Arévalo supported by private sector

Aug. 22, 2023

The landslide victory of anti-corruption presidential candidate Bernardo Arévalo went unchallenged in the first day — “no small feat in an election cycle marked by cascading crises,” notes El Faro English. (See yesterday’s post.)

Nonetheless, Arévalo and his Movimiento Semilla face major obstacles from a coopted justice system — which will likely seek to block him from assuming the presidency. (Prensa Libre) Arévalo’s campaign told El Faro that they expect new legal attacks.

“Organized criminal networks with many millions of dollars at their disposal will not be defeated quietly. It also remains to be seen whether certain economic elites involved in corruption will begin to side with change or try to maintain their illicit activities,” Irma Velásquez Nimatuj told Americas Quarterly.

Arévalo “appears to have secured an early vote of confidence from the private sector and social movements in a bid to recover institutions and public trust,” reports El Faro English. “Moments after the TSE announced the election results, the president of the powerful business lobby CACIF told El Faro that the organized private sector is willing to work with the new government.”

More Guatemala

• Concriterio reports on possible cabinet appointments for the incoming Arévalo government.

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BRICS summit in South Africa

Leaders of the BRICS bloc — composed of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — are meeting this week in South Africa. Expansion of the group, which represents 40 percent of the world’s population and a quarter of the world’s economy, is high on the agenda, but the countries’ conflicting diplomatic priorities are an obstacle, reports the New York Times.

At least 22 countrys have applied for membership — including Argentina, Mexico, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Nigeria — and more have enquired informally. The reasons for desiring entry range from economic to diplomatic, and depending on who gets in, the bloc could become more of an anti-Western coalition. (CNN)

“This raises the prospect of a new and re-energised economic and political actor against the US and its allies in world affairs,” reports the Guardian.

The group’s focus includes economic cooperation and increasing multilateral trade and development, reports Reuters. However, the bloc’s shared interests have always been ill-defined, notes the Washington Post.

Nonetheless, some analysts say this summit — which will be accompanied by more than 40 leaders from emerging economies — could make substantial headway in making BRICS a more effective organization, reports Al Jazeera.

The BRICS New Development Bank President Dilma Rousseff said the institution will begin to lend in member state currencies — “as part of a plan to reduce reliance on the dollar and promote a more multipolar international financial system,” reports the Financial Times.

Rouseff also told FT that the NDB was considering applications for membership from about 15 countries and was likely to approve the admission of four or five. Diversifying the bank’s geographic representation is a priority, she said. (Financial Times)

Haiti

• A Kenyan delegation met with leaders of Haiti's national police yesterday, as it assesses leading a possible United Nations-backed multinational security force to help police fight escalating gang warfare, reports Reuters.

• Before arriving in Haiti on Sunday, the Kenyan delegation met with countries and groups in New York that are trying to decide how best to help Haiti, reports the Associated Press.

• The visit comes in the midst of “another wave of brutal gang violence following a rise in vigilante justice,” reports the Miami Herald. Experts say the possibility of external intervention is one of many factors feeding into the current surge in violence.

Regional Relations

• A delegation of U.S. progressive Democrat lawmakers is wrapping up a trip to Brazil, Chile and Colombia. The group met with Colombian President Gustavo Petro and Vice President Francia Márquez, yesterday. (Silla Vacía)

• Petro celebrated the meeting as the start of a “strategic alliance,” reports El País.

• The goal of the trip was to “start to change … the relationships between the United States and Chile and the region, Latin America as a whole,” Ocasio-Cortez said in Chile. (Associated Press)

• In Chile the group, which is led by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, met with President Gabriel Boric, former President Michelle Bachelet, and chief of staff Camilla Vallejos. They emphasized the United States’ obligation to disclose information regarding its involvement in the 1973 coup against Salvador Allende, reports El País.

• Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel plans to travel to New York for the United Nations General Assembly in September, reports the Miami Herald.

• Brazil intends to restore trade and political ties with Cuba, said Celso Amorim, a top foreign policy aide to Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, after meeting with Díaz-Canel in Havana on Friday. (Reuters)

• The Central American Parliament voted to expel Taiwan after more than two decades as a permanent observer and replace it with China. It is part of a growing regional shift towards China notes Reuters: Nicaragua, El Salvador, Honduras, Panama and the Dominican Republic have all broken off diplomatic relations with Taiwan in recent years.

Honduras

• The June prison massacre in Honduras’ Penitenciaría Nacional Femenina de Adaptación Social was the deadliest ever at a female penitentiary in Latin America — 46 people were killed in a clash between rival gangs. For the inmates, “massacre was not entirely unexpected. For months, they had reported increasing tension between gangs,” reports InSight Crime.

Chile

• Chileans access to abortion — a hard-won right available only under limited circumstances — is at risk under a constitutional drafting process controlled by a right-wing commission, reports the Guardian.

Brazil

• Maria Bernadete Pacífico, a community and religious leader in the Pitanga dos Palmares quilombo in Bahia, was killed last week. The assassination spurred calls for justice from human rights organizations who said government protection measures were insufficient, reports the Guardian.

• Eight years after the Mariana mine tailings dam disaster, the poisoning of the Doce River is affecting Indigenous communities who are seeing an increase in illnesses barely heard of before, reports the Guardian.

Venezuela

• Venezuela’s judiciary issued a new arrest warrant against former Caracas mayor Antonio Ledezma, and will field a new extradition request to Spain, where the opposition leader has been in exile since 2017. Yesterday Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro denounced a “coup attempt” following statements by Ledezma urging “civil disobedience.” (EFE)

Mexico

• Juan Carlos Tercero, a Mexican expert in underwater forensics who helped families seeking their missing loved ones, appears to have become a victim of very disappearance epidemic he sought to tackle, reports the Guardian.

Migration

• A new Oxfam report finds that “Mexico's migration policies, focused on the repression, containment and deportation of migrant individuals, have influenced the orientation of public discourse towards narratives of a racist, classist and xenophobic nature,” reports EFE. (Via Americas Migration Brief)

Ecuador

• Ecuador bonds surged yesterday, in reaction to the potential election of a market-friendly president in the October runoff, reports Bloomberg. (See yesterday’s post.)

• Violence in Ecuador has put a controversial Correa gang-legalization policy back in the limelight, but has incorrectly conflated organized criminal groups with street gangs, reports InSight Crime.

• “Not long ago, Ecuador was considered one of the safest countries in Latin America … at least part of this success was attributed to the country’s innovative approach to handling street gangs: Instead of mass incarceration, the government negotiated with groups … and recognized them as legitimate social organizations.” (InSight Crime)