Machado said safeguards are on the table
Aug. 9, 2024
“Guarantees” and “incentives” are on the table for negotiations with Venezuela’s government, opposition leader Maria Corina Machado said in an interview yesterday. Such safeguards would hinge on President Nicolás Maduro’s willingness to recognize opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia’s victory in the July 28 presidential elections, she said. (Miami Herald)
Machado told Colombian television channel Caracol that any offers to deal with the Maduro regime are in “too much of a preliminary stage to say that a negotiation exists.”
Yesterday Brazil, Mexico and Colombia released a statement again calling on Maduro to release the full voting tallies, saying it would be “convenient” to have independent verification of whatever official results are released, and that security forces should guarantee the right to protest, within the bounds of the law. (Silla Vacía)
Without the support of China and Russia, who have backed Maduro and given recognition to his government, there will be no multilateral solution to the crisis engulfing Venezuela, Chatham House’s Christopher Sabatini told the Guardian: “It’s really going to come down to either bilateral or ad hoc diplomacy.”
More Venezuela
After the election, Venezuela’s Chavista government retains control of the country’s institutions and security forces — but has lost its popular mandate, notably among the country’s poor. While international mediation can help, pressure on Venezuela’s streets by citizens anxious to make their votes matter will be decisive, writes Boris Muñoz in Boom.
There are no signs that the regime is on the edge of loosening its hold on power — but important signs to keep an eye out for include military loyalty, political internal division, and loss of support from international allies, reports Americas Quarterly. (For more on transitions, see Cenital.)
Fear of repression has created an unofficial curfew on Caracas’ streets, reports the BBC. (See yesterday’s post.)
In the midst of a X fight with Elon Musk, Maduro blocked access to the social media platform in Venezuela for ten days. Earlier this week Maduro urged supporters to abandon WhatsApp saying the messaging app was being used to threaten the families of soldiers and police officers. He has also lashed out against TikTok and Instagram. (AFP, Associated Press)
Social media is one of the few spaces for consuming news and promoting relatively free content in Venezuela reports El País, and been a space “used and exploited by Chavismo with tenacity in its communication strategies.”
Amnesty International sent an open letter to the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, Karim Khan, calling for urgent action on the commission of crimes under international law in Venezuela.
Regional Relations
“In a call hosted by the Washington think tank Atlantic Council on Thursday, Frank Mora, the U.S. ambassador to the Organization of American States, said he understood the frustration of those calling for bolder action from the United States, given the Maduro regime’s crackdown on protesters, members of the opposition and journalists. However, he said it was important to give initiatives such as those initiated by Brazil, Colombia and Mexico “space to move forward.”” - Miami Herald
International mediation is the best bet to reach a power sharing agreement between the opposition and Maduro — and will be critical to ensuring the Latin American left’s electoral viability moving forward, argues Will Freeman in the Council on Foreign Relations.
Nicaragua and Brazil recalled their ambassadors, effectively freezing diplomatic relations. The trigger was the Brazilian ambassador’s absence from celebrations of the 45th anniversary of Nicaragua’s Sandinista revolution, but relations have been deteriorating since Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva unsuccessfully attempted to intervene for the release of a Catholic bishop persecuted by Ortega’s government, reports Folha de S. Paulo. (See also Associated Press)
US “federal investigators say they found the DNA of a decorated former U.S. Green Beret on some of the 60 automatic weapons he allegedly smuggled from Florida to South America as part of a failed 2020 coup attempt against” Maduro, reports the Associated Press.
Paraguay’s government effectively ordered the U.S. ambassador to leave, after the U.S. Biden administration sanctioned on a tobacco company linked to Paraguay’s powerful former president, Horacio Cartes. (Associated Press)
Argentine President Javier Milei was in Chile yesterday, but he did not meet with Chilean President Gabriel Boric. (Página 12)
Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador rejected a request from Ukraine's government to arrest Vladimir Putin if the Russian leader defies an international arrest warrant and attends the inauguration of Mexico's next president in October. (Reuters)
Colombia
Colombian President Gustavo Petro suggested that Ivan Mordisco, the commander of the Estado Mayor Central rebel group, was planning to have him assassinated by snipers. A ceasefire between Colombia’s government and the EMC broke down last month. (Reuters)
“Two years into President Gustavo Petro’s administration, Total Peace, the Colombian government’s flagship policy to end the country’s civil conflict, analysis suggests that criminal groups have grown in strength while peace remains a distant prospect,” explains InSight Crime based on a new report by PARES.
“Significant security and peace efforts advancements are unlikely in the next two years. Ongoing peace initiatives will likely continue to stall, wasting time and resources while allowing armed groups to consolidate and gain strength in anticipation of dealing with Petro’s successor,” according to a report by Colombia Risk Analysis.
Mexico
Mexico’s ruling Morena party plans to adjust President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s controversial judicial reform proposal in a bid to calm market concerns, reports Reuters. Changes would stagger the election of judges, to prevent a political takeover of the judiciary, and candidates would be selected by a technical committee after undergoing suitability tests. (See Wednesday’s briefs.)
Mexican business groups warned economic damage as a protest blockade of Mexico’s main east-west highway reached its second full day, reports the Associated Press.
Migration
Migrant crossings into the U.S. have plunged after President Joe Biden’s asylum ban. But top Democrats are asking about the human cost, reports the Guardian.
Venezuelan refugees on a knife-edge at the Colombian border – photo essay by Euan Wallace in the Guardian.
Ecuador
A growing number of doctors in Ecuador have been targeted by gangs, putting the country’s strained healthcare system at further risk, reports the Guardian.
A year after Ecuadorean presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio was murdered on the campaign trail, the investigation into his killing is entangled by corruption and security failures, reports El País.
El Salvador
Bukele’s government has been undercounting homicides since its 2022 crackdown, according to Foreign Policy.
Peru
The United Nations denounced the passage of a bill in Peru that bars prosecution of crimes against humanity committed before 2002, saying it ran contrary to international law — AFP
Argentina
Photos of former first lady Fabiola Yáñez sporting bruises and a black eye have scandalized Argentina. She has accused former President Alberto Fernández of gender violence. (Buenos Aires Herald)
His former vice president, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner said the pictures “reveal the most sordid and dark side of the human condition” and that “misogyny, machismo and hypocrisy, the pillars on which verbal or physical violence against women is based, do not have a partisan banner.” (Infobae)
Pope Francis received the daughter and granddaughter of a person disappeared by Argentina’s last dictatorship — and called on his home country to maintain policies of memory and justice, in the midst of a scandal after ruling party lawmakers visited human rights violators in jail. (El País)
Regional
Members of the International Seabed Authority elected Leticia Carvalho of Brazil as the group’s new secretary general last week amid growing support for a preliminary halt to deep-sea mining, reports the Associated Press.
Carvalho told Foreign Policy her fight to defend natural habitats in the face of powerful extractive interests comes from her background enforcing Brazilian environmental policy — Latin America Brief
Critter Corner
“With floppy ears and a tail on his costume coming unstitched after all the wrestling, Wisin the “puppy luchador” has captured the imagination of fans across Mexico.” — Associated Press
Thank you for your consistent and thorough journalism with the links to read more. This is my favorite source for news on Substack!!