Grenell headed to Caracas
Jan. 31, 2025
U.S. presidential envoy for special missions, Richard Grenell, is reportedly arriving in Venezuela today and expected to meet with President Nicolás Maduro to discuss deportation flights and the cases of several US detainees in Venezuela, reports CNN.
The news “immediately raised fears the Trump administration, which has recently suspended the extension of deportation protections for hundreds of thousands of Venezuelan migrants, is trying to cut a deal with Maduro to take back deportees,” reports the Miami Herald.
Grenell has met with political opposition leaders multiple times since Trump was elected and they were invited with him again today in Venezuela, according to CNN.
The meeting is also likely to complicate matters for U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio who is headed to Panama on his first international trip since taking office and has been highly critical of negotiations with Maduro.
Trump said last week his administration would likely stop buying oil from Venezuela and was looking "very strongly" at the South American country. (Reuters)
More Venezuela-U.S.
Chevron is seeking to protect a special U.S. license allowing it to operate in Venezuela, saying the U.S. company’s exit would give China and Russia influence in the country, reports the Financial Times.
Regional Relations
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who heads to Panama this weekend, the first in a trip to several Central American nations, outlines his Latin America realpolitik stance in the Wall Street Journal: “President Trump's foreign-policy agenda begins close to home. Among his top priorities is securing our borders and reversing the disastrous invasion abetted by the last administration. … Some countries are cooperating with us enthusiastically -- others, less so. The former will be rewarded.”
Brian Winter goes beyond the fist-pounding rhetoric on Panama to analyze possible explanations for Trump’s focus on the canal, including the potential for China to close off the ports on either end, affecting U.S. security interests — Americas Quarterly.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said today she will wait with a cool head for a decision from the United States ahead of a Saturday deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump to impose 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, reports Reuters.
Trade tariff threats will likely push most governments in Latin America to cave to Trump’s migration demands, namely to accept deportations of their own nationals and those of third countries. But “the short-term payo of strong-arming Latin America will come at the long-term cost of accelerating the region’s shift toward China and increasing its instability. The latter tends, sooner or later, to boomerang back into the United States,” warns Will Freeman in The Atlantic.
Trump’s “policies raise the possibility of a deep fracture in America’s relations with its neighbors. And the U.S. tactics could wind up backfiring. If they weaken the Mexican economy or leave the country more unstable, migration could surge and criminal activity could intensify at the border,” reports the Washington Post.
Trump’s foreign aid freeze has had immediate impact on grassroots organizations that assist migrants in Latin America, “and the future of programs to root out the violence, poverty and human rights abuses that has driven historic levels of migration in recent years are hanging by a thread,” reports the Associated Press.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said he will respond in kind if Trump places new tariffs on the country’s products, although he hopes to improve trade relations with the U.S. instead, reports Bloomberg.
Brazil
Lula is bracing for another two years of struggle with the nation’s Congress for his policy agenda, as lawmakers are on path to elect leaders to both the House and Senate who have promised to continue exerting tight control of the federal budget, reports Reuters.
Chinese workers at a BYD factory in Brazil signed abusive contracts that are akin to forced labor, reports Reuters.
Colombia
The wave of violence in Colombia’s Catatumbo region will likely consolidate a pivot in the Petro government’s negotiation policy with armed groups, according to the International Crisis Group. “The government has moved away from traditional peace talks at a national level, such as those with the ELN, that discuss broad issues such as political or economic reform. Instead, the focus is on local dialogues to address the specific concerns of each region. Instead of aiming for comprehensive demobilisation, the government is asking armed groups to dial down violence against civilians.”
Migration
Trump’s plan to detain up to 30,000 migrants in the Guantanamo Bay naval base are unrealistic based on the current situation: according to Department of Homeland Security and Navy documents from 2021 and 2022 reviewed by Drop Site News, the the Guantánamo migrant detention center only has the capacity to expand to hold 400 people, far below the announced tens of thousands. (See yesterday’s post.)
Colombian President Gustavo Petro called on his compatriots working without legal status in the United States to leave their jobs and return home as soon as possible. “Wealth is only produced by the working people,” Gustavo Petro said in a social media post. “Let’s build social wealth in Colombia.” (Associated Press)
Nicaragua
Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega and his wife, Rosario Murillo, were granted control of all state powers yesterday under a constitutional amendment ratified by the country's legislature that also elevated Murillo to the position of "co-president." (AFP)
Regional
The Inter-American Dialogue and International IDEA present a roadmap for the private sector to combat illicit money in politics and strengthen democracy in Latin America and the Caribbean.