Observers question Venezuela referendum turnout
Dec. 5, 2023
Venezuela’s government claimed voters gave it an overwhelming victory in a referendum on Sunday “to acquire blank-check powers to invade Guyana, saying it had obtained 10.55 million votes, or 97.8% of the total cast, in its favor,” reports the Miami Herald.
But most observers said polling stations were largely empty and say the official statistics are not credible, reports the Guardian. Guyanese intelligence suggests the actual turnout was fewer than 1.5 million people – less than a 10th of the population.
The “lackluster turnout” suggests Maduro’s government “is losing influence and is tone deaf to people’s needs,” according to the Associated Press.
Maduro described the vote as a success during a 50-minute speech Monday. The outcome, he said, was a "powerful, vital boost," to Venezuela's claim to a region which Guyana has administered for over a century and makes up more than two-thirds of its territory, reports AFP.
Most analysts believe Maduro’s saber-rattling is aimed at drumming up national sentiment and distracting from his political woes ahead of a presidential election next year. (New York Times)
“Most analysts agree that the Venezuelan government’s increasingly belligerent rhetoric toward Guyana should not be understood as a precursor to an actual conflict.” But a potential geopolitical crisis is a challenge for Brazil’s diplomatic strategy, writes Oliver Stuenkel in Americas Quarterly. (See yesterday’s briefs.)
Regional Relations
The US government charged a former diplomat with secretly serving as an agent of Cuba’s government for more than 40 years. Victor Manuel Rocha was arrested on Friday, following a long-running FBI counterintelligence investigation. The US ambassador to Bolivia from 2000 to 2002, Rocha also worked on the national security council from 1994 to 1995, reports the Guardian.
U.S. “Attorney General Merrick Garland called the Rocha case ‘one of the highest-reaching and longest-lasting infiltrations of the United States government by a foreign agent,’ adding that in those secretly recorded conversations, Rocha repeatedly referred to the United States as ‘the enemy.’” (Washington Post)
Yesterday, Rocha “wept as he sat handcuffed in Miami federal court on charges that he engaged in “clandestine activity” on Cuba’s behalf since at least 1981 — the year he joined the U.S. foreign service,” reports the Associated Press.
“Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva landed in Berlin on Sunday for the first Brazilian-German government consultations in eight years as Latin America and Europe's largest economies seek to revive ties,” reports Reuters.
Regional
Latin America has generally failed to identify with other parts of the Global South, but “recent developments in African regional development, from a free trade area to the rise of the African Union, show that it’s time for a paradigm shift,” argues Andrea Ordóñez in Americas Quarterly. “Latin America must consider the invaluable lessons Africa has to offer.”
Argentina
Argentine president-elect Javier Milei pledged to present reforms to Argentina’s tax and labor laws, political processes and potential privatizations in an economic “shock” package immediately after taking office on Dec. 10, reports Bloomberg.
Haiti
Gang attacks surged last month in the Port-au-Prince metropolitan area and beyond, with several groups launching assaults on cargo and civilians, reports CEPR.
Critter Corner
Biologists are working to reintroduce the axolotl, a treasured amphibian, to the wild outside of Mexico City. But in order to do so they must revive an ancient farming method, reports the New York Times.