Ecuador votes on Sunday
Oct. 13, 2023
Ecuadoreans head to the polls on Sunday in a runoff vote to select the country’s next president. Establishment politician Luisa González faces off against businessman Daniel Noboa, in a campaign that has been dominated by escalating violence related to criminal cartels.
Candidate Fernando Villavicencio was assassinated in August leaving a campaign rally ahead of the first round, and last week seven Colombian suspects in that case killed in Ecuadorean prisons.
González is the protegeé of former President Rafael Correa. Noboa is the 35-year-old, Harvard-educated son of one of Ecuador’s richest men.
González has promised social spending to stimulate the economy and increase financing for public health and education. Noboa has positioned himself as “the employment president,” and has promised to attract international investment and trade and cut taxes.
Opinion polls predict a close race, with a high percentage of undecided voters. Voting is compulsory for 13.4 million eligible voters in the country of 16.9 million.
Whoever wins will govern for just 16 months, finishing the term President Guillermo Lasso cut short with unprecedented snap elections this year, in response to impeachment efforts from lawmakers.
The country's murder rate quadrupled in the four years to 2022, and some 3,600 Ecuadorans have been murdered so far this year, according to the Ecuadoran Organized Crime Observatory.
(AFP, New York Times, Reuters, Americas Quarterly)
Guatemala
Guatemalan President Alejandro Giammattei met with Indigenous leaders yesterday, amid ongoing protests and blockades around the country in defense of president-elect Bernardo Arévalo and calling for the resignation of attorney general Consuelo Porras. Giammattei said he cannot oust Porras, and Indigenous leaders said the protests would continue, reports Prensa Libre. (See yesterday’s post.)
Guatemala’s “12-day-long —and counting— national strike and blockade, led by the 48 Cantons of Totonicapán and other ancestral authorities, has proved the crucial political role that Indigenous movements play in Guatemala nowadays, and that Bernardo Arévalo’s victory is just part of a broader social transformation in play,” according to El Faro English. (See yesterday’s post.)
Álvaro Pop, former chairman of the United Nations Permanent Forum on Indigenous Issues, said that what is happening now in Guatemala is the end of a cycle in which the government has tried to eliminate or transform the protest, reports the Associated Press.
Guatemala’s Catholic bishops are on the side of pro-democracy protesters, Cardinal Álvaro Ramazzini told El Faro English in an interview. “I would hope that the attorney general resigns. That is my wish, but I’m not sure to what extent she has the human sensitivity to realize that large majorities of the population do not want her to continue in her role.”
Regional Relations
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva appealed to his Israeli counterpart for the establishment of a humanitarian corridor to enable people in the Gaza Strip to flee to Egypt. Brazil holds the rotating presidency of the United Nations Security Council, and called a meeting for today, reports AFP.
The U.S. criticized Colombian President Gustavo Petro’s remarks comparing Israel to Nazism and called on him to condemn Hamas, reports Reuters. (See Tuesday’s post.)
Chilean President Gabriel Boric is set to meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing on Sunday, his first visit since his election in 2021. (South China Morning Post)
El Salvador
Dozens of relatives of prisoners jailed in El Salvador during a state of emergency called the country’s Supreme Court to rule unconstitutional upcoming "mass trials" of suspected gang members, reports Reuters.
Venezuela
News of negotiations between Venezuela and the US has raised hopes for next year’s scheduled election — “still, considering recent history, skepticism abounds among the international community that the authoritarian government would allow an opposition candidate to win the election and take office,” writes Mark Feierstein in Americas Quarterly. (See yesterday’s post.)
Venezuela is awash in counterfeit U.S. dollars, reports InSight Crime.
Argentina
Argentina’s libertarian presidential candidate Javier Milei is leading in polls ahead of Oct. 22’s presidential elections. Three polls put Economy Minister Sergio Massa in second place and conservative opposition candidate Patricia Bullrich in third, reports Reuters.
Can Javier Milei dollarize Argentina? — Latin America Risk Report analyzes.
Colombia
InSight Crime analyzes the Colombian Petro administration’s “Total Peace” efforts in the port city of Buenaventura.
Brazil
Brazil’s new $174 million national security program to counter organized crime amid a spike in violence rehashes many previously ineffective strategies, according to InSight Crime.
Peru
A group of Peruvian lawmakers presented an impeachment motion against President Dina Boluarte, accusing her of violating the Constitution by traveling abroad without having vice presidents in place, reports EFE.
Peru’s Cordillera Blanca ”is considered a “ground zero” of climate breakdown as communities within it contend with a fearsome range of threats, from unprecedented, chaotic weather to surges in crop-destroying pests, blows to tourism reliant on fast-disappearing glaciers, and escalating conflicts over water,” reports the Guardian.
Regional
Central America’s Dry Corridor is a region that has suffered a series of debilitating droughts and storms over the past decade, weather extremes are linked to climate change that have hit subsistence farmers hard. Climate change is a growing factor pushing people in the region to migrate, reports Reuters.
“While krill fishing is banned in U.S. waters due to concerns it could impact whales, seals and other animals that feed on the shrimp-like creatures, it’s been taking place for decades in Antarctica, where krill are most abundant.” Calls from scientists to regulate the industry are “mired in geopolitical wrangling as Russia and China look to quickly expand the catch,” reports the Associated Press.
“Ticket prices for national team games across Latin America do not reflect the region’s economic reality, with average tickets costing at least ⅓ of an average local salary, if not more,” notes Arianna Kohan in this week’s Argentina Politics Update.
I wanted to share a new project I’m participating in — though it’s not related to Latin America: The Ideas Letter, a publication that gathers articles, essays, and criticism “that will challenge you to think.”