China spy facility report questioned
June 9, 2023
China, Cuba and the U.S. all cast doubt on a media report alleging that Cuba will permit China to construct an electronic surveillance facility on the island — a strategic spot that would permit spying on the U.S. (See yesterday’s briefs.)
U.S. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said reports of an agreement between the two countries were "not accurate." (CBS, Reuters, Reuters)
The Chinese facility in Cuba could be capable of spying on the United States by intercepting electronic signals from nearby U.S. military and commercial facilities, reports the New York Times, citing three U.S. officials familiar with the agreement.
China would pay Cuba "several billion dollars" to allow the eavesdropping station, according to the Wall Street Journal, which broke the story yesterday.
MORENA to announced nomination process
Mexico’s ruling MORENA party is expected to announce a selection process for its 2024 presidential nominee on Sunday. MORENA is expected to pick a candidate as soon as September. (EFE)
President Andrés Manuel López Obrador cannot run for reelection, and the party candidate is likely to win the election.
The main contenders for the ruling party are Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard, Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum, and Interior Minister Adán Augusto López Hernández. Sniping between rival camps has started to undermine the unity AMLO tries to project for the movement, reports Reuters.
Ebrard has expressed concerns that rivals such as Sheinbaum with domestic political mandates have an advantage, and that all contenders should therefore give up their office. He announced his resignation this week, effective June 12. (See Wednesday’s briefs.)
AMLO suggested that other candidates will follow suit.
Some media reports indicate AMLO laid out a plan, this week, in which top runners-up in presidential primaries would be required to serve in senior positions in a potential next Morena government—”a sort of protection clause against party infighting,” according to the Latin America Brief.
More Mexico
MORENA’s victory in Edomex has raised concerns about the ruling party’s hegemony. MORENA has replaced the former single-party PRI, which cannot serve as a credible democratic opposition to AMLO, argues the Latin America Risk Report. (See Monday’s post.)
Soldiers wanted in the killing of five civilians in Mexico last month were arrested this week. (CBS)
Regional
The “Bukele Model” of a state of exception to control criminal gangs — at a high human rights cost — has captured the region’s attention. While states of exception can be a valid tool, “by no means do these regimes represent a silver bullet for public safety,” write Ryan C. Berg and Henry Ziemer for the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Emergencies can rarely be planned for; however, a key to preventing perpetual states of exception is the presence of a transparent strategy that identifies what comes after the present suspension of rights.”
El Salvador
Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele’s pledge to launch a war on corruption is laughable in a country that lacks judicial independence, institutionality and rule of law, argues El Faro’s editorial board.
Brazil
Brazil’s government is seeking work arounds to limitations placed by lawmakers on the Environmental Ministry. The new plan to combat illegal deforestation announced this week can be carried out with the ministry’s current powers, notes the Latin America Brief.
“Broken Spectre,” an epic film by Robert Mosse testifies to the calamitous destruction of the Amazon rainforest: the deliberate burning, the tree-felling, the industrial-scale agriculture, the mineral extraction and the displacement of Indigenous peoples, reports the New York Times.
Manufacturing, once 36% of Brazil’s gross domestic product in 1985, fell to just 13% in 2022, the worst example of “premature deindustrialization” in the world, reports the Wall Street Journal.
Ecuador
Crime — and public officials’ incapacity to stop it — tops Ecuadorian voters’ concerns, far beyond the political struggles that pushed President Guillermo Lasso to dissolve Congress and call snap elections for August. The country’s transformation into an organized crime hub is partly the result of bad luck, adn partly of bad policy, writes Will Freeman in World Politics Review.
Lasso’s invocation of “muerte cruzada” in May did not plunge the country into a constitutional crisis — instead it ”acted as a constitutional release valve, helping dissipate popular discontent and providing a democratic exit for an unpopular president,” argues John Polga-Hecimovich in Global Americans.
Argentina
Argentine libertarian presidential candidate Javier Milei is polling well, fanning speculation over whether the country will be the next in the region to elect a fire-brand outsider with a poor governability forecast. “The five months left before the October 22 first round represent an eternity in Argentine politics, particularly given the frail economic situation,” according to Ignacio Labaqui. “But the current scenario of economic decay benefits Milei’s attacks on the political establishment and adds to the mood of disenchantment that prevails among voters,” he writes in Americas Quarterly.
One of Milei’s proposals is for Argentina to adopt the U.S. dollar as legal currency (and blow up the Central Bank). But the details of the plan are unconvincing for most economists, reports Bloomberg.
Colombia
The Colombian government and ELN guerrilla group postponed by a day the anticipated signing of a temporary ceasefire to conclude a third round of peace talks in Havana. (AFP, see yesterday’s briefs.)
Esneda Saavedra Restrepo, the first female governor of the Yukpa indigenous people in Colombia, survived an attack by armed men linked to mining corporations and is now seeking justice for her people. (Novara Media)
Peru
A group of indigenous protesters in Peru's remote Amazon region attacked two oil tankers with gasoline bombs, reports Reuters.
Regional Relations
The U.S. will invest in a criminal investigative unit in collaboration with the Haitian national police, part of more than $100 million in commitments the Biden administration is making in the Caribbean in the areas of climate change, clean energy and security, reports the Miami Herald. (See yesterday’s briefs.)