Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele, one of the most popular leaders in the world, is expected to win reelection by a landslide on Sunday, despite a constitutional ban on immediate reelection in El Salvador. (Reuters, AFP)
Bukele is supported by 70-90 percent of the population, according to diverse polls. (Associated Press) His Nuevas Ideas is expected to dominate the National Assembly with 57 of the 60 seats, further cementing his control over the legislative branch. (Axios)
“He is expected to win reelection by resounding numbers, but turnout matters: The 51.9 percent participation rate in 2019 was an asterisk in his victory, when he won 53 percent outright,” according to investigative news outlet El Faro. “This time, any margin could seem small for a president who controls all state institutions and has boasted for five years of an approval rating of over 90 percent.”
“Bukele is competing against himself. Opposition parties —old and new alike— have been incapable of biting into his popularity. Negotiations last year for a united ballot failed, similar to the fracture in 2021 in Nicaragua of the two opposition coalitions.”
Bukele’s crackdown on criminal gangs has been hugely controversial — it is based on an ongoing state of exception that suspends civil liberties and there have been accusations of systematic human rights violations — but also wildly popular among citizens freed from widespread gang territorial control. (New York Times)
Though Bukele’s popularity is enough to ensure reelection, nonetheless, the vote is not considered free and fair — starting with the judicial ruling permitting reelection by a Bukele appointed court. “Overall, there is a framework of irregularities that calls into question the legitimacy of the result, such as the reduction in the number of seats and mayoralties and the change in the recount system just a few months before the election. This is what in English is called gerrymandering,” WOLA’s Carolina Sandoval told El Faro.
“To these people who say democracy is being dismantled, my answer is yes — we are not dismantling it, we are eliminating it, we are replacing it with something new,” Félix Ulloa, who is running for re-election as vice president alongside Bukele, told the New York Times.
More El Salvador
Official documents show that 27 public officials have received more than $4.9 million in loans from El Salvador’s state-owned bank. Among the borrowers are 12 Nuevas Ideas deputies seeking re-election and three of Bukele’s cousins, according to an investigation by Focos.
Before Bukele dismantled an internationally backed anti-impunity commission, the CICIES had accused allies of participating in a corruption scheme favoring companies associated with public officials, reports Revista Factum, based on the previously unpublished accusations.
The Bukeke administration was in negotiations to pay one million U.S. dollars to the Mexican Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) in exchange for abducting a gang leader illegally released from jail two years ago “and turning him over —preferably alive— at a secret location,” according to an investigation by El Faro based on audio recordings, messages, and testimony.
Regional
“Bukele’s almost certain victory will further cement his grip on power as his tough tactics ripple out from this small Central American nation to other places with their own security crises like Ecuador, Honduras and the Dominican Republic. That worries rights advocates across the region,” reports the Associated Press.
Regional Relations
“A wave of repression by President Nicolás Maduro’s administration in Venezuela has paralyzed opposition candidates in the lead-up to the 2024 presidential elections,” reports InSight Crime. (See Wednesday’s post.)
“The last few years have shown the limits of external actors, especially the United States, in guaranteeing a fair democratic playing field in Venezuela. But foreign governments do have some power to shape the voting landscape—as they did in Guatemala’s elections last year—and lend support to democratic outcomes as long as internal pro-democracy forces are unified and organized,” argues Catherine Osborn in the Latin America Brief.
Countries in Latin America voiced condemnation of Venezuela’s banning of opposition leader María Corina Machado’s candidacy, last week. (Wilson Center)
Guatemala
Guatemalan President Bernardo Arévalo plans to appeal to citizens to help him overcome the country’s entrenched corrupt elite and achieve change, given that his political party is suspended, he has little support in Congress and a hostile attorney general remains in position. “We are clear that in the current context, we depend on society and convincing them that together we begin to row,” Arévalo told The Associated Press
Argentina
Argentina’s lower chamber of Congress is expected to vote on President Javier Milei’s “omnibus” bill of reforms today — or what’s left of it — after three days of intense debate. In an effort to ensure passage, the government whittled down the original 664 articles to less than 300. (Corta)
Yesterday opposition lawmakers left the chamber to join protesters outside of Congress, as security forces fired rubber bullets and tear gas at demonstrators in order to disperse them. (Al Jazeera, AFP, Página 12)
“Argentina’s inflation surge may prove less transitory—to use a word that still haunts central bankers everywhere—than many assume,” warns Eduardo Levy-Yeyati in Americas Quarterly. “The opening weeks of President Javier Milei’s government have been defined by talk of sacrifice, of enduring short-term pain in order to achieve the medium-term payoff of price stability, a necessary condition for a healthier economy. But there are some signs that the pain may be more acute, and longer-lasting, when it comes to prices.”
Ecuador
Ecuadorean President Daniel Noboa “has overseen a firm but calibrated response, jailing hundreds of suspected gang leaders and reestablishing some control of prisons and other institutions while also, in the words of one regional official, “not going full Bukele” – not casting aside the constitution or human rights in the manner of El Salvador’s hard-line leader,” writes Brian Winter in Americas Quarterly.
A U.S. military aid package for Ecuador is being compared to Plan Colombia, but while the new cooperation agreement contains some elements in common “it is fundamentally different in size, scope, and commitment,” reports InSight Crime. “The cooperation plan includes increases in military-to-military cooperation, intelligence sharing, and training missions – all key characteristics of Plan Colombia. However, there is a significant difference in monetary size. The average annual aid package provided during Plan Colombia was close to $650 million per year, while the proposed aid to Ecuador does not even reach $100 million.”
Ecuadorean journalist María Teresa Escobar analyzes the Noboa administration’s crackdown on criminal groups in the AQ podcast.
Mexico
Mexico’s “presidential campaign is currently Claudia Sheinbaum's race to lose,” argues James Bosworth at Latin America Risk Report.
Regional
There is interest in the Caribbean in Mexico’s lawsuit against U.S. gun manufacturers, which alleges that their negligent business practises contribute to illegal trafficking of guns. (See today’s Just Caribbean Updates.)
Culture
This year, for the first time, one of Rio’s oldest and most successful carnival parade groups has devoted its show to Brazil’s Yanomami Indigenous group — Latin America Brief
How reggaeton became the sound of global pop — Washington Post