Machado appears at opposition rally
Aug. 5, 2024
Tens of thousands of Venezuelans participated in an anti-government rally in Caracas on Saturday, reports the Guardian. Demonstrators were joined by opposition leader María Corina Machado, who had been in hiding during the week in response to threats from the government. Protests also took place in cities including Valencia, Maracaibo and San Cristobal, reports Reuters.
“Today is a very important day. After six days of brutal repression they thought they would silence us, frighten us and paralyse us … [But] we are going to go all the way,” Machado told supporters, speaking from a platform on a truck. “We are not afraid!” the crowd chanted back.
When the rally ended, Machado was given a non-descript shirt and whisked away on the back of a motorcycle, reports the Associated Press.
The gatherings came after the country’s electoral authority reaffirmed, on Friday, questioned results giving President Nicolás Maduro his second reelection.
Protesters turned out despite considerable danger: at least 20 people have been killed in post-election protests, according to rights groups. Security forces seek to disuade protesters: all of the deaths were caused by firearms, and in most of the cases, the bullets hit victims’ upper torsos. “They’re shooting to kill,” reports Runrun.es.
The government said 2,000 people have been arrested in connection with the demonstrations. Detainees do not receive procedural guarantees, most are denied access to lawyers or family visits. Family members say many people were detained or simply attending peaceful protests or speaking out against the government online online. (Guardian)
Venezuela’s “government has unleashed an open, televised and unprecedentedly violent persecution against protesters, political leaders, activists and, of course, the heads of the opposition leadership,” reports El País. “Police and intelligence services are on the streets hunting down opponents as part of the so-called “Operation Tun Tun.” The state has issued a widespread propaganda, warning that security forces will knock on the doors of Venezuelans’ homes to arrest them.”
Pirate Wire Services reports that: “Thousands of Venezuelans have deactivated their social media accounts or gone private after the relaunch of “Operation Tun Tun (knock knock)” by the Venezuelan government, which consists of a webpage, WhatsApp number, and an app that allows users to anonymously report neighbors or acquaintances for “subversive activity” like attending protests, posting anti-government statements on social media, or even criticizing the government verbally. Security forces then detain suspects at their residences, usually charging them under the country’s “Anti-hate law”, which allows up to 20 years of imprisonment for statements that “incite hatred” against government officials.”
Protests have taken place in Caracas’ shantytowns, longtime Chavista bastions. The mass mobilization of Venezuela’s poor is threatening to Maduro, which is why he unleashed particularly violent repression, according to the Guardian.
On Friday Venezuela’s Supreme Court gave the Consejo Nacional Electoral (CNE) a deadline of 72 hours to present the results — rumors are rife that the government has advanced with falsification of evidence, though forgeries of the printed tallies are technically difficult.
This weekend Maduro presided over the promotion of soldiers wounded in the post-electoral protests. Efecto Cocuyo As repression intensifies, the armed forces’ loyalty is increasingly vital for Maduro (see below). Maduro promised to “pulverize” dissidents and told troops he is “willing to do anything” to protect his “revolution,” reports the Guardian.
About a hundred soldiers are guarding what might be Venezuela’s last remaining statue of Hugo Chávez, reports El País.
“Contrary, perhaps, to the belief that the toppling of Chávez statues is due to anger against the former president, it is rather a symbol that Maduro’s government no longer has to pay tribute to the founding father,” writes Luz Mely Reyes in El País.
More Venezuela
The printed tally sheets from each individual voting machine have been critical for opposition efforts to prove electoral fraud — and undergird international pressure on Maduro regarding the results. While opposition observers are legally permitted at each polling station, and are entitled to a copy of the voting tally, the government sought to stymie this access in numerous ways during the July 29 vote. Efecto Cocuyo tells the incredible stories of the volunteers who smuggled the tallies out in an “electoral gymkhana designed by the opposition.”
El País also reports on the “comanditos,” the citizen activists who monitored the election and provided proof of fraud.
“Just as Maduro is unlikely to relinquish power without a fight, Venezuelans are unlikely to accept a tainted election passively,” reports Americas Quarterly. “From here, possible scenarios include the government violently and successfully stifling dissent as happened after other elections celebrated in the past decade; the release of a new election tally with verifiable evidence; or a negotiated solution between the government and the opposition.”
Electoral transitions from democracy are the exception rather the norm, Steven Levitsky told me for an article in Cenital analyzing possible transition scenarios for Venezuela. “It's not easy to bring down a dictatorship, particularly one that's entrenched.” Venezuela’s security forces, rather potential schisms within them, could be key to overturning Maduro.
Another key factor will be guarantees aimed at protecting officials from prosecution for human rights crimes committed by the government. While this isn’t legally possible for crimes against humanity, other perpetrators of other violations could benefit from pardons or alternatives to prison in exchange for collaboration, Tamara Taraciuk Broner told me for Cenital.
A successful transition process will require that the opposition leverage the significant social indignation following Maduro’s electoral fraud, and provide off ramp guarantees to convince government officials that negotiation is better than repression, write Maryhen Jiménez, Mariano de Alba and Antulio Rosales in El País.
International mediation efforts, led by Brazil, Colombia and Mexico, are currently focused on getting Maduro to sit down with González, reported El País on Friday. The strategy would sideline María Corina Machado, the leader who has galvanized opposition to Venezuela’s government and is apparently Maduro’s “red line.”
Latin America’s biggest left-leaning governments are pushing back against Maduro's electoral fraud in Venezuela — they demand the government publish detailed voting records. This is a significant diplomatic shift within the remnants of the “pink tide.” Their studiedly unhostile approach to Venezuela’s crisis — at the cost of not denouncing repression — is part of a regional strategy to push for a transition, I write in the Guardian.
Former Argentine President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner joined leftist leaders from the region pushing Maduro to present detailed voting results. She called on her former ally to present voting records in the name of Hugo Chávez’s legacy, while also criticizing the deleterious effect of U.S. sanctions. (Buenos Aires Herald)
Spain, Italy, France, Germany, The Netherlands, Poland and Portugal joined calls for Venezuela’s electoral authorities to release full voting records. (Efecto Cocuyo)
Pope Francis said Venezuela “was undergoing "a critical situation", sent "a heartfelt appeal to all parties to seek the truth and exercise moderation to avoid any type of violence." (AFP)
Chile’s Communist Party has backed Maduro, as have the governments of Honduras, Bolivia, Cuba and Nicaragua. Patricio Fernández calls for the “new left” to challenge the “corrupted left” in Boom.
Support from China, Cuba, Iran, Nicaragua and Russia is one of the key reasons Maduro remains in power, writes James Bosworth in World Politics Report. “Venezuela’s authoritarian allies aren’t helping Maduro out of ideological affinity or kindness. Instead, it’s due to a mixture of self-interested profit-taking and short-term opportunism, in that Venezuela’s crisis can distract Washington from broader geopolitical issues. To put it bluntly, they are leeches, draining whatever last drops of blood they can from a country that has already been almost completely bled dry.”
Argentine President Javier Milei has found a perfect adversary in Maduro, the feeling is apparently mutual. - El País
Argentina
The mother of an Argentine human rights activist, and widow of a person disappeared by the last military dictatorship, was found murdered this weekend. The killing of Susana Beatriz Montoya has outraged human rights activists who have warned for months that the government’s vitriolic negationist discourse represents a real danger. (Buenos Aires Herald)
Migration
One of the most significant impacts and indicators of how Venezuela’s crisis evolves is and will be migration, according to CEDA. As Venezuela's political turmoil deepens, the escalating migration crisis will challenge the region's capacity to manage and integrate displaced individuals, intensify humanitarian needs, strain diplomatic relations, and necessitate a coordinated international response.
“Venezuela has also pulled their diplomatic corps from seven countries, leaving a gap in documentation services for Venezuelans in those countries, which may impact their ability to regularize status, obtain services, and effectively integrate in their host communities,” warns Jordi Amaral in the Americas Migration Brief.
“In a poll of Venezuelan voters two months ago, more than 40% indicated they would consider leaving the country if Maduro remains in power,” notes Emerson Collective’s Immigration Update. (via Americas Migration Brief)
Drowning, sexual violence, or robbery: Pick your route through the Darién — The New Humanitarian reports on the dangers of the migrant trek from Colombia to Panama. “As governments in the region impose new restrictions, the dangers of those travelling northwards trying to reach the United States are only likely to increase.”
Mexico
The Constitutional Commission of Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies approved two more measures that form part of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s “Plan C” of constitutional reform. The two measures involve railroads and limits to public officials salaries, including those in the judicial sector, reports Animal Político.
Regional Relations
The evolving narrative of how Sinaloa Cartel leader Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada Garcia “ended up in U.S. custody may seem inconsequential. … But it does have wide-ranging ramifications for both Mexico and the United States,” argue the editors of World Politics Review.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is in Chile on an official state visit. (La Tercera)
Olympics
Brazilian high jump Olympic athlete Valdileia Martins grew up in an MST community — she learned to jump using mattresses filled with rice straw to break her fall. (UOL)
Dominica and St. Lucia in the Caribbean won gold medals in the ongoing Paris Olympics, each was a first for their country. (New York Times)