Mexico heads to judicial elections
May 30, 2025
Mexico holds its first judicial elections on Sunday. (See yesterday’s post and Tuesday’s.) For the first time citizens will elect nearly 880 federal judgeships, including the entire Supreme Court — part of a judicial reform passed last year in the final weeks of former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s mandate, on the wake of a historic, landslide election that gave his Morena party a super majority in Congress.
More than 7,700 candidates are running judgeships.
“The experiment is so ambitious, divisive and confusing that it is difficult to know how it will unfold: A single day of voting will enact the most far-reaching judicial overhaul ever by a large democracy,” according to the New York Times.
AMLO and current President Claudia Sheinbaum argue that by popularly electing judges, they can root out corruption in the judiciary and bring the branch closer to the people, reports the Associated Press.
“It is a world-first democratic experiment, but one that has prompted warnings of low turnout, a political power grab and infiltration by organised crime,” reports the Guardian.
But critics say the reform runs the risk of politicizing the judiciary, and opening the door for organized crime.
“The criminal justice system in Mexico has for many years failed to successfully prosecute members of organized crime groups and keep those individuals behind bars, and it is unlikely that the popular vote of judges will do anything to address the root causes of that issue,” according to InSight Crime.
While the leadup to Sunday’s elections has been less violent than last year’s presidential campaign — the bloodiest on record — “a climate of fear persists,” report CNN. “Across the country, at least four candidates have already abandoned their campaigns after receiving threats, per the international conflict research organization Crisis Group, and several judges have refused to campaign at all in areas controlled by cartels. Since 2012, at least 17 judges and six clerks have been killed in connection to their work, the group notes.”
F.B.I. memo on Tren de Aragua
An F.B.I. memo unsealed yesterday details the U.S. agency’s assessment that some Venezuelan government officials likely facilitate the migration of Tren de Aragua gang members from Venezuela to the United States to advance the objective of undermining public safety in the United States — an analysis other U.S. intelligence agencies disagree with, reports the New York Times.
The memo, presented by the Trump administration in a lawsuit challenging deportations under the Enemy Alien Act, paints a “stark portrait of a regime willing to export violence, organized crime and repression to maintain power and gain geopolitical leverage. It describes a coordinated strategy by the Nicolas Maduro government to release violent criminals, facilitate their migration abroad, and deploy them as unofficial enforcers—not only across Latin America but increasingly in U.S. cities,” reports the Miami Herald.
The F.B.I.’s assessment is based on seven sources, but other intelligence agencies are skeptical about the F.B.I.’s conclusions. According to the National Security Council, the sources, who face legal troubles, could have been motivated to lie in deflect responsibility, and it is unclear whether the detainees “could credibly have access to the information reported.” (New York Times)
Regional
Latin Americans increasingly support closer economic ties with China, according to LatAm Pulse, a monthly survey conducted by AtlasIntel for Bloomberg: “A more favorable view of China among Latin Americans is the latest fallout from Trump’s barrage of import taxes and strong-arm diplomacy. While leaders in nations from Mexico to Brazil have maneuvered to avoid the US president’s wrath, many of the regions’ citizens now believe Beijing is a better business partner than Washington.”
Regional Relations
On Wednesday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that the United States would restrict visas from foreign officials who are “responsible for censorship of protected expression in the United States.” Analysts believe Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes could be a target of this policy. (New York Times)
Faced with falling investment, slowing growth and the erratic foreign policy of Donald Trump, Mexico’s government has decided to support an early review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, reports Reuters.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said the Canadian government invited her to come to Alberta for next month's G7 leaders' summit but she hasn't yet decided whether she will go. (CBC)
El Salvador
El Hilo interviewed Carlos Dada, director of El Faro, after a month of escalating repression by El Salvador’s government — which arrested a leading human rights lawyer, threatened more journalists and cracked down on protesters.
USA Today reports on long-standing allegations that Bukele’s political rise is linked to support from street gangs. “USA TODAY has learned that a former president of El Salvador’s national assembly – who is also familiar with gangland negotiations – was seized by U.S. immigration officers in March and awaits deportation to his homeland, where he was convicted in absentia for illicit gang dealings.”
Brazil
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s disapproval rating rose in May to 54%, up four points from April, according to LatAm Pulse, a survey conducted by AtlasIntel for Bloomberg News. His approval fell slightly to about 45%, as the government struggles to manage a scandal at Brazil’s National Social Security Institute, according to Bloomberg.
Panama
A planned Panama Canal expansion faces opposition from rural communities whose homes would be submerged by a new reservoir that aims to prevent the impacts of severe droughts like the one in 2023, which forced a drastic reduction in ship traffic, reports AFP.
Bolivia
Twenty people were arrested and three officers were injured in Bolivia yesterday, after supporters of former president Evo Morales, who has been barred from running for office again, clashed with police, reports AFP.
Cuba
A dismal sugar harvest in Cuba could undermine the island’s resurgent rum industry, another setback in the midst of economic crisis, reports the Guardian.