Latin America has been on tenterhooks with the U.S. elections — and now predictions are flying about what a new Trump presidency means for the region.
“Overall I do think Latin America will be more front and center in a Trump presidency than many people expect. It’s key to the big issues dear to Trump’s heart, including immigration, drugs and a broad front against socialist threats, both perceived and real. Some in the region will like the increased attention; some others won’t,” writes Brian Winter in Americas Quarterly.
International Relations expert Juan Gabriel Tokatlian also predicts Trumpian attention towards Latin America, organized under a “Monroe Doctrine” approach — with mass deportations as a symbolic disciplining tool. (La Nación)
While rightwing populist leaders like Javier Milei and Nayib Bukele have celebrated Trump’s victory, many analysts are sanguine about narrative alignment spilling over into real diplomatic benefits. (Americas Quarterly, La Nación, Latin America Risk Report)
Leftist Latin American presidents, in turn, “tested cautious public messaging in the wake of the U.S. vote.,” writes Catherine Osborn in Foreign Policy.
Indeed relations between the U.S. and the country’s leftist led countries could become more turbulent, Wilson Center’s Benjamin Gedan told the Buenos Aires Herald: “President Biden sought common ground and largely ignored provocations from Gustavo Petro, Lula, and AMLO. The next U.S. president might be less magnanimous.”
Mexico has long been Donald Trump’s rhetorical piñata — though his bark was far worst than his bite during his first presidency, many of the more extreme campaign promises regarding closing the border, tariffs and mass deportations would have an enormous impact on Mexico. (New York Times) There is “even the far-fetched but alarming suggestion of US military strikes on organised crime groups in Mexican territory,” reports the Guardian. Ioan Grillo analyzes at CrashOut. (See yesterday’s post on Sheinbaum and Trump.)
While Trump’s regional focus will be Mexico, his mandate could imply diplomatic shifts with the rest of Latin America. Given the Trump administration’s failure with Venezuela, Michael Shifter hypothesizes the incoming president might do a 180 and accommodate Nicolás Maduro in exchange for migration cooperation. (BBC)
Maduro extended an olive branch to the U.S. president-elect, yesterday: “In his first government … Trump wasn’t good to us [but] this is a new start,” Maduro proclaimed during a live TV broadcast. “Your slogan is ‘Make America great again’. And, paraphrasing your slogan, I’d say that our slogan is to make the united Venezuela, Latin America and the Caribbean great,” Maduro said, calling for a new era of “win-win” relations. (Guardian)
Christopher Sabatini, a Chatham House Latin America expert, said he saw “a very strong tendency” for Trump to take a dramatically different approach towards Venezuela, in no small measure due to his deportation goals. (Guardian)
“Maduro appears to be positioning himself for negotiations with the Trump administration. He understands Trump is transactional and thinks there is a deal to be made that likely involves oil sales and accepted deportations in exchange for better relations,” writes James Bosworth in Latin America Risk Report, noting the potential implications for Brazil and Colombia’s presidents:
“If they are rejecting Maduro the day Trump cuts a deal in Caracas, it is a potential diplomatic disaster for them. They would arguably be on the right side of history, but that's less important for immediate regional relations. This means Lula and Petro will want to pivot before Trump, but they also don't want to pivot too early to reward Maduro. It's a tough challenge for both presidents.”
Cuba
Cuba suffered another nationwide blackout, yesterday, as Hurricane Rafael made landfall on the island’s south-west coast as a category 3 hurricane, reports the Guardian.
Regional
“Two years of severe drought in the Amazon rainforest have left nearly half a million children facing shortages of water and food or limited access to school, according to a UN report.” (Guardian)
Many observers were disappointed in the (lack of) outcomes from the COP16 Summit that ended last week. The gathering “ended in disarray,” according to The Guardian, reporting that amid delayed and stalling talks, “governments failed to reach a consensus on key issues such as nature funding and how this decade’s targets would be monitored.” (See today’s Just Caribbean Updates)
Colombia
Leading Colombian conservationists share their experiences working in the most dangerous country to fight for wildlife - Guardian
Panama
Panama’s drought has severely impacted it’s economy by limiting canal transit — and has pushed “authorities to adopt strategies to combat the risk of events triggered by the climate crisis: undertaking works to ensure the canal’s continued operation and, simultaneously, investing in sustainable development and adaptation.” - Guardian
Mexico
A month into Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s term “a string of bloody confrontations suggests the government is quietly abandoning the “no bullets” part of that strategy and is much more willing to use the full force of the military and the militarized National Guard,” reports the Associated Press.
Mexico’s shift to popularly elected federal judges has sparked “concerns over the judiciary’s vulnerability to organized crime,” reports InSight Crime.
Bolivia
“The MAS crisis and Morales’ waning popularity open up the possibility of a political shift that could bolster Bolivia’s beleaguered democracy, initiate judicial reforms, and address urgent environmental issues,” argues Raul Peñaranda U. in Americas Quarterly.
Guyana
“Hundreds of thousands of Guyana citizens living at home and abroad will receive a payout of around £370 each after the country announced it was distributing its “mind-boggling” oil wealth,” reports the Guardian.