Maduro's lonely inauguration
Jan. 13, 2025
Nicolás Maduro was sworn in on Friday, in a rushed ceremony boycotted by most of the region’s leaders — with the exception of the autocratic leaders of Nicaragua and Cuba. Maduro claimed in a speech that he was spearheading “a democratizing revolution” in Venezuela and cast himself as the fearless anti-imperialist leader of an “eminently democratic project.”
Absent were the euphoric crowds that historically accompanied Hugo Chávez, the international leaders, and the political opposition, notes, Boris Muñoz in El País.
Opposition politician Edmundo González Urrutia, who independent auditors believe to have won July’s election by a landslide, had promised to return to Venezuela from exile to take office — a difficult proposition that had, nonetheless, raised hopes of an eleventh hour challenge to Maduro’s ongoing rule.
But on Friday, opposition leader María Corina Machado said the government had closed the nation’s airspace, pushing González to postpone his attempted return. On Friday a top army commander posted a video on social media of a Russian surface-to-air missile system being deployed in what was seen as a threat to shoot González’s plane down if he attempted to fly back to Venezuela. The border with Colombia and Brazil was reopened today, after a shutdown that started Friday in response to an alleged “international conspiracy.”
Machado called for ongoing protests against Maduro, a day after she herself was briefly detained after reappearing in public for the first time in six months.
The inauguration marks a watershed in Venezuela’s struggle to democratize, a particular letdown after last year’s presidential election raised hopes of a transition from Chavismo. Instead, after apparently losing the election, the government doubled down on repression against protesters and critics. More than 1,700 people were detained, including at least 75 political detentions in the past two weeks, according to Foro Penal. The new phase of Venezuelan politics will be marked by more repression and the destruction of remaining civil liberties, according to Efecto Cocuyo.
Phil Gunson, a Venezuela expert at the International Crisis Group think tank, warned of a looming "Nicaragua situation, where there will be no space at all for any kind of dissent." (AFP)
Venezuela’s case sets a “dangerous precedent” for democracies in the hemisphere, WOLA president Carolina Jiménez Sandoval told the Washington Post showing that “in the 21st century, an important country in Latin America can disregard the will and sovereignty of the people and remain in a de facto government.”
The moment also shattered hopes that regional diplomacy led by Brazil and Colombia could push both sides to negotiate a transition. Most countries in the region will not recognize the new Maduro administration. The governments of Argentina, Canada, the US and Peru are among those to have recognized González as Venezuela’s rightful president-elect, while the EU, UK, Brazil and Colombia have refused to recognize Maduro’s claim to victory — a stance that could maintain diplomatic channels of negotiation aimed at a transition.
In response to Maduro’s new term, the U.S. Biden administration said that it was offering $25 million for information leading to his arrest. It also issued a $25 million reward for Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello and a $15 million reward for Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino, as well as new sanctions against eight other officials including the head of state oil company PDVSA Hector Obregon. The UK and the EU announced sanctions targeting 15 individuals linked to Maduro’s regime.
The U.S. also said it would extend protections for roughly 600,000 Venezuelan migrants living in the United States with temporary protected status. The measure allows those who apply to stay for an extra 18 months.
Venezuela’s government has prepared for a potential hardline stance from the U.S. Since the elections Venezuelan security forces have detained up about 50 visitors and dual-passport holders from more than a dozen countries, according to the watchdog group Foro Penal. These could be potential bargaining chips in negotiations regarding international sanctions.
(Washington Post, New York Times, New York Times, Guardian, Guardian, Efecto Cocuyo, Efecto Cocuyo, Reuters, Associated Press, Associated Press, El País, El País, El País, Financial Times)
More Venezuela
Maduro said he is preparing an armed offensive with Cuba and Nicaragua in response to alleged foreign interventions. “We are preparing ourselves together with Cuba and Nicaragua and together with our older brothers in the world so that if one day we have to take up arms and defend the right to peace and sovereignty, we will fight in an armed struggle and win again. We are not lukewarm leaders, we are the Bolivarian revolution,” he said during the closing of the second meeting of the World Festival of the Antifascist International. (El País)
Ecuador
“One year after the declaration of ‘internal armed conflict’ by the Ecuadorian President in the country, the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) urges the government and the international community to recognise, and provide comprehensive humanitarian assistance to, all people who are being forced to flee their homes due to violence from organised criminal groups.” - Americas Migration Brief
The case of the Guayaquil Four, a group of children whose bodied were found charred and dismembered two weeks after they were forced into a military patrol car by members of the Ecuadorian air force, has cast a spotlight how the Noboa administration’s crackdown on crime has disproportionately affected Black communities, reports the Guardian.
A CEDA report from December explores how violence, the expansion of organized crime, economic fragility, and the escalating impacts of climate change are driving internal displacement and external migration from Ecuador. (Americas Migration Brief)
Migration
The incoming Trump administration plans to rapidly reinstate Title 42, which facilitates rapid expulsion from the border and prevents access to seeking asylum by citing a public health emergency. “Trump’s advisers have spent months trying to identify a disease that will help them build their case for closing the border,” reports the New York Times. (Americas Migration Brief)
The U.S. Biden administration extended temporary humanitarian protections for about 230,000 Salvadorans and 600,000 Venezuelans living in the U.S., in an effort to shield those groups the incoming Trump administration’s promises to deport them. (Guardian, Associated Press)
Regional Relations
“Mexico and Canada are sending firefighters and equipment to help battle the blazes scorching Southern California, an expression of solidarity” at a time when the incoming U.S. president is threatening both countries with tariffs, reports the Washington Post.
Brazil
Brazil is grappling with how to regulate online gambling. Digital betting apps are also shaking the foundations of the country’s illegal “animal lottery,” with connections to criminal mafias, reports the New York Times.
At least 10 people have died after landslides swept through two cities in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais. (BBC)
Argentina
The International Monetary Fund continues to praise the Argentine Milei administration’s economic program, but “is making observations and recommendations, too. Among them are the need to remove exchange controls, increase exchange rate flexibility, maintain positive interest rates, and introduce automatic tariff adjustments,” reports the Buenos Aires Herald.
Guyana
Guyana’s government is drastically boosting public spending — including a cash transfer program announced last year — ahead of elections in November of this year. President Irfaan Ali is seeking a second term and stronger representation in the country’s parliament, reports Americas Quarterly.
Regional
St. Vincent and the Grenadines hopes to acquire the privately owned island of Baliceaux, where thousands of Garifuna were sent to die by the British government in the 1790s, after decades of resistance to colonial rule. (Guardian)
Culture Corner
Colombian artist Doris Salcedo, known for her work on collective trauma, in particular that of her native country, has turned her focus to the climate catastrophe and the plight of migrants, reports the Guardian.