Latin America Daily Briefing

and

Feb 08, 2024

Peru

A new Crisis Group report explores the state of democracy and institutional (in)stability in Peru, arguing, “Concrete near-term steps to reform the party system to make it more responsive to citizens and stem the destructive battles between the executive and legislature are essential for curbing political turmoil. Regional and national dialogue, backed by foreign partners, should help frame a longer-term agenda for constitutional and economic change.”

El Salvador

“El Salvador's electoral authority on Wednesday said it would begin to hand count ballots for the country's presidential and legislative assembly elections after reporting there were system failures in transmitting the votes,” reports Reuters, noting, “President Nayib Bukele's victory, with 83% of the majority of the vote counted, is not in doubt, but the spotlight is on the country's 60 congressional seats.” (see yesterday’s LADB for more)
In a New York Times op-ed, Will Freeman and Lucas Perelló argue that “the conditions that allowed him [Bukele] to wipe out El Salvador’s gangs are unlikely to jointly appear elsewhere in Latin America,” making it unlikely for Bukele’s admirers - such as Honduras’ Xiomara Castro or Argentina Security Minister Patricia Bullrich - to be able to follow Bukele’s anti-gang model with widespread success.

Argentina

A campaign promise from President Javier Milei seems to be taking effect, as ruling party La Libertad Avanza presented a draft bill to legislators to repeal Argentina’s law legalizing abortion, says La Prensa Latina. The bill also seeks for abortion to be criminalized “for both the woman and those who participate in the procedure.”
Milei’s proposed economic reforms have stumbled in Congress, but his retaliatory response has further upended the agenda “as government bonds plunged in international markets,” notes Bloomberg.
“The president needs to check his ego to build a working congressional coalition,” counsels James Bosworth at the Latin America Risk Report.
Consumer prices increased over 238% over the past year, rising 21.7% in Buenos Aires City in the last month alone, reports Buenos Aires Times.

Brazil

Reuters reports that search warrants have been issued for some of Jair Bolsonaro’s top aides, including former minister and former vice-presidential candidate, former defense minister, and former justice minister, as part of an ongoing police investigation into Bolsonaro’s potential attempted coup, following his electoral loss in 2022.

Haiti

“Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry urged calm in a public address early Thursday following three days of violent protests that have paralyzed the country as thousands of protesters demand his resignation,” reports AP.
“At least five agents of Haiti's BSAP, an armed environmental agency that in recent years has evolved into a paramilitary body, were killed in a shootout with national police in Port-au-Prince on Wednesday,” reports Reuters.

Ecuador

The recent war on gangs, declared by President Daniel Noboa following the wave of violence in Guayaquil in January, has alarmed human rights activists who warn civil liberties might be in danger, reports the New York Times.
“Ecuador becomes second Latin American state to decriminalise euthanasia” (BBC)

Regional

CSIS’ 2024 Global Forecast report outlines the ways US influence in the region has declined over the past twenty years, leading to an expansion of Chinese interests in Latin America in the Caribbean. Ryan Berg proposes a three-pronged plan for the US to “insulate, curtail, and compete” with growing Chinese influence in the region.
“Panama’s former President Ricardo Martinelli has received political asylum from Nicaragua days after the country’s Supreme Court denied his appeal over a money laundering conviction that carried a 10-year sentence,” reports AP.

Mexico

Mexico is once again the main country from which the US imports, following over two decades of Chinese dominance, according to El Economista. The last time the US imported more goods from Mexico than China was in 2002.

Venezuela

In Americas Quarterly, Mark Feierstein argues that Nicolás Maduro “faces two unpalatable choices” as the country heads towards elections, but that a diplomatic solution to the country’s electoral shortcomings are even more necessary in the coming months.

Colombia

The Guardian tells the story of how indigenous communities worked together with Colombian armed forces to locate four missing children following a plane crash over the Amazon.

Guatemala

Despite a recent announcement that Guatemala would seek official trade ties with China, the foreign ministry reaffirmed yesterday its ties with Taiwan, reports Reuters.