Guatemala’s anti-corruption, outsider president-elect Bernardo Arévalo is set to take office on Jan. 14. The transfer of power since his August electoral victory has “become and obstacle course,” reports El País. While analysts “believe that in the coming days there may still be new attempts to overthrow Arévalo’s party through judicial means, but they also consider that there is little chance of them succeeding.”
In the meantime, Arévalo told the Associated Press that he will continue to challenge politically motivated legal persecution against him and the Movimiento Semilla party,
Arévalo’s election is a victory for Guatemalan democracy: “He defeated corrupt political networks with the ability to alter election results, ban candidates, and extract millions in state resources, a power that even the region’s most powerful criminal groups would envy,” reports InSight Crime. “Yet the 2023 election has also proven to be the catalyst of institutional meltdown, exposing the deep criminality at the heart of the country’s political system. This will be difficult to overcome even if Arévalo takes office on January 14.”
More Guatemala
Guatemala’s Supreme Court denied two protection requests against the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) filed last week. (Prensa Libre)
Dozens of Indigenous people in Guatemala completed three months of uninterrupted sit-in at the headquarters of the Attorney General’s Office to demand the resignation of its head, Consuelo Porras, yesterday. (EFE)
Last week, Guatemala's Supreme Court ordered the release of former anti-corruption prosecutor Virginia Laparra, who was sentenced in December 2022 to four years in prison for abuse of authority in a trial criticized by the international community, reports AFP.
Cuba
Raúl Castro reappeared in public to celebrate the sixty-fifth anniversary of the Cuban Revolution on Monday. The 92-year-old former president called for unity within the Communist Party and expressed support for the new generation of leadership, headed by President Miguel Díaz-Canel, whose administration is battling a deep-seated economic crisis. (El País)
The mood in Havana “is one of desperation. The economy is spiraling downward, and US policy is exacerbating the growing humanitarian crisis,” writes William LeoGrande in The Nation.
Brazil
A year into Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s third presidency, “main achievement is that the Brazilian political debate, once again, revolves around the major socioeconomic problems in the country and the difficulties of obtaining enough support to pass laws,” reports El País.
Lula’s economic results have been far better than expected, but political polarization has hindered Brazil’s leader from reaping the full dividends, reports the Associated Press.
Local elections later this year will be a test of strength between Lula and former President Jair Bolsonaro, reports El País.
Chile
Chile kicked off 2024 with a wave of homicides — nine on Christmas and six on New Years — that reflects a growing security crisis that has the Boric administration under pressure, reports El País.
Argentina
Argentina and the International Monetary Fund are close to an agreement on a review of its $44 billion loan program, reports Reuters. That would put the country on track to unlock the next tranche of funding.
An IMF delegation is scheduled to arrive in Buenos Aires tomorrow, reports Bloomberg. (See yesterday’s post and Dec. 22’s.)
Regional Relations
Washington’s relative silence regarding El Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele’s undermining of democratic institutions is related to the U.S. Biden administration’s wariness of confronting a such a popular leader, as well as concerns about Chinese influence in the region and migration issues, according to Héctor Silva Ávalos in Prensa Comunitaria.
Nexos delves into the origins and consequences of NAFTA at 30 in a special issue that includes an “oral history” of the free trade agreement that “invented” North America.
The agreement transformed Mexico profoundly, with mixed results, writes Héctor Aguilar Camín, comparing it to the Revolution. “Regional integration opened us to the world, modernized our economy and brought prosperity to many Mexicans. But it also deepened inequalities, forced millions to migrate in search of opportunities, and wreaked havoc on entire productive sectors and the ways of life of some of the most vulnerable Mexicans.” (Nexos)
Mexico
Mexican labor activists are fighting for a five-day-workweek in a country where millions of working class people are on duty six days a week. (Washington Post)
Migration
Mexican authorities confirmed the kidnapping of 31 migrants — mostly Venezuelan — traveling by bus in Tamaulipas state. (EFE, Reuters)
A record 520,000 migrants crossed the treacherous jungle between Colombia and Panama known as the Darien Gap in 2023, more than double the number reported the year before, reports Reuters.
Venezuela
Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro’s rock-bottom popularity ratings — below 20% — has fueled speculation that Chavismo could field an alternative candidate in this year’s presidential elections, reports El País.
Dominican Republic
Elected on an anti-corruption platform, Dominican Republic President Luis Abinader is a rare exception to the regional anti-incumbent trend, reports Americas Quarterly.
Regional
Latin America’s anti-incumbent trend could “hit a brick wall” this year, with the governing party favored to win in four of the six Latin American elections in 2024. It’s a blip, argues James Bosworth in World Politics Review. “By no means is the region now characterized by strong presidents who can easily win reelection. To the contrary, a quick glance at approval ratings around the hemisphere shows that nearly every current national leader is heavily disliked and likely to lose the next election campaign.”
Several anti-semitic incidents in the region in recent months “are part of a growing pattern of antisemitic activity across Latin America that is alarming U.S. officials, who toured the region in early December to meet with local officials and members of the Jewish community to discuss a threat that has markedly increased since Hamas’ brutal attacks on Israelis on Oct. 7,” reports the Miami Herald.
Organized crime is responsible for at least half of the homicides in Latin America and the Caribbean, according to a the latest UNODC’s Global Study on Homicide, which included a section examining how organized crime drives violence in Latin America and the Caribbean. (Insight Crime)
Uruguay succeeded in a rapid shift to green energy in just 15 years, the country now produces up to 98% of its electricity from renewables, reports the Guardian.
Colombia
Álvaro Córdoba, brother of a powerful senator in Colombia, pleaded guilty in the U.S. to federal narcotics charges, reports the Associated Press.
Culture Corner
Rio de Janeiro’s favela funk “bailes are far more than the ear-shattering raves vilified by the authorities,” according to the Guardian.
Ana Ofelia Murguía, a Mexican actress whose “60-year career in film, television and theater “marked an entire era” and made her one of Mexico’s most acclaimed actresses,” died Dec. 31 at 90, reports the New York Times. (Washington Post, Guardian)
Barranquilla unveiled a 6.5 meter tribute to the Colombian city’s most famous cultural export: Shakira. (Guardian, New York Times)