The U.S. temporary license that eased oil sanctions against Venezuela is set to expire tomorrow. Barring last minute concessions from Venezuela’s government, the U.S. will likely reimpose sanctions, given Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s failure to uphold his commitment to free and fair elections. (Bloomberg, Reuters, Reuters, El País)
But domestic politics are muddling the U.S. Biden administration’s decision, reports the Miami Herald. “U.S. officials are struggling to make a decision because they are concerned that immigration and domestic oil prices could be affected as the U.S. heads toward the presidential election in November.”
The situation is “a stark reminder that the sweeping power of U.S. sanctions can do great harm but rarely delivers the political results that American officials seek,” writes Farah Stockman in a New York Times op-ed.
Haiti
A group of Haitian journalists, joined by Reporters without Borders, called on the international community and the country’s newly created transitional presidential council to help protect Haitian journalists amid the crisis that’s forcing many to either practice self-censorship, abandon the profession or flee the country, reports the Miami Herald. A number of journalists have been injured while attempting to report on the armed clashes between the various gangs and the police.
An official decree named the members of Haiti's transitional ruling council yesterday, a further step toward installing the long-delayed body aimed at reining in anarchy in Haiti, reports AFP. (See Monday’s post.)
Mexico
Mexican presidential candidate Claudia Sheinbaum is likely to win the June election “for a simple reason: she has the blessing of the current president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, or AMLO,” writes Nicolás Medina Mora in the New York Review of Books. Despite disillusion with AMLO’s government, “the president is poised to finish the single six-year term allowed by the Mexican Constitution with high approval ratings; the figures range from 50 to 70 percent.
His endorsement amounts to a coronation.”
AMLO will cast a long shadow over the hypothetical Sheinbaum presidency, argues James Bosworth at Latin America Risk Report. “It's Sheinbaum's presidency, but AMLO's party. His influence over the Congress, the governorships, and the state legislatures controlled by Morena cannot be understated.”
“Mexico’s presidential candidates have laid out contrasting visions for energy ahead of the election in June as the manufacturing nation faces an urgent need for investment in its power grid and a turnaround at its indebted national oil company,” reports the Financial Times.
Earlier this week Sheinbaum outlined a plan to invest $13.57 billion in new energy generation projects through 2030, a program that would increase wind and solar power generation and would modernize five hydroelectric plants. It would be a significant shift from AMLO’s oil-centered energy policies, reports Reuters.
Colombia
A leader of Colombia’s Estado Mayor Central guerrilla group pulled out of peace negotiations, part of an internal split that threatens the Petro administration’s efforts at “total peace,” reports Reuters.
Jacobin reports on Colombian President Gustavo Petro’s efforts to rein in the country’s infamous riot police, the ESMAD.
Regional Relations
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is in Bogotá to inaugurate a book fair and meet with his Colombian counterpart, Gustavo Petro. (EFE)
Venezuela’s elections are high on the bilateral agenda, reports El País.
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro ordered the closure of his country’s embassy and consulates in Ecuador yesterday in solidarity with Mexico, after the raid by Ecuadorian authorities on the Mexican Embassy in Quito earlier this month. (Associated Press)
Honduras announced yesterday that it is recalling its senior diplomat in Ecuador for the same reason, reports Reuters.
Ecuador
“Ecuador’s judiciary is struggling to stop well-connected criminals from turning legal safeguards meant to protect civil rights into loopholes for escaping justice,” reports InSight Crime, in an interview with Pablo Punín, a constitutional expert and advisor to Ecuador’s Constitutional Court.
The story of Ecuador’s deadliest prison riot in 2021, through the eyes of an inmate who survived — Washington Post
“Ecuador has begun to ration electricity in the country’s main cities as a drought linked to the El Niño weather pattern depletes reservoirs and limits output at hydroelectric plants that produce about 75% of the nation’s power,” reports the Associated Press.
Argentina
The IMF lauded the Argentine Milei administration’s harsh austerity measures, saying “progress so far has been really impressive.” According to the latest IMF numbers Argentina’s inflation rate this year will be 149.4% and its GDP will drop 2.8%. (Buenos Aires Herald) Nonetheless, IMF authorities say Argentina must do more, reports EFE.
Regional
Argentine startup Nippy offers gig workers pitstops for bathrooms and phone charging — in exchange for their data it sells to financial, insurance, and telecommunications companies it has partnered with — Rest of World