Ecuadoreans head to the polls on Sunday in a referendum that poses security and economic policy questions, but more broadly serves as a political test for President Daniel Noboa. Noboa won a truncated mandate in snap elections last year and faces general elections next February. Polling suggests voters are likely to support the government in this weekend’s referendum.
Most of the questions are security related, and Noboa’s militarized crackdown on organized crime, launched after a series of violent coordinated attacks in January, is popular. Cedatos estimates 85% of the country approves of Noboa’s security policies.
Of the 11 questions, eight focus on insecurity, one on corruption, one on international arbitrage, and one on labor contracts — they require 50% to pass. (AS/COA)
Voters will be asked to approve maintaining military deployment for internal security, extraditing accused criminals, and increasing prison sentences for crimes including terrorism and drug trafficking. (Reuters)
But voters can approve or disprove individual questions, and those related to economic issues — like flexibilization of labor contracts and recognizing international arbitration. Noboa could be hurt by daily power cuts ordered by the government in response to nationwide energy shortages.
Many analysts believe Noboa’s internationally condemned raid on Mexico’s Quito embassy earlier this month, in order to capture former vice president Jorge Glas, was likely aimed at drumming up domestic support for the referendum. (AS/COA)
Haiti
Critics condemned the U.S. restarting of deportation flights to Haiti, yesterday, as “inhumane.” Human rights activists who warned that deportees would likely be targeted by the criminal factions who control most of the country, reports the Guardian. (See yesterday’s briefs.)
Yesterday’s deportation flight caught many immigrant advocacy groups by surprise, reports the New York Times. The U.S. Biden administration had not carried out deportations to Haiti since February, according to the Miami Herald.
A coalition of civil society groups is pushing for France to pay billions of dollars to Haiti in reparations for payments extracted from the country post independence — a cost so significant that many Haitians blame it for two centuries of turmoil, reports Reuters.
Migration
“Cuba's government is willing to accept more deportation flights from the U.S. of Cuban migrants, who have traveled to the southern border in record numbers over the past three years, a top Cuban official told CBS News.”
Regional
As the global elite pushes back against economic laissez faire orthodoxy, the Global South chafes against the mandates of the Bretton Woods international financial institutions, which are still advocating austerity and Washington Consensus policies, reports the Washington Post’s WorldView column.
Delving far deeper into the topic, Brazilian thinker Marcos Nobre highlights the neoliberal paradigm that underlies calls for a new Bretton Woods consensus, in the Ideas Letter. But, he warns, the reformist moment threatens to leave Global South countries trapped – with untenable costs for democracy.
Miguel Lago explores how to democratically respond to emergency situations, taking COVID-19 as a jumping off point to explore experiences of participatory budgeting, sortition and deliberative mini-publics. (Ideas Letter)
Around 34,000 people from more than 100 countries attended the second Web Summit Rio in Brazil this week, reports Catherine Osborn in the Latin America Brief. “The event, which highlights Latin America’s start-up scene, has quickly become the region’s largest tech conference.”
The Associated Press analyzes the ongoing Panama Papers trial.
Brazil
“A U.S. congressional committee released confidential Brazilian court orders to suspend accounts on the social media platform X, offering a glimpse into decisions that have spurred complaints of alleged censorship from the company and its billionaire owner Elon Musk,” reports the Associated Press.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva officially recognized two more Indigenous territories, yesterday, but said he decided not to sign off on four others because they still need to be cleared by people currently occupying them, reports Reuters.
The announcement brings the total number of new reserves during Lula’s term to 10, reports the Associated Press. Speaking at a ceremony in Brasilia, Lula said Indigenous peoples should be patient as he seeks to fulfill his pledge of creating 14 new territories.
Venezuela
Venezuela’s opposition is in turmoil ahead of the July presidential election — much of it engineered by President Nicolás Maduro who seems poised to win a third mandate in a vote that nobody really considers free or fair, reports Bloomberg.
Regional Relations
“Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro broke a deal with Washington, but economic coercion is not going to make things better,” argues Maya Krainc at Responsible Statecraft. (See yesterday’s post.)
El País tracks the history of U.S. sanctions against Venezuela, spanning three administrations and with a decidedly checkered record. (See yesterday’s post.)
German Finance Minister Christian Lindner rejected Brazil's proposal to tax the super-rich, indicating a challenging path for it to gain widespread G20 support, reports Reuters.
Argentina formally requested to join NATO as a global partner, yesterday. (Associated Press)
Argentina
Argentine President Javier Milei has maintained his popularity, despite significant economic difficulties, many related to his austerity policies. The reason for that lies in part in a lack of alternatives, reports Americas Quarterly.
Uruguay
Rising prices in Argentina are ending cross-border shopping from Uruguayans, reports El País.
El Salvador
“El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele released the father of a Salvadoran soccer player from prison after the athlete published a plea for his release on social media,” reports the Associated Press.
Mexico
The New York Times travels AMLO’s signature Maya Train development.