Ecuador votes runoff on Sunday
April 11, 2025
Ecuadorians head to the polls on Sunday in a runoff election to select their next president. Incumbent Daniel Noboa, a conservative businessman, will face off against Luisa González, protégé of former president Rafael Correa, in a race defined by an ongoing security crisis. Polls, which were notoriously inaccurate in the first round, have put the two at a technical tie.
In February Noboa obtained 44.17 percent and González nearly tied at 43.97%.
The close results have raised concerns about fraud allegations — some raised by the president himself — and an army of 92,000 party observers will monitoring the elections on Sunday. In an unprecedented move, the electoral authority granted a request from Noboa to limit phones in polling stations.
Noboa has sought to maintain his position as a candidate of change, but has been hampered by the ongoing security crisis that has characterized his year and a half in office (he is finishing his predecessor’s term after a snap election in 2023). Noboa has militarized security in response to a rising homicide rate, but has had mixed success. After an initial reduction in homicide rates, January and February were particularly violent.
Cases of human rights violations related to the militarization of internal security have mounted. The case of four Black children kidnapped and killed by a military patrol in December has become emblematic of the costs of the security strategy. Human rights groups have also denounced torture in prisons.
Noboa has emphasized an alliance with the Trump administration, and has sought international military support for his crusade against organized crime. He seeks to reopen a U.S. military base in Ecuador, and has signed an agreement with Erik Prince, founder of Blackwater for security support.
González has promised to also maintain militarization of internal security, but has also proposed social programing and reinstating the ministries of justice and security coordination.
Leonidas Iza, an Indigenous activist, obtained 5,25% in the first round, and has endorsed González, as has the powerful CONAIE Indigenous confederation. However, the Indigenous vote could be divided, as some groups have supported Noboa and have historically had a negative relationship with Correa.
(CNN, InSight Crime, El País, International Crisis Group)
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