Ecuador heads to runoff
Feb. 10, 2025
Ecuador’s presidential election is headed for an April runoff, after leftist candidate Luisa González nearly tied with incumbent Daniel Noboa, in a race that was closer than polls predicted. Noboa, who is seeking reelection after winning a snap election a year and a half ago, obtained 44.3% in yesterday’s election, while González, a prótegée of former president Rafael Correa, got 43.9%. (CNE)
Noboa stayed home last night, while González celebrated with supporters. She also nodded to leftist opponents, specifically Indigenous activist Leonidas Iza, who obtained 5% and whose voters will be relevant in the second-round. (El País)
In a speech to her cheering supporters, González said her campaign had captured popular sentiment: “We do not want a state of war, we want the construction of peace,” she said. (New York Times)
Ecuador is in the midst of a security crisis, and the election was seen by many as a referendum on Noboa's hardline crackdown on crime, as well as the country's stalled economy, reports AFP.
Under Noboa’s presidency, the homicide rate dropped from 46.18 per 100,000 people in 2023 to 38.76 per 100,000 people last year. It nevertheless remains far higher than the 6.85 per 100,000 people in 2019, notes the Associated Press.
Human rights groups believe the aggressive use of the armed forces under an ongoing state of emergency has led to abuses, including the murder of four boys whose charred bodies were recently found near an army base. (See Friday’s post.)
Yet, “historically, sitting Ecuadorian presidents have rarely had a shot at reelection, making Noboa’s first-round election performance noteworthy,” according to Americas Quarterly. “His ability to maintain public support, despite making only modest progress in reducing unprecedented violence and reviving a struggling economy, underscores his appeal as a relatively new political figure.”
Ecuador is also bracing for the return of thousands of migrants who are expected to be deported by the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump – which will also mean a drop in remittances.
Noboa celebrated the seats won by his party in Congress, although neither he nor González will have a majority. (Guardian)
Mexico
Understanding the nature of cartels — more accurately, networks of paramilitary organized crime — in Latin America is crucial in the context of Trump’s order to designate them as foreign terrorist organizations and there is a real possibility of U.S. military action, writes Ioan Grillo, drawing on information from interviews and court cases involving cartel operatives. (CrashOut)
Trump accused Mexico’s government of an “intolerable alliance” with drug cartels, an accusation that continues to rankle, even as the U.S. stepped back from immediately imposing tariffs on Mexican goods. Organized crime exerts significan political power, particularly at the municipal level, but even the notable cases of corruption at all levels of government do not equate an alliance between Mexico’s government and criminals, reports the Guardian.
“Mexican environmental regulators say they have discovered 30,000 tons of improperly stored material with “hazardous characteristics” in the yard of a Mexican plant that is recycling toxic waste shipped from the U.S.,” reports the Guardian.
Regional Relations
Panama broke diplomatic relations with Taiwan in 2017, initiating relations with China, which promised investment and trade. “In the following years, however, U.S. diplomatic efforts and back-channel pressure in effect curtailed growing Chinese influence on the isthmus. Now, Donald Trump’s aggressive rhetoric and maximalist negotiating positions threaten to undermine a hitherto successful strategy,” writes Mat Youkee in the Guardian.
Migration
The U.S. government has provided almost no information about a group of alleged Tren de Aragua migrants deported to the Guantanamo Bay military base last week. Human rights lawyers say the Trump administration is breaking the law by denying them access to legal counsel and holding them in the high-security area of the base that some prisoners have described as a “tomb above ground,” reports the Washington Post.
A document from the Niskanen Center recalled that the “war on terror” facility at Guantánamo once held 780 detainees, but today only 15 remain. Though they can only guess because much data is classified, the Center estimates that these detentions cost U.S. taxpayers as much as $44 million per inmate per year. (via Americas Migration Brief.)
Trump’s decision to cancel temporary protected status (TPS) for hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans "“has ignited fear, confusion and outrage” among Miami’s Venezuelan migrants, many of whom supported Trump, believing he would prioritize removing Nicolás Maduro from power, reports the Washington Post.
CEDA expresses concern that the US foreign aid freeze will leave “internally displaced Ecuadorians and newly arrived Colombian asylum seekers… without critical support,” among other challenges. (Americas Migration Brief)
“A boat carrying 17 migrants heading for the United States sank off Nicaragua, leaving at least five people dead, including two children,” reports AFP. The tragedy reveals that the irregular migration route from Colombia’s San Andrés to Nicaragua en route to the US remains active, says La Prensa. (Americas Migration Brief)
Brazil
A small plane crashed into a busy São Paulo street Friday morning and exploded, killing two people on board and striking a city bus that became engulfed by flames, reports the Washington Post. (See also New York Times.)
Regional
A large, 7.6-magnitude earthquake struck the Caribbean on Saturday evening, prompting a tsunami warning across much of the region, which was later lifted. (New York Times)
Argentina
A small river in greater Buenos Aires was dyed a deep and worrying shade of red last week, believed to be related to a leak of dye from a nearby factory, reports the Guardian. Rivers in the area have a history of contamination problems, notes the New York Times.