Haiti on the brink
March 7, 2024
“U.S. government officials have grown alarmed that the Haiti National Police could begin to crumble within hours,” leaving the country on a rapid descent towards complete gang control, according to the Miami Herald. “The government could fall at any time”. If gang fighters seized the airport or presidential palace, “it’s over,” a Biden administration official told McClatchy.
A week after turmoil began in Haiti, “a full picture of the uprising – not to mention the tangled and obscure political and economic calculations driving it – is still emerging,” reports the Guardian.
Haitian politicians are scrambling to create new alliances in the midst of an acute crisis, in which gangs have shut down most of the capital and encircled the airport, preventing embattled Prime Minister Ariel Henry from returning home. He is currently stranded in Puerto Rico, and has been pushed to resign by the U.S. and his Caribbean peers. Henry has not made any public comments since gangs began attacking critical infrastructure late last week, reports the Associated Press.
The U.S. is moving to expedite a long-delayed multinational security mission led by Kenya, but it is unclear whether the international troops would be enough to bolster Haiti’s overwhelmed and demoralized police. The U.S. “Biden administration has ruled out contributing U.S. forces to the mission, with Pentagon leadership fiercely opposed to any deployment,” reports the Miami Herald.
The U.N. Security Council met behind closed doors yesterday to discuss the rapidly deteriorating security crisis.
U.S. officials pushed back yesterday against reports that the Biden administration asked Henry to resign (see yesterday’s post). But several officials acknowledged that Henry has been asked to “expedite the transition,” reports the Washington Post.
Caribbean leaders have also called on Henry to step down — they had in fact pushed for his resignation last month, but he pushed back. Caribbean leaders had requested Henry’s presence in Jamaica yesterday, where he was expected to accept a proposal to empower a transitional government similar to a proposal drawn up by opposition figures in Haiti and by three former Caribbean prime ministers, a group referred to as the Eminent Persons Group, reports the Miami Herald.
“A chronicle of Haiti’s seven days of bedlam – and interviews with witnesses and experts – paints a startling portrait of how an already vulnerable country and its citizens have been pushed to the limit by a highly calculated revolt whose political architects remain in the shadows,” according to the Guardian.
Criminal organizations have been a terrifying feature of Haiti for years, but “this gang-fueled violence is the armed manifestation of widespread popular anger against Henry and his government. Ordinary Haitians are furious over the ever-worsening poverty, hunger, and violence we've seen under Henry. He is a near-universally loathed public figure,” argues Matt Rivers at ABC.
One new political alliance involves former rebel leader Guy Philippe and ex-presidential candidate and senator Moïse Jean Charles, reports the Associated Press. They told Radio Caraïbes yesterday that they signed a deal to form a three-person council to lead Haiti.
Another relevant player this week is former police officer turned gang leader Jimmy “Barbeque” Cherizier who has signaled a broad alliance of criminal groups could fight the proposed international security mission as a united front, reports Reuters.
Yet, “security experts warn that any alliances between the gangs tend to be fluid and subject to change. It is not clear whether gang leaders are pressing to have a specific role in governing the country,” reports the New York Times.
Regional Relations
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva urged the international community to avoid pre-judging Venezuela’s presidential elections, now scheduled for July. (See yesterday’s post.) “We have to guarantee the presumption of innocence until there are elections, so that we can judge whether it was democratic or decent,” Lula said yesterday. (Bloomberg)
He indirectly referred to Venezuela’s banned opposition presidential candidate, María Corina Machado, saying that when he was legally prevented from running in 2018, instead of “crying” he named another candidate for that year's elections. (Infobae)
Machado responded yesterday, saying Lula’s words “are validating the abuses of an autocrat who violates the Constitution and the Barbados Agreement that you claim to support.” (Infobae)
Brazil
Lula’s approval slipped to 51% last month from 54% in December, according to the latest Genial/Quaest poll. That is its lowest level since last April. Lula’s approval among evangelical Christian voters was particularly impacted by his controversial remarks about the war in Gaza, reports Reuters.
Colombia
Thousands of people protested against political, economic and social reforms backed by Colombian President Gustavo Petro, yesterday, in marches around the country that also demanded action against deteriorating security, reports Reuters.
Honduras
U.S. “federal prosecutors in New York have rested their case against former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández, who is accused of turning the Central American country into a narco-state,” reports Democracy Now.
Argentina
Argentine President Javier Milei told students at Buenos Aires school where he once studied that abortion is murder and that he could prove it “from a mathematical, philosophical and liberal perspective." (AFP)
Sixty-eight Nobel laureates in chemistry, medicine, economics, and physics sent a letter to Milei “voicing concern that cuts to science and technology funding will hinder Argentina's development and its global contributions,” reports Reuters.
Bolivia
“The conflict between Evo Morales and Luis Arce for the Bolivian presidency in 2025 has not only split the ruling MAS party but also the social movements and labor unions that form its base,” reports Jacobin.
Critter Corner
A green honeycreeper spotted on a farm in Colombia exhibits a rare biological phenomenon known as bilateral gynandromorphism: it is both male and female — New York Times.
There is no currently acceptable and effective mechanism for external powers to restore order in such circumstances, much less to help a population rebuild its social contract and regenerate democratic norms.