Ecuador's fragmented criminal groups
June 6, 2025
Ecuador’s security crisis has been compounded by President Daniel Noboa’s crackdown on organized crime, which has fragmented criminal groups, according to a new ACLED report.
“To avoid a Mexico-like scenario, where organized crime groups’ splintering and shifting alliances have fueled a constant escalation of violence over the last few decades, he will need a comprehensive plan that goes beyond ad-hoc and temporary deployment of armed forces in both jails and on the streets. At the same time, Noboa faces a deeply polarized landscape with a tenuous majority in the National Assembly, which complicates governance and the passing of critical reforms, as well as a stagnating economy, which will limit his wiggle room to offer alternatives to the country’s disenfranchised youth. Meanwhile, criminal interests remain deeply embedded in the political, judicial, and security sectors, despite some efforts to expose and combat them. Further progress to root them out will depend on the commitment of the upcoming attorney general, due to be appointed, and the government’s willingness to collaborate with them.”
El Salvador
El Salvador’s state of exception, originally aimed at eradicating gang violence, has now been extended more than 38 times. “Critics argue it is increasingly used in contexts involving environmental or land-related conflict,” reports the Guardian. Communities living on land granted to landless peasants as part of El Salvador’s peace process, are particularly vulnerable: “The 1980s land redistribution programme aimed to address rural inequality by transferring land to subsistence farmers. But many titles were never recognised by later governments, leaving communities vulnerable to dispossession.”
Regional
Countries in Latin America should maintain prudent fiscal policies to strengthen their economies amid a swift escalation of trade tensions and policy uncertainty, Nigel Clarke, the International Monetary Fund's deputy managing director told Reuters.
A new report by C4DS exposes the sophisticated networks propping up Chinese squid fleets accused of illegal fishing off South America - Newsweek (Via Latin America Risk Report.)
Illegal logging in Latin America, particularly in Mexico and Brazil, finances organized crime and cartels, posing significant environmental and security threats to the region — Foreign Affairs
Colombia
Colombia saw a 33% drop in deforestation in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period last year, the environment ministry said yesterday, citing stronger community coordination and a crackdown on environmental crime. (Associated Press, Silla Vacia)
Brazil
Brazilian prosecutors filed criminal charges yesterday against the man accused of ordering the 2022 killings of Indigenous peoples advocate Bruno Pereira and British journalist Dom Phillips — exactly three years after they disappeared while on an expedition in the Amazon. (Associated Press)
Regional Relations
Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and French leader Emmanuel Macron disagreed yesterday over the EU-Mercosur free trade deal, with Lula urging Macron during a visit to Paris to sign off on a deal that angers French farmers, reports Reuters. (See yesterday’s briefs.)
The reprioritization of Latin America in the United States’ foreign policy, coupled with the high-level visits by cabinet officials, has placed China on the back foot in the region—at least temporarily,” argue Ryan Berg and Juan Carlos Pinzón Bueno in Foreign Policy.
A new InSight Crime investigation series looks at whether Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is using criminal gangs to provoke an international crisis with Guyana. “Venezuelan organized crime has already managed to penetrate Essequibo and is allied with the state. Now, the fear is that the Venezuelan government is slipstreaming behind its criminal partners right into Essequibo.”
An investigation by Armando.info uncovered a Venezuelan gold smuggling route involving five countries, eight companies, and a private aircraft, which was exposed when authorities in the Cayman Islands discovered undeclared cash hidden in the plane, revealing connections to illicit gold networks operating from Venezuela to Europe.
Venezuela
“Venezuelan opposition groups known as the “Interim Government” and the “2015 National Assembly” are alleged to have diverted over $320 million from accounts of the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) in the United States since 2019,” according to Guacamaya. (Via Latin America Risk Report.)
Mexico
Mexico’s election of judges last week raised concerns across the board about judicial independence — particularly since the entirety of the Supreme Court now has links to the ruling Morena party. To some, the damage is done, while other analysts say the links don’t mean the court is guaranteed to support the Sheinbaum government, explains Catherine Osborn in the Latin America Brief.
Haiti
In the midst of a continuously worsening security crisis, Haiti’s interim government has reportedly hired private military contractors in a deal with Erik Prince. “Haitians’ frustration over the failure of international allies and the United Nations to effectively respond to the collapse of their state is understandable. But the contracting of mercenaries is—at best—risky for Haiti,” writes Christopher Sabatini in Foreign Policy.
Honduras
Despite President Xiomara Castro’s promises of agrarian reform and a U.N.-backed Truth Commission, ongoing violence, political obstacles, and entrenched elite interests continue to undermine justice and land redistribution efforts in Honduras’s Bajo Aguán region as the country heads into new elections - El Faro
Panama
Panamanian protesters and police clashed yesterday as authorities tried to open a highway blocked in an Indigenous community as part of monthlong demonstrations against changes to the country’s social security system, reports the Associated Press.
Paraguay
Paraguay’s ride-share drivers — faced with insecurity and the tribulations of labor informality — have created a flourishing support network amongst themselves. “Drivers also use social media to organise protests and temporary boycotts of the apps,” reports the Paraguay Post.
Argentina
The Buenos Aires Herald delves into the political feud behind former Argentine President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner’s decision to run for a post in September’s provincial elections: “Although it might seem odd for Kirchner to return to the playing field to earn a seemingly minor position, it has an explanation: the results of the Buenos Aires province election are key for the national race, which will decide what Congress will look like for the next two years. In a scenario in which President Javier Milei is trying to use presidential decrees to advance his government’s agenda, this is decisive.”
Guatemala
Guatemala began evacuating some residents from the slopes the Volcano of Fire yesterday after a new eruption spewed hot gas and ash high into the sky, reports the Associated Press.