Latin America Daily Briefing
May 28, 2024
Venezuela
The winner takes all nature of the upcoming Venezuelan presidential elections is a political trap that leaves the country’s leaders without incentives to hold free and fair elections: “A negotiated settlement between Chavismo and the opposition is the key to a successful election and democratic transition,” argues Michael Penfold in Americas Quarterly.
Colombian Foreign Minister Luis Murillo denied a report that Colombian officials have an official proposal for an agreement between Venezuela’s government and the opposition to provide guarantees for the lose of the July 28 election, report Efecto Cocuyo. (See yesterday’s briefs.)
Regional
Catastrophic flooding in Brazil has forced thousands of people from their homes, many will not return — experts say this is the climate refugee future, reports the Washington Post. “The disaster, Brazilians say, has the makings of a historic pivot point, when the Western Hemisphere’s second most populous country is forced to address its climate vulnerability by rethinking where and how it lives.”
“Latin America may be better prepared to meet the challenge of an aging population than other regions because of its relative openness to migration. The region already hosts nearly one third of the world’s displaced population, including over 85 percent of the more than 7 million Venezuelans who have left their country,” write Will Freeman and Shannon O’Neill in Latin America’s Moment.
The International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea ruled last week that greenhouse gas emissions absorbed by oceans must be regarded as marine pollution, mandating states to take necessary measures to protect marine environments. This landmark decision is seen as a critical step in addressing climate justice for nations at the forefront of climate change, including many in the Caribbean. (See today’s Just Caribbean Updates.)
The fourth International Conference on Small Island Developing States, organized by the United Nations, started in Antigua and Barbuda yesterday and focuses on international assistance for development goals, reports the Miami Herald. (See today’s Just Caribbean Updates.)
Chilean crime investigator Pablo Zeballos describes what he calls "the fourth wave" of evolution of transnational criminal organizations and suggests fresh approaches — In.Visibles.
Haiti
The sputtering preparations for the international security mission to Haiti give the country’s gangs more time to fortify what could be a fierce response. Gang cooperation, access to high-caliber weapons, and new-found wealth derived from increased participation in drug trafficking amount to an extraordinary increase in the tactical potency of the gangs, Brookings Institution’s Vanda Felbab-Brown told InSight Crime. (See yesterday’s post and Friday’s.)
Guatemala
The presidential mantle is doubly heavy for Guatemalan President Bernardo Arévalo, writes Juan Elman in a profile for Cenital. He faces pressure and impatience from his base, the Semilla movement, and works in the shadow of his father’s historic legacy. “Arévalo, unlike his predecessors who governed from offices in the presidential residence, has occupied the office that his father had in the national palace. He has a portrait of him next to his, placed prominently on a shelf in front of his desk. He signs documents with the same pen as him. The President told me that his father appeared to him “every day,” especially because of some ethical dilemma, and that it was during the campaign – older voters would approach him and remind him of how his father had changed them.”
Arévalo has scored a handful of wins in his first four months in office — but the next few months will present make or break hurdles for his reform agenda, according to Will Freeman and Shannon O’Neill. (Latin America’s Moment)
Arévalo said that China had rejected entry to some shipments from the Central American nation, speculating that this could be due to Guatemala's diplomatic relationship with Taiwan, reports Reuters.
Regional Relations
It’s tempting to write off Argentine President Javier Milei’s discursively combative foreign policy as low-cost pandering to his electoral base — but the experience of Brazil’s international isolation under President Jair Bolsonaro demonstrates the diplomatic cost of the approach, which “made foreign policy more vulnerable to the president's needs to mobilize their followers,” Oliver Stuenkel told me for Cohete a la Luna.
Argentina
Milei replaced his cabinet chief last night, Guillermo Francos shifted from the interior ministry to occupy the post. The administration’s first cabinet shuffle comes as the president’s signature reform bill continues to face congressional obstacles and a market rally for government bonds and the local currency appears to be stalling, report Reuters.
An Argentine court ordered the government to release tons of food acquired for poverty alleviation, but held in storage pending an audit President Javier Milei ordered of soup kitchens. (AFP)
Milei is in the U.S. — his fourth trip to the country since assuming office in December — to meet with tech CEOs, including Apple and OpenAI chief executives, Google CEO Sundar Pichai and Meta chief Mark Zuckerberg. (Financial Times)
Venezuela
“A government-reported decline in Venezuela’s crime rate may create the illusion of a security breakthrough, but the reduction has more to do with reconfigurations in the country’s underworld than an effective state response,” reports InSight Crime.
Mexico
Mexico City’s UNESCO-listed wetlands are being brought back to life by the Indigenous chinamperos, who are striving to overcome the effects of urbanization and the climate crisis — Guardian
Peru
A logging company is encroaching on the territory of Peru’s Mashco Piro, believed to be the planet’s largest Indigenous group still living in voluntary isolation — the government hasn’t intervened, reports the Washington Post.
Peru's attorney general accused President Dina Boluarte of accepting bribes in the form of Rolex watches, in the latest twist in an ongoing corruption scandal, reports AFP.
Boluarte’s approval rating fall to a new low, with only 5% of people indicating they supported the president in a new IEP poll, reports Bloomberg.
Chile
Chilean authorities have arrested a firefighter and a forestry worker on suspicion of starting the fire which killed at least 137 people in February, reports the BBC.