Pink tide and anti-incumbents
(June 23, 2022)
Gustavo Petro’s win in Colombia’s presidential elections on Sunday has revived debate over regional political trends: some analysts see a leftward swing that has been dubbed Pink Tide 2.0 (or light-pink tide, a nod to leaders’ more moderate stances), while others say voters are driven by anti-incumbent sentiment more than leftist ideals.
The former emphasize that leaders of most of the region’s largest countries could now be considered leftist, ranging from Mexico through Peru, Chile and Argentina, along with Bolivia and Honduras. The latter point to right-wing opposition wins in Uruguay and Ecuador to bolster the anti-incumbent argument.
Many analysts point to a mix of the two, which feed into each other. Brazilian international relations expert Oliver Stuenkel has pointed out that Colombia’s are the fourteenth straight elections in Latin America where an opposition party has taken the presidency since 2018. (Brazil Report) All eyes are on Brazil, which could confirm both narratives if former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins the presidency in October.
Anti-incumbent sentiment opens space for outsider political candidates, at a time when the region’s citizens are less enamored of democracy than they have been in decades. The trend speaks to the failures of traditional political parties to respond to citizen concerns, and could lead to significant democratic backsliding, as has been the case in El Salvador. (I wrote about this in El Diplo last week.)
There is broad agreement that the current generation of leftist leaders is more heterogenous than the original Pink Tide governments of the early 2000s, which means they are unlikely to act as a uniform regional bloc. That being said, the recent Summit of the Americas guest-list kerfuffle points to pushback against U.S. unilateral leadership, and a willingness to push back in search of a more nuanced regional foreign policy.
Petro has said he envisions a progressive alliance with Chile and Brazil. Such a coalition could be a powerful force in the hemisphere — and could leave the United States on the sidelines, reports the Washington Post.
A difficult economic context means less money for social spending throughout the region, but limits policy options for government’s of all political stripes, as evinced by Ecuador’s ongoing protests against inflation (see yesterday’s post) and Argentina’s increasingly restless social movements.
Elections next year in Argentina could oust the center-left Fernández administration, while Peru’s floundering Castillo government hasn’t been particularly leftist in practice. "If elections there were happening today, many of these 'pink' governments would disappear," Nicolas Saldias, an analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit told Reuters."This is not a strong base of support."
News Briefs
Colombia
Gustavo Petro's victory is Colombia's opportunity to finally enter the era of democratic alternation of power, and to resume the aborted peace process agenda, writes Pedro Abramovay in O Globo. “Francia Márquez's victory is more than that. It allows Colombia to face its racist and patriarchal structures and points to a new political and economic agenda in which inclusion is based on respect for nature.”
Petro’s campaign promise to pivot from war on drugs policies is an opportunity for the country to rethink it’s relationship with coca plants, writes Catalina Gil in El País.
The ELN has expressed its willingness to return to peace talks with Colombia’s government, following Petro’s victory, but said it would only do so if the the new government shows progress on a number of key issues, including crop substitution, political participation, transition toward cleaner energies and the economy. (InSight Crime)
Ecuador
Ecuador’s government rejected protesters’ conditions for dialogue yesterday, amid ongoing demonstrations that have paralyzed parts of the country for the past ten days, reports Reuters. (See yesterday’s post.)
Protesters, led by the country’s powerful Indigenous confederation, the CONAIE, called for the government to demilitarize its response to the demonstrations in order to sit down to talks, but yesterday Ecuador’s minister of government said lifting the state of emergency would leave “the capital defenseless.” (Reuters)
Brazil
Brazil's judicial watchdog agency says it is investigating a judge who stopped an 11-year-old rape victim from getting an abortion — which advocates say is permitted under Brazilian law at any stage in pregnancy for rape cases. (Associated Press)
Brazilian Vice President Hamilton Mourão said he believes British journalist Dom Phillips was “collateral damage” in an attack on his traveling partner, the Indigenous activist Bruno Pereira. He also said the attack must have been alcohol related, but did not explain whether his conclusions were based on findings from the police inquiry, reports the Guardian.
Far from an isolated incident, the killings occurred in a context of “chronic Amazonian anomie” that “hands small-time outlaws a pass to poach, pillage and trespass on protected land and peddle their ill-gotten bounty,” writes Mac Margolis in the Washington Post. “Endemic misery across the Amazon only encourages transgression.”
His comments angered Indigenous communities where Pereira had worked for years. In a statement, the Univaja group of Indigenous people said Mourão’s comments disregard “the fact that the police investigation points to the existence of a criminal group organized to plunder the natural resources of the Vale do Javari Indigenous land.” (Guardian)
Norway is ready to resume payments to Brazil to prevent deforestation in the Amazon if there is a change of government in October’s elections, reports Reuters.
Haiti
Conditions at Haiti’s garment factories are akin to prison camps, with non-existent labour rights and where sexual abuse is rife, according to activists. About 60,000 Haitians work in the country’s 41 factories, producing clothes for more than 60 American companies. Female garment factory workers say that to get a job women are expected to have sex with a male manager, reports the Guardian.
Paraguay
A wave of contract killings in Paraguay has coincided with the rise of Brazilian Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) influence in the country, as the former prison gang culminates a decade-long hostile takeover of a lucrative narco-trafficking pipeline between Brazil and Paraguay, reports the Guardian.
Venezuela
A number of priests convicted of sexual abuse of children in Venezuela have served little or no time, and in many cases have returned to ministry. Critics see a pattern that they say suggests collusion between a corrupt judicial system and the Catholic Church to protect perpetrators rather than victims, reports the Washington Post.
Argentina
Eight people, including doctors, nurses and a psychologist, who took care of Argentine football superstar Diego Maradona will be tried for homicide, following an investigation into his death from cardiac arrest in 2020, reports Reuters.