Ecuador "at war"
Jan. 11, 2024
Ecuadorean President Daniel Noboa said that his country was “at war” with drug gangs, yesterday. “We are fighting narco-terrorism,” Noboa said in a radio interview on Wednesday, after a series of apparently coordinated attacks by criminal organizations across the country on Tuesday.
Referring to videos showing the apparent murder of prison guards, he said: “They disseminate images to frighten the public and to bring the president of the republic to his knees, and that is not going to happen.”
The armed forces said they had detained 329 people under the new state of emergency, and that five alleged criminals were killed in clashes, reports the Associated Press.
The attacks followed efforts by Noboa to crackdown on criminal groups, in the midst of surging violence. Many experts believe the gangs are rebelling against the new government’s moves to shake up criminal control of prisons, lengthen sentences, and isolate powerful leaders, like two who escaped prison this week.
Noboa announced a referendum last week that would include an expanded role for the military in combating criminal organizations and the construction of new maximum-security prisons. (Guardian) The government’s "Phoenix Plan" for security includes the establishment of a new intelligence unit, tactical weapons for security forces, new high-security prisons and reinforced security at ports and airports, reports Reuters.
More than 130 prison staff are still being held hostage. At least 10 people were been killed, including police officers, in the attacks. (Guardian) A group of assailants attacked a television station during a live broadcast and more than 30 car explosions took place across the country. In Guayaquil four pedestrians were killed by armed men who shot them indiscriminately, according to officials. Prison riots broke out in several institutions. (See yesterday’s post.)
“Videos posted on social media showed a gruesome series of other attacks including car bombs, the murder of police officers in the street, the apparent lynching of prison guards and attempted takeovers of hospitals and a university in Guayaquil,” reports the Guardian.
They “showed gangs operating well outside their usual fiefdoms, banding together, and turning on national institutions and civilians to try to force political leaders to back off. This strategic brutality, which has been described as “violent lobbying”, has been used elsewhere in Latin America, but is new to Ecuador. For many, it feels as if the fate of the country itself is at stake,” argues a Guardian editorial.
“Noboa’s resolve was welcome to many Ecuadorians, who have watched their nation descend into chaos,” reports the Associated Press.
Indeed, a silver lining might be “a rare political consensus supporting Noboa’s tough stance” in an otherwise polarized country, writes Sebastián Hurtado in Americas Quarterly. “Endorsements have come from diverse political and civil society groups, including former President Rafael Correa and Indigenous leader Leonidas Iza. This consensus provides Noboa with a political opportunity for aggressive security and other reforms, including his plans to hold a referendum on the extradition and asset seizure of criminals.”
But “the government’s rapid militarization of the conflict lacks an exit strategy,” and the Noboa administration “has given no indication of a long-term plan,” according to InSight Crime.
“As violence in the country increases, the Ecuadorian government has shown it is not prepared to face a criminal threat of this scale,” reports InSight Crime in a separate piece.
“Extreme policies might seem like the logical consequence we’ve seen,” Ivan Briscoe, Latin America and the Caribbean director for the International Crisis Group, told the Associated Press. But “if you move to a security policy which is purely based on repression and killing, you’re going to enter an extremely violent spiral.”
Noboa’s declaration, Tuesday, that the country is in a state of internal armed conflict, is unprecedented in Ecuador, and rare in the region, reports the Washington Post. The president granted the military sweeping powers to combat 22 criminal gangs he defined as “terrorists.”
The move is legally questionable and “probably a recipe for disaster,” according to Juan Pappier, deputy Americas director for Human Rights Watch. “Under international law, a declaration of armed conflict requires two things: a certain level of hostility or fighting from an armed group; and a level of organization from that group, such as a chain of command and a headquarters. Ecuador’s government, Pappier argued, has not provided evidence fulfilling the two requirements, and in fact seems to “ignore” them,” reports the Washington Post.
Argentina and the IMF forever
The IMF threw a lifeline and unequivocal support to Argentine President Javier Milei with a new agreement yesterday to disburse $4.7 billion to Argentina despite the country’s failure to meet the terms of its $43 billion loan in recent months.
The money includes a $3.3 billion tranche of the loan that had been delayed by Argentina’s electoral processes, and another $1.4 billion that the IMF agreed to disburse ahead of schedule,” reports the Financial Times. The money will be used to pay down previous IMF debts due at the end of the month and beyond, reports Bloomberg.
(See also Reuters.)
The IMF celebrated in a statement that “the new administration is already implementing an ambitious stabilization plan, anchored on a large upfront fiscal consolidation, along with actions to rebuild reserves, correct relative price misalignments, strengthen the central bank’s balance sheet, and create a simpler, rules-based, and market-oriented economy.” (El País)
The news comes as Argentina's markets" “are now giving the libertarian leader a dose of reality, with bond prices slipping, the peso weakening again and investors wary of the government's new debt auctions,” reports Reuters.
More Argentina
Milei’s rush to radically reform Argentina via presidential decree and a massive, omnibus law are due to a “maximalist” strategy that aims to leverage his current popularity, assuming it will wane moving forward as devaluation pushes up already crushing inflation, and ahead of drastic increases in previously subsidized public services, explains Brian Winter in Americas Quarterly.
Regional
“In Latin America’s 2024 electoral super-cycle, voters seem likely to reward leaders who address their most fundamental needs—in some cases regardless of whether they value democracy, clean government or the rule of law,” writes Tamara Taraciuk Broner in Americas Quarterly. Indeed, the anti-incumbent trend of recent years could shift “thanks to leaders who have enjoyed some measure of success—even if it has come at a cost.”
Regional Relations
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva announced his country’s support for South Africa’s case against Israel in the International Court of Justice alleging genocide against the Palestinians in Gaza. Colombia’s foreign ministry wrote in a statement that “South Africa’s lawsuit is a brave step in the right direction.” (People’s Dispatch)
Lula discussed a potential trade deal between Japan and Mercosur with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. (Reuters)
Guatemala
Bernardo Arévalo, a quiet academic and political outsider, is set to assume Guatemala’s presidency on Sunday, despite concerted efforts from the country’s corrupt political elite. “What makes the anti-corruption campaigner’s rise so remarkable is that it came against the backdrop of democratic backsliding in the country,” reports the Guardian.
Arévalo announced a cabinet with gender parity earlier this week, a first for Guatemala, but sparked criticism from supporters who said it was lacking in Indigenous representation in a country where 40 percent of people identify as Mayan. “The early controversy shows how the high expectations for the “new democratic springtime” Arévalo has promised are a double-edged sword. As president, he may find it harder to navigate the public debate if he is perceived to be trying —like he did during the campaign, and transition— to please all corners of a frustrated and polarized society,” reports El Faro.
Chile
In a context of intense political polarization, Chile’s path to constitutional reform would be best served by a citizen’s assembly selected through sortition, a random lottery, argues Nathan Gardels in Noema. “The Chilean experience holds lessons for addressing the legitimacy crisis across all democracies today. In a starkly polarized environment, elections where partisans vie for power by any means necessary only deepen divisions.”