and corruption, he argues, play a significant role in towns, cities, or states in otherwise democratic countries. (Council on Foreign Relations)
Honduras
The Guardian describes the plight of indigenous communities in Honduras, as they fight against deforestation and colonization in their territories. Bonifacio Graham believes that if the government does not take any action, “We are going to be left with nothing, not even water to drink.”