Lula floats new elections in Venezuela
Aug. 15, 2024
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva floated that Venezuela’s government should call a new election, as the crisis over the challenged results of July’s presidential vote prolongues. U.S. President Joe Biden said today he would support new elections. (El País)
“Maduro still has six months left in his term. He is the president regardless of the election. If he has good sense, he could call upon the people of Venezuela, perhaps even call for new elections, create an electoral committee and allow observers from around the world to monitor,” Lula said in a press interview.
His closest international advisor, Celso Amorim, spoke to a Brazilian Senate committee this morning, and said that a new election would need to be verified in a solid and robust manner, reports the Associated Press.
But María Corina Machado, Venezuela’s strongest opposition leader, forcefully rejected any possibility of a new election, saying redoing the election would be “an insult” to the people, and she asked if second election were held and Maduro still didn't accept the results, "do we go for a third one?”
Lula and Colombian President Gustavo Petro discussed options for negotiating an end to the Venezuelan crisis in a phone call yesterday. They reportedly hope to arrange a conversation between Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and the opposition presidential candidate Edmundo González. Neither Lula nor Petro is willing to recognize Maduro’s claim to reelection without detailed voting tallies being made public. (Reuters, El País)
Petro proposed power sharing agreement, on social media yesterday, based on Colombia’s history. Such a process might entail lifting all international sanctions and a general amnesty, he wrote on social media, yesterday. (El País, EFE)
On Tuesday Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador pulled out of the three-way efforts to mediate in Venezuela’s crisis, and said he would wait for a review that Venezuela's Supreme Court will conduct of the election. (Reuters)
Compromise solutions like those floated by Lula and Petro have been torn apart by commentators, but realistically aim to prevent a further slide into authoritarianism in Venezuela, writes James Bosworth in Latin America Risk Report. “If somehow Maduro can be moved towards one of these compromise solutions, it holds back the full Nicaraguazation of the situation for a few more months. It keeps the potential for a political transition alive and keeps the pressure and attention on Maduro. Another election, in particular, allows Venezuelans yet another peaceful opportunity to demonstrate their rejection of the current regime, even if there is not a clear route toward making that next election any better or more likely to create a transition than the one last month.”
Diplomatic efforts like that led by Lula and Petro are the best option for Venezuela, argues CEPR, noting that priori failed policies like sanctions are “unlikely to convince the Maduro administration to give up power, will certainly cost many lives, and will cause much additional suffering.”
More Venezuela
“In response to Maduro’s brutal crackdown, media initiatives Venezuela Vota and #LaHoraDeVenezuela are leveraging Artificial Intelligence technologies to spread stories while keeping journalists safe,” reports the Caracas Chronicles.
More than 40% of all Venezuelans say that they are now considering fleeing their country according to a poll by Venezuelan firm Meganalisis. The poll suggests that about 600,000 people are considering leaving before the middle of next month, while an additional 930,000 would leave between October and December, reports the Miami Herald.
Countries in the region are bracing for the surge, reports the Associated Press.
A group of 25 rights organizations denounced Venezuelan government repression against protesters. According to the Venezuelan NGO Foro Penal, more than 1,350 people have been arbitrarily detained throughout the country, without any procedural guarantees. In addition to demonstrators, the government has detained human rights defenders, activists and lawyers, and has prevented in most cases any independent legal representation by private defenders and civil society organizations.
De Moraes rejects allegations of impropriety
Brazilian Supreme Court Judge Alexandre de Moraes and government officials pushed back against allegations of impropriety related to an investigations he carried out regarding an electoral misinformation campaign by former President Jair Bolsonaro and supporters.
Folha de S. Paulo reported that a trove of messages and documents it obtained show de Moraes allegedly ordered Brazil’s top electoral court to produce reports that supported his own investigations.
De Moraes has long been a controversial figure — critics like Bolsonaro and Elon Musk say he has abused his power, while supporters credit him with defending Brazilian democracy from concerted efforts to undermine it.
Members of the Supreme Federal Court, the Attorney General of the Republic, senators, and Lula administration officials came de Moraes’ defense following Folha’s allegations. (Folha de S. Paulo, Poder 360)
While the report has pushed an impeachment request in Congress, it is not likely to endanger de Moraes’ position, reports Bloomberg: Senate head Rodrigo Pacheco does not intend to follow up on the request when it is officially filed. (Valor)
More Brazil
Brazilian activists have raised the alarm over police violence in Bahia state. A new report by Unicef and the Brazilian Forum on Public Safety. revealed that more children and adolescents are killed by the region’s security forces than anywhere else in the country, reports the Guardian.
Guatemala
Guatemala’s police arrested a member of President Bernardo Arévalo’s administration Tuesday for alleged campaign finance violations. Arévalo said Ligia Hernández, head of the government’s victims’ advocacy agency, is a victim of a months-long pursuit of his political party by federal prosecutors. (El País, Associated Press, AFP)
“After almost nine months in office, Bernardo Arévalo's decisions regarding his cabinet have shown that they did not really expect to govern,” according to El Faro. “The inexperience of the party in public management, systematic persecution by the attorney general, and focus on their online image seem to be some of the causes for dismissal of senior officials, and the difficulty to execute an agenda.”
Regional Relations
British Prince Harry and his wife Meghan arrive in Colombia today, at the invitation of Vice President Francia Márquez, where they will take part in several events, including a forum against cyberbullying, reports the Associated Press.
Haiti recalled most of its diplomatic staff in Suriname, and fired locally hired contractors “after French authorities raised concerns that diplomatic staff could possibly be complicit in Suriname being used as a way station for Haitian migrants seeking to enter French territories,” reports the Miami Herald.
The U.S. embassy in Havana will start issuing visas again — a process stopped under the Trump administration, which forced Cuban seeking visas to travel to third countries, reports the Miami Herald.
“The most recent Pew Research Center survey puts numbers on the long and complex relationship between the United States and Mexico and reveals the change of opinion among many Americans with respect to their southern neighbor: 60% have a negative view of Mexico compared to 37% who express a positive perception. In the case of Mexicans, the exact opposite is true. Sixty-one percent of those surveyed have a favorable stance towards the United States, while 33% do not.” - El País
Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador lashed out at U.S. funding for a Mexican anti-corruption nonprofit group, saying Mexicans Against Corruption and Impunity is part of the conservative opposition, and shouldn’t receive foreign funding or tax deductible contributions. The group denies that it is allied with any political party and said the donations were legal and had been reported to authorities, reports the Associated Press.
Mexico
“Controversy and conflicting narratives persist around the arrests of two top Sinaloa Cartel leaders in the United States, raising questions about what led to the detentions and how the historic leadership blow may impact one of Mexico’s most powerful drug trafficking organizations,” reports InSight Crime. (See Monday’s post.)
Jamaica
Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness declared a state of emergency yesterday in Clarendon parish after eight people were killed in separate gun attacks on Sunday night, including a seven-year-old boy. (Reuters)
Holness said he hoped the measure would prevent reprisal killings, saying intelligence had warned there was a “very high probability” of retaliation attempts, reports the Guardian.
Argentina
Argentine President Javier Milei shut down a special government unit tasked with investigating the disappearance of children who were kidnapped as babies by the 1976-1983 dictatorship. (Buenos Aires Times)
An Argentine federal prosecutor formally charged former President Alberto Fernández with committing violence against former first lady Fabiola Yáñez, yesterday. (Associated Press)
Former President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner testified in a trial against three people accused of attempting to assassinate her — she criticized that judicial efforts have focused on the material authors rather than the masterminds of the failed attempt. (El País, Buenos Aires Herald)
Bolivia
Journalist and scholar Benjamin Dangl speaks with veteran and emerging Indigenous and feminist media makers and community organizers in Bolivia for Nacla.
Indigenous Aymara journalist Rosa Jalja has spent over 50 years informing and strengthening community through the airwaves on the shores of Lake Titicaca in Bolivia — Nacla
Critter Corner
Overfishing, invasive species and rubbish mountains are putting a strain on the The Galapagos Islands’ delicate ecosystems, reports the Guardian.