Muerte Cruzada in Ecuador
May 18, 2023
Ecuadorian President Guillermo Lasso disbanded the country’s National Assembly yesterday, a drastic response to impeachment proceedings that threatened to oust him imminently. The National Assembly voted to start impeachment hearings this week, but all proceedings were permanently halted once Lasso dissolved the congress.
Lasso invoked a never-before-used constitutional clause that permits him to rule by decree until new elections are held in six months. But the move could plunge Ecuador into political turmoil.
The country’s top military leaders promised to back Lasso and maintain order. Military and police officers prevented entry to the National Assembly building yesterday, following Lasso’s morning announcement. (El Comercio)
Brigadier General Nelson Bolívar Proaño Rodríguez, head of the armed forces joint command, said in a video statement yesterday that the president’s decree “should be respected by all citizens.” If violence erupts, the armed forces and police “will act firmly,” he said. (Washington Post, Associated Press)
Several former lawmakers challenged Lasso’s decision before the Constitutional Court, arguing yesterday that there are no grounds for the dissolution of the Assembly. (El Comercio, Associated Press)
The leadership of Ecuador’s powerful Indigenous confederation had promised to protest if Lasso invoked the “muerte cruzada” clause. But yesterday afternoon, Conaie head Leonidas Iza called on member groups to maintain assemblies, without calling for protests. (Ecuavisa)
Lasso’s 11-page decree, which came into force immediately, states that his decision was taken as a result of “severe political crisis and domestic upheaval.” The decree forces Ecuador’s electoral authority to call elections next week, and hold the vote within 90 days. Those voted into power in the early elections would serve until the regularly-scheduled 2025 elections take place. (Reuters)
The move aroused concerns about lack of democratic checks and balances, but it could benefit Lasso politically by permitting the president to enact a policy agenda blocked by opposition lawmakers. Lasso is eligible to run for office again. His first act under his new powers yesterday was a tax cut for businesses and middle-class Ecuadoreans. (New York Times, El Comercio, Guardian)
The idea that the dissolution of Congress will bring stability to Ecuador is a dangerous fantasy: one that shows just how disconnected Lasso has become from his own society,” argues Will Freeman in Americas Quarterly.
Brazil
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s focus on foreign policy could undermine his domestic political agenda, reports Reuters. A poll last month by Quaest/Genial found that 59% of Brazilians want the Workers Party to focus on national issues, against 35% who back the president's Ukraine-Russia conflict resolution plan.
The International Monetary Fund said it "strongly supports" Brazil's proposed fiscal framework, while also commending the country's "ambitious agenda" to have a sustainable, inclusive, and green economy, reports Reuters.
Brazilian state oil company Petrobras passed a new fuel pricing policy that will sharply lower prices for users. Lula celebrated the decision, declaring it "a victory for the people." (Reuters)
Former President Jair Bolsonaro was questioned this week by Brazilian police in an investigation into allegations that Covid-19 vaccine cards were falsified. (Associated Press)
A new study in MisInformation Review on beliefs in electoral misinformation in the 2022 Brazilian election found “that susceptibility to electoral misinformation is affected by factors such as political ideology, trust in the electoral process and democratic institutions, and information consumption, with those who participate in political groups in messaging apps being more likely to believe in electoral misinformation.”
Argentina
Argentine Vice President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner reiterated that she does not plan on running for the presidency in October’s elections. The announcement on Tuesday leaves questions regarding will be the candidate for the ruling Frente de Todos coalition. She blamed the judiciary, saying judges would seek to disqualify her candidacy based on a corruption sentence. (Reuters)
The Supreme Court and Argentina’s government have clashed frequently in recent months, and seem set to continue colliding in the campaign months ahead, according to the Latin America Risk Report.
The Supreme Court’s decision to suddenly suspend two provincial elections earlier this month, over questions of eligibility of the Peronist candidates, “must be read purely in political terms, demonstrating that it won’t back down and has the intention to play hardball in the political arena,” argues Agustino Fontevecchia in the Buenos Aires Times. (Via Road to the Casa Rosada)
Libertarian candidate Javier Milei presented his official platform this week. His Libertad Avanza Party proposes dollarizing Argentina’s economy, shrinking government spending, gradual reduction of social programs, privatization of all state companies, charging for public health, rolling back abortion legalization, and making sexual education in schools non-mandatory. (Infobae)
Dollarization wouldn’t resolve Argentina’s economic woes, argues Bloomberg’s Juan Pablo Spinetto, who writes: ““Whoever is the country’s next leader will need not only to set the right policy, but also accumulate enough political capital to sustain it.” (Via Road to the Casa Rosada)
Migration
A landmark climate migrant bill in Colombia would grant legal recognition to people who are uprooted within the country due to the impacts of climate change — forced internal displacement. If passed, it would be the first such law in Latin America and the Caribbean, a region where up to 17 million people could become climate migrants by 2050, the World Bank estimates. (Reuters)
A major new wave of migration from Guatemala’s Q’eqchi’ territory is driven in large part by growing plantations of export crops like African palm, increasing land inequality and the conflicts it generates, reports the Guardian.
Regional
Climate change — extreme weather, rising temperatures, drought — and bad U.S. policies play a major role in the Latin American migration crisis, writes Kate Aronoff in the New Republic.
A Guyanese court’s recent ruling ordering ExxonMobil to provide an unlimited guarantee for potential damages related to its oil operations in the island’s waters could have wide ranging impact in the Caribbean and for environmental legal challenges farther abroad, reports the Guardian. (See last week’s Just Caribbean Updates)
Colombia
Colombian President Gustavo Petro caused confusion when he celebrated the finding of four children lost in the rainforest two weeks ago following a plane crash — news that remains unconfirmed according to military sources. (Guardian, La Silla Vacía)
Criticisms regarding the supposed costs of Colombian Vice President Francia Márquez’s tour of several African countries this week reflect a racist double standard, reports El País.
The controversy Márquez’s tour provoked, “reopened a debate on racism and the historical links between Colombia and Africa through the institution of slavery,” according to La Silla Vacía.
Her trip is not only aimed at “the renewal of Colombia's diplomatic relations with territories that share much of our history. This meeting aims to connect her roots with a past of emancipation, community leadership and pan-Africanism,” argues Sebastián Calderon, co-founder of Extituto de Política Abierta. (El País)
Chile
Chilean lawmakers passed a long-awaited mining tax reform that requires large copper and lithium producers to pay more taxes and royalties to the government, by a vote of 101 in favor to 24 against in the lower chamber of congress. (Reuters)
Critter Corner
Service was temporarily halted on one of Mexico City’s metro system lines this week after a chicken got loose on the tracks. The chicken eluded several attempts to capture it before one worker tossed his coat over the animal, reports the Associated Press.