Mexico heads to the polls Sunday
May 31, 2024
Mexico will hold historic elections on Sunday. Over 20,000 posts are in play, 100 million eligible voters, and the next president will almost certainly be the country’s first female executive — both the frontrunners are women. All of Congress and nine governorships are up for grabs, including Mexico City.
The likely winner is Claudia Sheinbaum, the candidate for Mexico’s ruling Morena party. She is polling about 20 points ahead of conservative candidate Xóchitl Gálvez, but pollsters emphasize that voter turnout on Sunday could significantly impact results. Experts disagree which side is more likely to turn out, reports Reuters.
Sheinbaum is the protégée of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who is leaving office with a high approval rating of 65%. AMLOs government has been characterized by record spending on social programs, including pension increases and direct subsidies that reach about a third of the population. ”Together with a doubling of the minimum wage, from 2018 to 2024, such measures have contributed to a reduction in moderate poverty rates of around 6 per cent,” reports the International Crisis Group.
His generous social policies have endeared him to Mexicans, despite his poor results on issues of corruption, impunity and violence. Critics are concerned about his efforts to reform government institutions, militarization of areas of government, and discursive attacks against members of the press and civil society. (Guardian)
Sheinbaum has consistently portrayed herself as a continuity candidate — but her profile and governance track record differs from AMLO’s. Analysts point to her technocratic, scientific background, and successes with security policies in Mexico City. (Guardian)
Gálvez represents a coalition of three parties — the conservative PAN, the former political giant PRI, and the leftist PRD. She is a self-made businesswoman from the tech sector, and her entry into the race last year unexpectedly galvanized the campaign. (Reuters)
Five states which concentrate 38% of the electorate are key for the presidential election: Estado de México (Edomex), Mexico City (CDMX), Jalisco, Veracruz and Puebla.
Security tops voters concerns: A total of more than 185,000 killings have been officially recorded since López Obrador took office – more than under any prior administration, notes International Crisis Group. (InSight Crime analyzes all three candidates’ security policies, which the publication found “ambiguous.”)
Security has been a significant issue during the campaign — as many as 36 candidates have been assassinated over the past year. Criminal organizations are vying for influence, particularly at the local levels of government. (See yesterday’s briefs.)
Morena controls two-thirds of the country’s 32 governorships — of the nine states in play, six are currently governed by Morena and allies, and three by opponents. (Americas Quarterly)
Though Morena’s victory is highly likely, Americas Quarterly points to a potential shift among younger voters towards the Movimiento Ciudadano, that could be relevant politically moving forward.
Whoever wins will face significant challenges: surging cartel violence, sluggish economic growth, sweeping corruption, a migration crisis and political polarization, according to Foreign Policy.
Though numerous articles in the international press have critiqued Mexico’s apparent autocratic slide under AMLO, these perspectives blow his failings out of proportion and fail to account for Mexico’s already flawed democracy, argues Ioan Grillo at UnHerd.
Haiti
Haiti’s transitional presidential council selected the new prime minister Gary Conille, former regional director of UNICEF and “a choice that will be sure to please the international community,” by consensus, but has faced criticism for its opaque handling of the selection process, writes Jake Johnston in CEPR’s Haiti Round-Up. There was little transparency in how the list of 60 applicants was reduced to five, “while rumors about efforts made by members of the economic elite to influence the vote swirled.”
Kenyan President William Ruto voiced confidence that a delayed multinational security mission led by his country will go ahead. (AFP)
Regional Relations
Ukrainian President Volodymyer Zelenskyy spoke admiringly of Argentine President Javier Milei’s commitment to “freedom,” and developing Argentina’s military defense industry, in an interview with Cenital.
Colombia
An innovative program in Bogotá focuses on supporting the city’s many unpaid caregivers, most of them women living in poverty, reports the Guardian.
Ecuador
The story behind Ecuador’s transformation from peaceful country into criminal battleground is related to changes in drug trafficking logistics in the region, in large part related to U.S. cocaine eradication policies in Colombia and the demobilization of the FARC, argues Phenomenal World.
Regional
“Aerial cocaine interdictions have fallen sharply in Central America in the last three years, suggesting that drug traffickers are shifting their modus operandi, potentially in response to increased attention on aerial routes,” reports InSight Crime.
Cuba
Oropouche fever, a rare mosquito-borne viral disease mostly found in the Amazon region, has been spotted for the first time in Cuba, according to health authorities. (Miami Herald)
Critter Corner
Colombia’s congress voted to ban bullfights by 2028. (Associated Press)