Political fallout in Bolivia

June 28, 2024

The events of Wednesday’s brief mutiny against Bolivian President Luis Arce remain fairly opaque, reports the Guardian. At least 17 people have been arrested in relation to the attempted coup, which lasted only three hours. (See yesterday’s post.)

About 200 military officers took part in the attempted coup, Bolivia’s ambassador to the Organization of American States said yesterday. (New York Times)

Senior Cabinet member Eduardo del Castillo one civilian among the arrested, identified as Aníbal Aguilar Gómez, was a key “ideologue” of the thwarted coup. He said the alleged conspirators began plotting in May. (Associated Press)

Yesterday some allies of former President Evo Morales, once Arce’s mentor and now political enemy, used social media to promote conspiracy theories about Arce being responsible for the supposedly bogus military rebellion, reports the Guardian.

Those claims have been strongly denied by Arce and his government. “I am not a politician who is going to win popularity through the blood of the people,” he said yesterday. (Associated Press)

The attempted coup and the confusing narrative surrounding the events “reflect Bolivia’s current times: a weak government that does not solve the problems, a president who is self-absorbed, incapable of giving certainty to the citizens, ruling with a minority in the legislature,” Raúl Peñaranda U. told Americas Quarterly.

Regional

• Femicides in Latin America remain stuck at a stubbornly high plateau, despite a slate of anti-femicide laws in the region and falling homicide rates. “The figures make it clear that, despite their efforts, decision-makers and society as a whole need to be more proactive to tackle this pressing problem,” write Laura Glanc, Tatiana Rein Venegas, and Alejandra Otamendi in Americas Quarterly.

Haiti

• The international security mission to Haiti could turn into yet another longer-term intervention, writes Jake Johnston at CEPR. There is little public information about the mission and “the structure of the force and lack of UN oversight have raised questions about who is ultimately in control. Haitian, US, and Kenyan officials have also offered seemingly contradictory remarks about how the MSS will operate on the ground, adding to the confusion.”

Migration

• The U.S. Biden administration plans to protect about 300,000 Haitians from deportation by granting them Temporary Protected Status, which would allow them to work in the country, reports the New York Times.

• The International Organization for Migration called for countries in the hemisphere to expand legal migration routes for workers, at a high-level hemispheric meeting on labor mobility in Mexico. (Infobae)

Mexico

• Mexican president-elect Claudia Sheinbaum appointed a close ally to lead the Energy Ministry, reports Bloomberg.

Regional Relations

• U.S. automakers are concerned that low priced Chinese electric vehicles entering the market from Mexico pose an existencial threat, reports the Associated Press. (via Latin America Risk Report)

Venezuela

• Despite ongoing repression, there’s a sense among many Venezuelan opposition activists that there’s a chance they could win the July 28 election. “They’re not the only ones who think so: Last week, investment bank Barclays sent a note to clients saying there was a “significant possibility” of a political transition in the country,” reports the Latin America Brief.

Honduras

• Former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández was sentenced by a U.S. judge to 45 years in a federal prison and an $8 million fine for running a “narco-state” that helped traffic cocaine to the U.S. JOH was a close-ally of the United States while in office, notes the Washington Post.

• In his testimony, Hernández acknowledged that drug money was paid to virtually all political parties in Honduras, but he denied accepting bribes himself. (Guardian)